Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
Sounds bit pathetic - does not it! New low is defined by closing price. LTH is no badge of honour - do not spread panic but just sell off if the kitchen is too hot. Apply whatever conservative DCF to future cash you like and also your personal risk multiple to the receivable and to the odds of production increase and what speed. Just do not spread gossip about the the company ceasing to be a going concern soon. The contract will be grandfathered. Payment when it begins , will be much more regular. In the mean time manage your risk - position sizing etc will help. If you are overconcentrated then that is your fault and we do not want to know if your confidence is waning. May be that is a matter of mental health. Lastly diversify, look across the pond. The technical rally is perhaps now rotating into energy again. GKP will do fine unless you are having margin calls. I have very little time to run a crew. Honest and sensible investors here will make decent, realistic profit in time. However, time is a relative matter! 3 p a month of loss of share value and does not matter in case of consolidation where remaining reserves and potential reserves will be considered (while the current contract and the terms apply).
Finally, there is acknowledgement that monthly cash burn is $ 6 M only rather than another pedantic misinformation that it was $20 m a month and there by creating panic as to the going concern status of GKP. This was blatant and pathetic. How much hard I try to give these group of know-alls benefit of doubt, they prove that they have some interest in highlighting the negative side of this story. A month perhaps to get things back to reasonably normal.T rucking even at discounted rate due to transport cost and a much reduced volume (10-20 k bopd) is better than nothing and good of the board to think of this, at the least. If we assume that receivables will be paid, GKP will be back to 180 p soon. Increased steady production is now required for ongoing share of the IRAQI budget - so cause for increased production will align GKP with both Iraqi and KRG interest and there will be inevitable consolidation at some point. I do not see chance of TSC replacing PSC - these contracts will be grandfathered. May be trend for consolidation of oil producers at a good price (where GKP will be a winner)will be encouraged to pave the way for imposition of TSC with a couple of big IOCs for the Kurdish oilfields for the sake of harmonisation with the Southern Iraq. Unless one is leveraged or very concentrated, there is no reason to panic and certainly no reason to spread panic or tweaking up or down figures wrongly. If we have steady payments under over all oversight from Iraqi Government, there will be no reason for 20 percent discount to future cash flow. A steady share price of 250 p with steady dividends is a very reasonable and conservative expectation at 55 k bopd with preserved current PSC.
typo - there will most certainly be a calmer stretch of waters and that is not in the price. The point was that such upsets are more than calibrated in the price of 190 or so with very high discount for geopolitical risk already built in for future earnings without taking the prospect of increased production in consideration - 100 p for cash and receivables and the rest for profit oil for the next 10 years or so at current production, highly discounted. It should not go lower than that unless price of oil plummets and recession brings demand to near zero that is very unlikely.
on the other hand - it is very likely that the existing contracts with IOCs will be Grandfathered. Payments will be regular.
KBT discount will go down and vanish. Cycle of cost recovery with few months lag depending on production. With execution, production will significantly increase. Oil will hover between $75-95. Back to 200 p real quick and then the FDP and add some discounted value for the future earning that is really not too far out.
Steady dividend at least 20-30 p and at 7% yield that should command a price of 240-310, when things steadies itself with regular payment. Capital structure is fine as it is but GKP may chose to have debt for the gas treatment plan. Discounted even at 20 % , a price of 190-200 p today will take care of the geopolitical risk more than adequately. There is significant profit to make both for holders and most definitely for those who bought between 130 and 150. What is not to like? Disappointed with never ending unreasonable incentives. There will perhaps be a calm stretch of waters but that is in the price. Oil will find its way to the market. The lifting cost is low. The reservoir is looked after and the production has been more or less replaced. Expectation and dreams of early days have most certainly been tarnished and some LTHs have been duped. Some of them have turned bitter and spend their life in these discussion boards. But this is not a bad investment, now. Not sure why on a daily basis wisdom at 20 % DCF, muddled theories and broadly fraudulent angst are pumped out and some LTHs also begin to squirm. GKP is not leverage friendly and the MMs descend to drive home that weakness. If you learn to live with the stock , hold a core holding and re-size as appropriate, it is not too bad. Having said that 320 was a good place to shake hands but I guess there are some unfinished business still and so is for some very decent LTHs. We need efficient people at the helm of the company and execution.
for me it is unnecessary wastage of cash in hand on future earning that is laced with execution risk and fluctuations of oil price and we are paying top of the market valuation for that privilege. If the tax loss is not utilised soon or taken away by change of government, the deal is absolute stupid. An imported big shareholder as savvy as Mercuria will impede smart moves and freedom of decisions/take overs or future total sale or whatever but most certainly will undermine the share holder interests. Vote no.
