Member Info for Thor121

It was clear that with the industry veterans onboard that they were going to finance it themselves. Why wouldn't they. Very deep pockets and plenty of friends in high places (especially in the Middle East for whom this is chicken feed). Having said that I had anticipated that existing ZIOC shareholders might retain 20-25%. Yes the NSR and back end participation look attractive. on paper but how many on here are going to hold on 5 plus years for that? Not many, by which time the shares will have been hovered up by those insiders with more cash, patience and knowledge.

Well...no surprise we've not had an RNS. TOMORROW!

Tuesday is the day....not sure why suddenly we should be excited about Monday. No chance IMHO.

Don't get me wrong as someone that has alot of shares I'm not being negative on the SP just trying to be realistic on the current value. As as when they are able to get production up to previous levels (as Shell had stopped spending) CNE have stated that they SHOULD be able to generate cashflows of £100 million a year. Then there is the prospect of getting market rates for gas when they bring new basins on stream. Then the market would think again about the value of Egypt. It will take time but the upside is huge. It will not go to £3 a share as some have indicated immediately but no reason why it shouldn't in a year or 2. We also have the unkown of the affect on the SP of the buyback starting next year. I see very little downside, bar India messing aorund on the payment. We had a recent spike to £2.10 on the more postive India news and with the promise of a large distribution I'm sure we will seem that level again soon. After that it depends on whether the big boys want to hold on and give CNE a chance to prove the value of their purchase. I'll be sticking around but respect those that don't. Anyhow interesting that the SP recovered today indicating that deeper pockets than ours see past Peel's 180p valuation.

Seems my figure were off:
$1.1 blllion is £1.60 per share not £1.80.
Egypt 47p per acquistion price.
Waldorf contingent payment due 2021 for UK assets is 8p and possibly more. More in future years.
Mexico - hopefully the appraisal well will add 5p minimum.
Assign zero value to ther assets as require capital to hopefully realise value.
So as things stand asset value is around £2.20.

Fast response.

Yes, they are the cumulative payments over the 2021 to 2025 period.
Very roughly, if the average price for the year was ~$65, the 2021 payment would be $55m. If the price was $70, the payment would be ~$65m.
We should be able to shelter the proceeds.

Yes, you're right.....going to ask what the anticipated payment for this year will be. Will report back. Thanks for pointing it out and not sure why I had not picked up on this....

Well 227p plus 14p plus Mexico - I'm sure they'll wait for the appraisal well.
If the Mexico block has 300 - 500 million barrels, assuming 30- 40% recovery and a 15% share it should be worth 10p plus but will need further drilling to prove.
Egypt will require substantial capex over next couple of years as Shell basically stopped spending.
So need to reduce cash to fund exploration there and in the UK and elsewhere and apply a reasonable discount.
So talk of £3 is fanciful but well over £2 seems logical.

This year will average over $60 so that is $100 million guaranteed for 2021 or another 14p per share. Hopefully next year over $70 and then there will be an extra $75 million to add to the $100 million. Over $80 in any year from 2021 to 2025 means $240 million total.

Yes that will be extra..in time.

At year end, net of some debt taken on to acquire the Egypt assets, they will have $1.1 billion in cash, assuming they have received the Indian money. That is £800 million or £1.80 in NET cash, nothing more. I have spoken to the management for confirmation.
They also have Egypt which they paid approx £240 million or approx 47p a share.
They also have Mexico. The appraisal well is being drilled now and will hopefully add some value.
They have additional assets that will require E&P spend (UK, Suriname, Mauritania etc)..so assign zero value.

So the value atm is approx 227p. (House broker says 225p).
Fingers crossed the Mexico drilling will add some value and the drilling costs are included in the year end net cash figure.

Indian refund is HOPED for by year end but no guarantee, hence statement expecting shareholders distribution in early 2022.

On a separate note. Why would CNE management accept HBR paper? HBR has £2 billion in debt and about £4 billion in decomm liablities. Very much doubt they could not do the deal in cash.