Averaging down10 Dec 2012 08:43
Loads of us got caught. It was a horrible situation. But it wasn't forseeable. Therefore there's no lesson re averaging down. Sometimes its good to and sometimes its not. In my view the error is to think in terms of changing an "average" at all. Buying a stock should be based simply on whether its available at a good price with more likelihood of going up than down over whatever term you are happy to wait for your money back. That decision shouldn't be influenced by whether or not one already holds shares in the company, nor on what price was paid for those shares. Whether you bought those shares at a good price, or what turned out to be a bad price, it can't be changed by buying more. For those that were able to buy more shares around 33p that decison has turned out to be a good one. Its never possible to know for certain.
The one exception to the above would of course be if one already felt over exposed in one company in which case buying more shares could be considered too many eggs in one basket. Something I'm very guilty of myself on this one, annoyingly. I've now reined my buying and selling right back and am trying to be patient for a change in the hope and expectation that SHFT will eventually resolve these issues and come good.
I said this situation wasn't forseeable, but that wasn't quite true. The warnings re the termination of the Eurochem contract were there in the RNS statements to be seen, and it was clear that SHFT wanted payments that Eurochem were reluctant to make. Maybe we all should have been asking how the relationship was bearing up and what EC's reaction was to SHFT stopping work.