I keep telling myself that surely the honourable judge will discharge her honourable duties before she retires. I wish Bogart and co all the prosperity for smart presentation. Just that I am getting increasingly unsure about the prospect of a richer retirement and prosperity of my dead money in this share. When will this fantastical rate of return materialise? Covid is behind us and the pace of progress of cases through courts have accelerated but the bottom line has not improved much to so far. Perhaps another New year of promises - we need to have something other than YPF case to attract new buyers. Out of the money call purchase indicates nothing but an effort for a quick small gain and no one will hold on to the strike price. Hope is a desperate thing. We need more than a sleek presentation and Bogart seems to be good at that only. All that said , I am not selling now.
$53M expense is inappropriately high for GA and payment and I know that someone will defend that that is how top legal professionals are paid but they are eating up the lunch of the share holders! At this rate will they settle the 2024 and 2025 debts - only CB knows. No wonder that the market is never convinced and MMs can simply toy with the share price whenever they like.
Are we lending the company money to keep them in profitable employment? $53 M operating profit and negative at the bottom line. Not sure when we will see some lumpy proceeds to the bottom line. The rather arrogantly sophisticated 'thus spake CB and the team' is little hollow at this point. Favourable YPF is the buffer otherwise this is just a heavily indebted company . The opportunity cost of this investment can prove to be formidable. but I am perhaps still greedy. Taking on 75% of the high reward/higher risk allocation style may work both ways for the share holders.
NS - Please enlighten us with a really interesting comment going forward from here with 9th August approaching and some meaningful impact on share price. Please dazzle us. No advice regarding patience or long term value etc. Cards/thoughts on the table please. I think Sasa and NKOTB are doing a decent job. If AA walks away, it will stay probably above 300 still and then will go up with catalyst news. The question is whether there will be an improved offer or another buyer.
That allegation has never been made and you are missing the point. I will not further engage with this. Enjoy the sunshine if you can and have a good day.
Well then, moniman, click your heels and salute! Only joking. I think both you and I want ORPH to do well and profit. Just allow genuine LTHs to express their opinion or frustration! Some of us are perhaps more patient than others and patience is not always virtue in investment. The company executives need to be accountable and taken to tasks. Have a good day!
That is a completely false assumption and extremely misleading. The primary decision is selling and the market maker provides the function of offering a market, so that here is a steady market although with a hefty spread so that profit is made out of the transaction. There is no such divinely patient buyer. Sophisticate investors buy a stock they like and collect premium by selling an option. Although Mr Buffet talks about holding for ever a well chosen stock , he collects rent through option premiums. I hope you will not issue another marching order to someone who doses nor share your stubborn unquestioning optimism! People are selling because they are not making money. The company needs to deliver in time and be more efficient with a sense of urgency. Mo is trying to re-set the ambition and conditioning the the expectation down while that is welcome but tactically it is also a face-saving approach while CF is busy without discernible results yet.
Or is it 10 times a day, delusional ramping by a certain gentleman! This gentleman has also a habit of waving good bye or giving marching order to any significant holder who has a rightful legitimate unhappiness with the current share price . Absolutely archetypal ridiculous man!
Moving on. There was a discussion around best metrics to apply. We are not a 'growth' company although we are growing by increasing capacity mostly. Price per sales and sales growth is a decent measure before a company becomes profitable or for a company growing fast with re-investment of earnings. EBITDA takes care of the exaggerated one off costs. ORPH had a few this year. We are a service company. Nothing can beat FCF and P/FCF. Increasing operating margin is crucial. We will be languishing at low teens and it is a long way to 30 per cent. And then the spin offs when will they come with QT, inflation and the dying down animal spirit. Company has and will made progress. Question for the investor is the time cost and further loss of wealth. This ex-CEO selling unilaterally and keeping the stock down - is little overstatement and a tenuous explanation for the decline in share price. People are selling as they are getting impatient. How difficult it is to accept!
I am concerned about the margin. Very poorly drafted RNS and could have been clearer. We need to know the visibility of earnings and when they will be received rather than an illusory grandiose estimate of booked contract over next three years. I liked CF but his enthusiasm is now bordering on deliberate misleading. A significant chunk of my portfolio is stuck here and can no work out the time scale for redemption. How long LTH are expected to be patient and indulgent! And spin offs are proving to be a joke! Revenue estimates given by the company is not correct as they are rather fuzzy and we are never given a year by year breakdown. And all this with the tailwind of the pandemic and renewed interest in vaccine. Time is money - CF stand up and deliver and Mo need to prove that it is more than a confident smile and sound bytes that investors expect. The question now is to hold for long or think of opportunity cost. Please spare me some cheap optimistic quips - the executives need to be reminded that they have not been fair with the investors.
very poor facilitation - did not ask any difficult question. Moe talks fast and has a wider grin than Cahal and talks faster. Getting bit tired with the time cost of this investment. They mentioned cash - but is it profit - we need clarity of accounting method. For spin offs - SPAC may not get off the ground for a long time , given the current US market situation. Will the increased capacity convert into increased revenue - time will tell. Seems like, we have to hold this sublime can for at least another 6 months
What a spectacular advice!
