Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Excellent analysis of political situation from FT.
Remember that Yanfolila is tucked away in the far south-west of Mali, against the border with Guinea!
https://www.ft.com/content/7b1f266d-af41-4b0b-9938-61b0704aaf3e

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8676411/Fresh-crisis-Boohoo-audits-18-factories-suggest-workers-paid-little-3-hour.html
It's hard to see how any institutional investor can stay invested in Boohoo now. It would make a mockery of their own ESG policies. Therefore, this share still has a long way to fall.

Hi CautionYourBlast!
Not only do hybrids need catalytic converters, but those cats need very high loadings of palladium and rhodium to deal with the emissions from the ICE engine, which is turning on and off all the time.
In all this, it's also worth remembering that loadings of PGMs in catalytic converters (per vehicle) are increasing as emissions regulations are tightened up around the world. This is an ongoing process (Europe6, China 6, India 6 etc.).
I make it that demand for palladium is currently very healthy, and demand for rhodium even more so (it's all but irreplaceable). Platinum demand, I'd guess, will remain a bit flat, as it is not well-suited for use in cats for petrol engine vehicles due to the high temperatures involved. Hopefully, it can catch a bid as a precious metal, or from widespread hydrogen fuel cell adoption.
Current quarter for SLP should be another super-profitable quarter, like Q1 2020. Q1 profit was $25m, this one should rival that, judging by the basket price.

Hi OL!
Thanks very much for sharing your notes.
FWIW, I also read the GoldPanda article on Seeking Alpha and was surprised by how sloppily researched it was. I almost signed up to the site to leave a rude comment on it, but then couldn't be bothered.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/aug/28/revealed-auditors-raised-minimum-wage-red-flags-at-boohoo-factories

Hi Ragnar!
I'm gobsmacked by EUA. I'd reckon its true value is about 5% of its current mcap. A lot of people are going to lose a lot of money there. I do wonder if it isn't all a scam of some kind.
As for unloved metals, how about adding lead to your list? Unwanted, toxic...
If you do ever visit Tharisa, you could drop in on the neighbours (SLP) as well...

It's hard to believe that any board could be this quiet. Days can pass without even a small trade.
And yet this isn't some tiny penny stock enterprise. But a working, profitable medium-sized mining concern with decent prospects.
How many shares are actually in free float? It must be only a tiny percentage of the company.

https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-08-26/Hummingbird-Resources-maintains-guidance-increases-revenue-by-one-third.html

If Hummingbird produce to guidance and the gold price stays where it is now, then a £35m profit estimate is probably a bit mean for this year, IMO. I"m thinking £40 to £45m. Unless there is a lot of investment into Kouroussa, of course, but that benefits the company in a different way.
As for the Coris Bank loan, yes, there is no point in paying it back early as the penalties for early payment are so heavy(!). I imagine Hummingbird will take out another loan, probably from Coris again, to finance Kouroussa, as it's the safe and responsible thing to do. But they could just about manage to scrape by without one, relying on their own free cash flows. The interest rate on the new loan should indeed be a few points lower, to reflect Hummingbird's improved credit rating.

Hi Northman!
Not so much the actual machinery, but all the expendables used in the mining process - chemicals for the CiL plant, diesel, explosives, spare parts, two of everything etc.
Given the coup, it's fortunate / far-sighted that HUM are well supplied on site in Mali.

Hi Perroverde!
Thanks for putting me right about the payment date for the Petra KX36 deal. I misread the original RNS.
All in all, it really is a good deal - I guess Petra had no other buyers and just decided that they had much bigger problems to deal with.

I don't understand how so many posters on this board can blithely ignore the current share price and market cap!
That is what the market values this company at, taking into account all known risks and rewards.
If further equity is to be issued, it will be issued at the share price at that moment, or just above or below it. (The last raise was at 21.5p). If a takeover bid comes in, anything which offers a 100% premium is very likely to be accepted by a majority of shareholders.
That's how it goes in the real world!

That's Marsfontein mine in the background of the pic, isn't it?
I have a few questions here:
1) What happened to the analysis of the drill cores that hit the M1 (Marsfontein) kimberlite in South Africa? Surely we can expect follow-up on that!
2) Is the purchase of the bulk sampling plant (and other Botswanan assets from Petra) linked to Maibwe? Is Maibwe about to emerge from its legal "deep freeze"? And is Maibwe as prospective as certain Botswanan officials have hinted in the past?
3) Presumably a smallish placing will be required here shortly, not least to pay Petra the $150K first payment for the bulk sampling plant. My impression is that it is being held back. Why? Does James Campbell want to get out some good news before it? And if so, what good news?

I'd be happy with a "steady rise back up to a less stupidly undervalued level"!
This share is proof that markets aren't efficient, especially with smaller companies. How can a fast-growing debt-free cash-rich stable well-managed Zulu company trade at a P/E of just over 3 (not allowing for its huge cash pile)?

I'm expecting some buying here this week ahead of the final results (website says "September", last year they landed 2nd September) and the dividend announcement.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-mali-security/some-agreement-but-issues-remain-as-west-african-mediators-meet-mali-coup-leaders-idUKKBN25J0ML?il=0

Hi Velo!
I thought that didn't sound like SLP! Which stock, out of idle curiosity?

Rhodium now up to $12,500/oz (JMAT price). There seems to be a real shortage in the market, thanks to all the lost SA supply.
Palladium stable at $2062/oz.
Platinum caught up in gold's downdraft, is down at $890/oz.
Overall, SLP's basket price should be near the highs of Q1.
IMO, Sylvania Platinum should change their name to Sylvania Rhodium - that would better reflect where the bulk of their revenues come from.

Hi Sastech!
I think the point is that the central banks will NOT raise interest rates to rein in inflation over the next few years. They will let the economy run "hot" if they can, perhaps dangerously so. In truth, it's the only realistic way out of the dreadful debt situation we are already in. The trick for the central banks will be to not let inflation out of hand and turn into hyper-inflation.
IMO, this is a good time to borrow money to buy a house, if the banks will let you. Payments won't rise (as interest rates will remain low), but inflation should whittle away at the real value of the loan.
And, yes, gold should shine under this scenario.
As for Modern Monetary Theory (aka the Magic Money Tree), I think I posted Douglas Adams' proposal to adopt the leaf as legal tender yesterday. It's just like that.

Hi GoldenBull!
It may well be that the military "have cut the Gordian knot", and forced BOTH ex-President Keita and the questionable Imam Dicko out of politics. If so, this would be a good thing, IMO.
As regards the borders, remember that borders have two sides. The military in Mali feel secure enough to open the borders from the Mali side. But they are still closed from the side of Mali's neighbours (i.e. ECOWAS). I guess another week or two will pass before some compromise is reached over that.