Member Info for Tigar

Just realised Enquest is a green energy company, as at 60p I can afford to go green if the rest of shareholders do same Enquest could save the planet!

Best in the hands of Magnus operator another opportunity to use infrastructure.

Elixir has applied 3D seismic data analysis and fluid inclusion stratigraphy studies to identify an Upper Jurassic oil prospect on the block named Tiger. The company believes this could be one of the largest undrilled exploration targets in the UK offshore sector, with potential reserves of 90 MMbbl.

Tiger is close to prolific producing fields such as BP’s Magnus, the Shell-operated Penguin cluster, and the more recent Don West development. Each of these fields, Elixir claims, could provide infrastructure to support a development in the event of a discovery.

The Tiger prospect is a direct analogue to Magnus, 5 km (3.1 mi) to the west. All of the play components, i.e. source, migration, trap, seal, and reservoir, work demonstrably at Magnus, Elixir points out.

laidback you are correct but BP is entitled to about 37.5% of Magnus FCF after recovery of capex, and as last years outlay for drilling new wells has been recovered. Although Enquest is producing approx 14,500 Magnus bpd not all of the FCF from those barrels are profit. The 15% of Kraken ring fenced to Sculptor goes to repay the loan from them. Magnus is a profit share arrangement.
FCF is best adjusted allowing for 37.5% of Magnus production going to BP

I think you are forgetting BP.s share of Magnus FCF, I work on 40k per day but still a lot of FCF

Slift
I take your point on net book asset value, but believe that will change dramatically in updated figures with write backs + higher oil price, GE is not now the $100m clear that was projected, plus short term loan is not for the asset value of the company it is for the short term revenue of those assets in preference to all other calls, that is why I suggest they may include option to extend to repay Bonds at a higher rate. I have to trust AB can negotiate well. I bought my car with 3% personal loan and would like some dividends to pay for it.

Slift
I don't see that Enquest is looking to be hard balled by the banks to the extent you envisage, they said they were looking to clear old RCF and clear BP and Sculptor loans and buy GE with a new Short term loan. Why would they clear Sculptor loan at LIBOR + 6.3% early with a dearer loan? They had $890m at 4.75% and a cap of $1.2b at much higher rates. I envisage a lower rate on basic money required with an option to extend to replace bonds in future at higher rate but below the 7% Bonds a possibility.

Slift a bit steep for a non stressed refinance? we have RCF at LIBOR + 4.75% at present with agreed penalties when we went over $800m which we did and have met those penalties and look quite capable of repaying all of RCF even if we need to forward sell a little oil. Banks should be happy with us and looking to lend again for GE and to give headroom for a bit of development costs on existing assets and it is reasonable to expect a bit better rate on non stressed lending, and GE is that looking like it will be a third cheaper to complete purchase in August if reports of 13k bpd at moment are true.

LIBRA + 4.5% for $600m for 3yrs, with $800m cap and option to extend facility in 2023 to repay bonds for further 3 years at LIBRA + 5% that should cover all bases for both sides. And I suppose if we have to have it OO at 20p with promised 1p dividend for 2021 we can but dream.

As much as AB has done a good job he seems to come over like a landowner who raises money from a lumber company to plant trees and thinks they look so good he applies for a preservation order. The point of owning shares in an oil producer is to get a dividend!

Magnus production was hit by operational problems thankfully when oil price was lower! if problems sorted hopefully now selling for $10 extra same goes for Malaysia hopefully it will be back up in time for $100 oil. Hedging looks like it proves to finance that RCF was repayable on time without GE purchase. Would like to have seen debt position doubt they will let that slip at AGM for whatever reason don't want to say at moment must be re-finance discussions? perhaps AB is salting $50m to one side so we don't need OO

My ramblings for figures are, we should have $120m for debt reduction $20m for sculture $100m for RCF. The PIK will increase debt by $40m so that deferred payment should be added to the RCF repayment giving a reduction on RCF of $140m to $ 237m and debt at $1160m

I dare say as hedges are used they have been replaced with higher ones, someone thinks bonds will pay cash? last time we jumped to 24p bonds didn't move perhaps market is getting ready for a re-rate with a good update at AGM

Slift hit nail on head, Enquest to the market is $64m negative Equity, many things have to be accounted for in end of 2021 accounts GE completion, higher oil price massive increase in 2p reserves (267m) was Bentley 2p after EWT, GE allows some tax credits to be re-accounted for.
I am hoping for a bit of clarity in 12th update, a good reduction in debt before new RCF, sale or plans for Enquest Producer, plans for new wells at Magnus and hopefully terms of new RCF with no Open offer required.
We can see Enquest is not $64m negative but that is what Moody's etc see, it is in the accounts. Build it and it will come and AB is not going to let someone nick it from under him though I expect some are eyeing up.

Fannie Mae's proved Moody's is a complete scam they couldn't predict a tide let alone a tsunami why anybody pays them is beyond me.

From strategic report, drilling is not too far away and with higher oil price's my thoughts are they will be keen to arrange ASP
RCF first of course.
"Preparatory works will be undertaken in
2021 ahead of the planned development
drilling programme in 2022. In addition,
following the award of block 211/12b as part
of the 32nd licensing round, the Group will
commence subsurface studies to assess
the block for future opportunities. With 2C
resources of c.35 MMboe, Magnus offers
the Group significant low-cost drilling
opportunities in the medium term, in
addition to an estimated c.250 MMbbls
of remaining mobile oil in place that
requires further evaluation to identify
future drilling and tie-back prospects."

Facts right BP does not get 50% of Magnus production! it gets 50% of FCF of 75% share of Magnus, so should we drill some new wells to increase production after 100% of those cost are recouped BP start getting 37.5% of FCF again. We are very likely to be drilling again soon! All Magnus production is credited to Enquest its the FCF BP have a stake in.

http://www.livecharts.co.uk/MarketCharts/brent.php
There she blows $69 oil that should trigger 18p

Golden Eagle is fast proving an inspired buy! it was projected at $50 oil to pay for itself in 3 years with $100m profit to us mainly from use of Tax credits. At all in costs of $20 this means it was calculated at $30 FCF so at $65 oil that is 50% uplift so equates to $320m + $100m X 50% - $50m uplift in purchase price, I make that $260m profit over the 3 years and if the new wells gush for a few months much of that projection will be in the first year of ownership. Cannot see there is any need for an Open offer.