'OO is very cash generative though, so fundamentals are sound in terms of expected EBITDA.' - care to share with us the numbers.
This very chilled guy posts twice day for last few days and spreading wisdom.
Absorb the content of my post first. ORP is a LTH for me. CF needs to strike a balance between deafening silence and ubiquitous interviews. I still think that he is a good, hard working CEO.
Earnings, profits, audited statements that what the market need to see - Dear Watson.
in the mean time many thanks for your most helpful advice and that was really hot!
I generally support CF and a significant LTH. But it is pathetic to bask in the reflected glory of being associated with innovative and successful products. and to blame on vanishing small time investors and now on Putin. The value of our company is directly related to the bottom line and the trajectory of earnings going forward and capacity building. It is time now for CF to give clear directions. He said he will sort out Poolberg in weeks in December 2021. He really needs to show that he means and does what he says. It is time for a detailed update. Investors should not be kept in the dark till the time of annual results. This man is beginning to disappoint me by his silence and yes performance. Where is Elrico when you need another dose of CF! I have not given up hope for redemption yet but this is really a torture.
GKP(1) or GKP(2)? 0.8 0R 0.783? 12 payments or 10 payments per year? to dividend adjust or not? cost oil pool is shrinking fat - OMG? put up or shut up? - Questions...questions.
GKP has become like a story told by 'idi*t(s), full of sound and fury, signifying nothing'. Let us do a rough calculation.
The point is GKP earns profit oil $5 per every produced barrel if oil is around $75/44 k production and that equates to at least $80 million per year. GKP will be able to dish out $50 M dividend easily and that can go on till the end of the PSC. If the price hovers around 240 p, one gets 7.5% return easily. A base case as above is great find for dividend investors and particularly the retired folks and I understand that there are quite a few here! We can do without anxious posting of 2-3 post a day (78 posts in a certain case in last 30 days) or progress of FDP or cranking up of production. Just going steady on the back of routine well maintenance, workovers and just by not damaging the reservoir. No need for valiant re-structuring or incurring debt. If the time comes and an oil major is happy after looking at the formidable production data that GKP now have and are confident of geophysics of the field and the potential of untapped resources/eventual reserves, GKP will be bought out . It is not a high probability event but it can happen and even at a short notice. In the meantime, I am happy to hold and receive dividends while I am not expecting huge volatility as the current trajectory of oil price is certainly not south-bound over the next 12-18 months at least. Of course, I will be happier with more production and contemporary updates. A higher production and a higher share price up to 275-300 p can be a high probability event in immediate to midterm. A takeover price can be significantly higher but that is dependent on many other factors. If GKP morphs into a boring and a very decent dividend aristocrat, the price will slowly and surely, inch up as fund managers will get interested. GKP needs new investors without much baggage and this board does not need tediously verbose difficult personalities with camouflaged intentions that are really not honourable. Let us also separate the personal outcome of TK from the story of GKP. I have not seen anything to suggest that the oil has vanished. I note a tedious naysayer is reviving some old Gramacho post on the other site! There also has been disappearance of some persistent naysayers. The tapping of those barrels and production may have turned out to be more challenging but not impossible. This is where the oil major link has to emerge has a real possibility and the government of the country and the interest of GKP may find some helpful alignment to secure such involvement. It has been a long and winding road. Do not worry , be happy!
Even now - 'negatives(alongside positives)'! The language , dear fellow!
What about positives and negatives in equal measure - no subtle, intellectual, technical insinuation in one direction.
A balanced discussion and not pushing an obvious agenda.
So the ticking troupe is out and I am sure the language will deteriorate. Goodbye!
read carefully before jumping in to comment. I do not express any tinted or tainted comments. You have a habit of offering and broadcasting advices with a laughable air of superiority based on god knows what? My point was of transferring some unfounded ideas from the other board. I know that you are no bull but but not sure that you are no bear! Are you looking forward really for a positive update or is it an attempt to redeem yourself! It is bit of a wastage of my time to engage here but it seems that a group of veiled naysayers are trying to take over this forum. A lot of very genuine and honourable people had invested here and do not take cheap jibes at them. Trade away, sell away, find a new investment, make money but do not haunt the board and moan and groan. I seriously wish you success with your investment and peace of mind.