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Slift, what do you think about the possibility of tullow canceling the EG sale in the end if brent keeps on performing? I read sth. about a 2mio fine for both sides if the necessary steps for finalizing the asset sale are not done. on the other side tlw always does what they said before in recent times. I cant imagine shareholders will reject the EG sale. anyway even if it's done it will help the share price in mid term. maybe we lost some upside but better to have a sp of 100p in 2 years than being left with 50% equity for shareholders after a diluting equity raise at current sp lvls...
all in all both are right this time. jubilee thinks this disposal was right to ensure they will be able to carry on, which I really wonder about as he was flooding the board with uganda sale negativity over and over again, being out of the same reason they did the panoro sale now... slift is right as well. the panoro sale is a little bit better in value than the uganda one, but not anywhere near good in the longer term. both assets in EG and gabun got a very low opex and very big upside potential (just remember tullow reentering by using it's rights q1 2020 into the dusaffu licence...). the problem is tullow does need the money now to be able to satisfy the lenders in the short term. the sale isnt value accretive in the longer term. if tullow could be sure lenders would agree and say that short fall is no problem it would be good for all not to do this asset sale in the mid to longterm, but tullow wants to ensure they have their future in their own hands. yes,. It's money they can reinvest into ghana, but I think at current oil prices they would have had it anyway, so I dont see a real gain here. also keep in mind the effective sale day is 1.7.2020. this means all profits since then till closing of the sale will be substracted from the 140mio to pay. And the profits from 2021 that were already planned in with high OP wont be there anymore. the 2021 guidance will be lowered to 54 000 - 60 000 bopd now.
again it was the right decision to do if you want to have the direction of your future in your own hands. same like uganda. they had the decision to diapose kenya or EG plus dusaffu. Hopefully they did the right thing!
I cant see me wasting your time, better to argue with me than posting the same nonsense things all over again on this board :)
but Im not only interested in your profession as it gives me maybe a better understanding on why you act as you act but also in your shareholdings. you know mine now, may I ask what your holding and avg in tullow is right now? maybe many of us can understand better what you say and why. it's not a secret, is it?
u can believe me or not. isnt such a big lie 2015 or 2014... maybe you can remember every single share you ever purchased and at exactly the right year without looking it up. I was quite near with my Initial guess, wasnt I?
just looked it up, my first purchase was in 2015, 500 shares for 300p. I held 2500 shares in nov 2019 when it dropped down after production guidance cut, ceo and COO leaving the company and heavy oil news from guyana. I then topped up after the first fall to 150p and some more at 130p, then at 50p, the most at 10p and some more on the way up. I do hold 110 000 shares atm after selling 50 000 at 28p when I saw an opportunity to put it into touchstone exploration at 120p. so by going from 2500 to 160 000 shares I hope you can figure out how someone could reach an avg of 20p :)
you should go for ceo and do the mcdade dance, praying for low hanging fruits and failing to reach them because not doing your homework properly because you were busy telling investors lies - misleading them with a dividend you arent able to pay, leaving the company nearly going bust. shareholders would love you lol... btw just for my personal interest what is your real profession, or better to ask what was it? you seem to not working at all as you are around here posting 24/7...?
Jubilee, it doesnt matter what the real coupon is on shell or bp bonds. you just cant compare tullow with them. they are so much bigger and highly profitable and not only dependend on upstream segment plus diversified over the whole world. but you will also find many oil companys with 10-12% coupons out there, so 6-7 doesnt sound that bad. what about my mutations post? was a guess, but quite right in hindsight? mrna vaccine still works on the mutations, moderna not 100% but far better than the worse vector vaccine of astra zeneca. and even that one (not changeable in 6 weeks but ca 1 year) has a benefit on the south africa mutations. maybe it doesnt prohibit getting the infection, but it makes the sewere form less probable. so what is your point?
yes, my first shares I bought lost 85% to the date, but I did average down on the way down, a pitty not all at 10-20p, but my avg is around 20p now so Im still in profit overall and I can afford to lose the whole money as I tripled my portfolio through other investments since covid start. so I am not worried.
slift I know that it is risky, but I hold through the last 10 months where the risk of failing was much higher, so I will still risk the money now with so many positiv factors developing in the next months. I wasnt surprised at all about the new production guidance of 63 000 bopd for 2021, you were able to guess it after cmd in november and official ghana production figures of jubilee and TEN fordert november and december. thats the lack of drilling which will turn around soon as we now know!
Jubileey, stop insulting slift. I dont know how you can look into any mirror around you. this foolish, childish spamming with nonsense and false informations, calculations just makes me wonder. the things you say slift is doing wrong are in fact the things you are doing. this is so funny, really. it's like you say 1+1=5 which everyone knows is wrong, then slift says 1+1=2. then you say to slift is wrong and needs to go to school again, instead it's you that should start doing his homework. wtf is wrong with you? even shell and bp and exxon have to pay interest rates of 6-8% on their debt. this is a really good rate for the situation tullow was and is in. and ofc if tlw did what you said, not selling uganda, they wouldnt only have to still put additional capex into uganda they cant afford, fight with corrupt uganda govt and would be bust today, meaning you as a shareholder would have lost everything now. instead dorothy started doing the bad feeling, but absolutely right decisions. rahul starts to adress the operational side now., leasing the business into the right direction. I am a shareholder of tlw since 2014 and I went through everything with them since then, knowing every detail that happened and I still see value and believe they will turn the ship around finally. the high oil price is helping a lot ofc, but even at 50/bbl I believe they will be able to secure refinancing of the bonds. there are other oil companies with far worse situations that recently got their debt refinanced. just give them time. it will come good. Im long here and will stay for years to come. the journey just started. btw keep up the good work slift. a pitty you lost your optimism in tlw, but I can understand that it is a too risky play for you atm. I dont have to be the absolutely same opinion like you are, but I see the understandable logic behind it. it could go either way, I stay positive. things looked far worse 10 months ago....
mutations are ofc not rare in virus. but the flu virus is sth. really different in this case. ofc, no one knows how corona virus developes, but it is far less mutation friendly than the flu virus!
to date over 4000 mutations since appearing originally in china have been reported, none of them changed much. but there have been 2 mutations recently in the uk and in south africa that affect the spike protein. it is the one that helps the virus to get into the human cells. and it is the one that the 2 mrna vaccines target (biontech from germany that cooperates with pfizer to use their big packing infrastructure and transportation infrastructure and the one from moderna a us company that is supported by the us government itself) - there is btw another vaccine from curevac (another german company) that is the next nearest one to produce a working vaccine with very promising results to date, another mrna based. all others are very far from getting to the final stage or have bad results.
the 3 mrna ones all target the spike protein, so mutations there could in the worst case kill their effect. but it's very very unlikely that this will happen, as the spike protein is a really big one where the imun system should find several locations it can use to identify. So I am not really worried about it at all!
Go forward and ask investor relations and you will get this answer if you dont believe me... I dont exactly know why or which things have to be approved (maybe flaring security plans for worst case scenarios, etc.) , but they seem not to be allowed to do a flow test without some paper work. and the answer normally needs 6-8 weeks time. it was the same with cascadura st1 and coho.
They need to get approval from the government first. usually it takes like 6-8 weeks to get approval. thats the reason they didnt test chinook right after drilling and it is the same reason they cant test cascadura first now directly after drilling.