Why tungsten prices are rising so fast: inside the supply crunch - The Oregon Group2 May 2026 13:30
- Tungsten prices surge to record levels, with Rotterdam APT trading at US$3,185/MTU, up 350% year-to-date and nearly 900% over 12 months
- China controls roughly 80% of global mine supply and dominates the downstream APT, powder and carbide chain
- Tungsten demand forecast to rise from 143kt in 2025 to 210kt by 2035, a 47% increase, driven by defense, aerospace, semiconductors and industrial carbide demand
- US has no domestic tungsten mine production and faces a defense procurement deadline from January 1, 2027, when Chinese, Russian, Iranian and North Korean tungsten set to be barred from key military applications
The price of tungsten has gone vertical with gains over the past year outpacing those gold and oil. The Rotterdam ammonium paratungstate (the benchmark intermediate product for tungsten) trades at US$3,185 per metric tonne unit, up 350% this year and about 900% over the past 12 months (as per April 2026)....
CONCLUSION
The big shock in the tungsten market has been China’s export restrictions but, even if China were to remove the restrictions, the fundamentals of the tungsten market have changed long-term. Demand is rising sharply just as supply from China is deteriorating.
Non-China tungsten projects are limited and now carry a strategic premium.
The tungsten trade is no longer about whether the metal matters, but about whether the West can rebuild a supply chain before China’s leverage tightens further.
https://theoregongroup.com/commodities/tungsten/why-tungsten-prices-are-rising-so-fast-inside-the-supply-crunch/