Member Info for Tigar

FCF in Hi must be quite good? from the presentation Enquest are repaying the Sculptor loan from the new facility they stated $26m for that purpose. At 31st Dec Sculptor was owed $66m so 15% of Kraken has repaid $40m the other 55% of Enquests stake should have $147 to put into the pot.

I think the $75m is on 1st Jan assumptions so could surprise us, prospectus was very much giving the deal assumptions when struck and we all know it will be better than expected, in the short term anyway. If it is the $75m good deal anyway,
But I make it 8 months into $75m = $9.375m 300k barrels per month = $31FCF + $20 costs = $51 as 1st Jan assumption for 2021 oil.

I see that the new facility is repaying 57m Magnus BP loan, 26m Sculpture loan and the full outstanding balance after Jan 25m payment of 352m and will then pay all outstanding GE after OO and allowance for FCF from the asset from Jan1st.
I take that to mean our FCF has built up since Jan's 25m payment, as a war chest for ???? roll on Sept full year figures and confirmation of GE completed and finding out what ???? is.
ii Sipp have accepted OO shares just waiting on Halifax ISA.

By far the best bit of info for shareholders is the 4.25% rate, better than my hoped for 4.5% . It says everything, Bonds next year.
Because most projected figure's are at 1st January with oil at $51 production at 10k we have a good deal, but gives no real insight into were we are at the moment.
With such a good deal going through probably best to do enough but not be rubbing sellers nose in it.

RE: Fcf generation $33 for 2020 and $27 for 2021 20 Nov 2020 12:38
This is headed for a fundraiser which is going to be a disaster for shareholders. Or a buyout below current SP IMHO.
Risk / reward just does not look good to me above 5p.

Of course everyone can change their opinion, I used to think MRC talked bull but most of what he says now about ENQ I agree with, he has seen the light or was he de-ramping in the old days looking to get in cheap.

If OO didn't happen think of the re-rate that would follow. could double the value in minutes?
All will be revealed soon.

Presumably prospectus would like to include official updated figure's for Enquest which will not be released till after 1st half so I would expect it may not be till after 30th June so most likely about 6th July onwards IMHO
Everything should look much better after right backs and updated GE projection's. £1 is coming buy time Bonds are replaced?

TimTimeBond
I never thought of it that way round!
But I read it as a 2yr loan with the option to extend, as Pelle said Enquest FD has already said they saw a $500m Bonds and arranged loan of $500m being a good long term objective. I see having the second part of that plan sorted being an advantage in getting good terms for the refinanced Bonds. I saw TLW refinance from weekness and get $1.8bn at 10.25%
I should have thought the banks have agreed to a 5year loan extension with Bond requirements being reassessed at that time. They would likely be happy if you are using the extension to clear the Bonds but not if you increased the Bonds to repay the 2 year loan. The aim should be to reduce our costs for credit.

romaron
I think you are completely misreading my post, but that's life

Pelle
Agree they are lining up the ducks and the Banks have cooperated to that end by agreeing to a 5 year extension now, if they are happy at the 2 year stage this is I believe a master stroke in the Bond negotiations as we have no barrels to be held over so we may well be back to 5-7% bond deal. Looking forward to prospectus to find out the rate on the loan and the extension.
Of course if oil price plays ball Bonds could be repaid and any new ones will be for the next project. As it should be.

Romaron you have not given your thoughts on the 2yr loan having the option to extend to 7years why not just give 7 year loan?
my thoughts are that it is because they will only extend to 7 years if they approve of Bond refinance. They will not approve a TLW new Bond situation. And will look at our new Bond proposals at the time and rubber stamp approval of extended loan facilities, or have the right to walk. But they are confident enough in Enquest to give the extension option now! That gives Enquest the advantage in the Bond negotiations to come.

I thought it was more that when Bonds mature they don't want Enquest doing a TLW and issuing more Bonds and also having $750m of credit with them they have given OK to extend the $750m if they are happy with the amount of Bonds on their refinance? perhaps if POO stays high the $750m will be enough to clear them up or half the number of new ones?

Well done Z.F.G. looks like you got straight answer to a straight question! cant believe that wasn't asked at AGM
If they time it for after August interest payment may be tempted to sell Bonds to go completely into Equity but suspect problem will be having to put up the cash to then find we are scaled back too heavily! don't expect much discount?

Brent now at $74, GE deal is looking like a perfectly timed coup new well's churning out 30% more than estimated even if only for a few months and FCF $20 above deal assumptions, the $100m expected profit over 3 years is looking more like $400m

There is a diff Tullow had to spin as hard as possible the 10% rate away without it they were in trouble. To Enquest new finance is just part of everyday business.

My take and I also may be wrong but I thought Suncor have put GE assets into a new company that Enquest will takeover and put into Enquest heather with its tax credits therefore this would require shareholder approval with or without OO hence size of OO is still up for debate. Would not be surprised to find a buyer for a placement sitting in the wings prepared to pay a premium for a stake. This has 2023 £1 party all over it.

We await the prospectus! Sounds like as I have suggested before we have a long term arrangement giving us headroom to cover Bond repayment in 2023 we need to see the cost will the 7 year deal enable repayment of Bonds below current 7%
With $70 oil 7 years gives Enquest all the headroom to unlock Tiger, Bressay and Bently

Is the combustion engine dead, or might there be a new way (couple of clever girls)
https://news.mit.edu/2019/removing-co2-from-power-plant-exhaust-0729

25,000 = £2m buy today next interest payment should be 3.5% cash in August so could see more buys going through next few days. Shares are a screaming buy the new Finance requirement is coming down daily GE price looks like being a loan of $170m extra, if we have the OO of $50m.
We could be debt free in less than 2years with $75 oil but suspect they have other plans, I have a 10 bagger feeling beginning to grow about this share.

Why they don't use nature is beyond me, farm oysters lobsters clams crabs they absorb huge quantities of co2, Limestone is co2 carbon captured from the past you will not have to produce power to capture it, eat the oysters and use shells as aggregate. They complain about cutting down the rain forests but clear the seas of all the creatures that capture more than any tree.
17p for Enquest is is about as mad as not farming shellfish.