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"his morning was merely a combination of Jupiter clearing out and people getting stopped out."
I think this is likely the reason.
If JUP sell their entire stock, are they obliged by the market to release a TR-1 stating their new holding at 0%? Or would such a 0% TR-1 be out of courtesy only?
It's happened for the 2nd day running. The after hours UT trade was at a higher price than the closing price:
25-Aug-22 16:35:12 61.52 263,995 Buy* 162.41k UT
It's also a smaller amount than recent UT trades of 500-600k.
Maybe this is the start of an upward pattern as short sellers (Citadel today) are buying smaller chunks from sellers (Jup still?) in less volatile moves.
Yesterday broke a daily trading pattern that had occurred every day for the last 2 weeks. The pattern before yesterday was chunky sells occurring in the afternoon, and a steep drop towards close followed by a UT trade after 4:30pm at about the lowest price of the day.
Yesterday however, there was no chunky sells in the afternoon, and the UT after 4:30pm was at the highest price of the afternoon.
We'll see this afternoon if yesterday marks a change to an upward pattern in daily trading patterns.
Every day for the last week or so has ended with a significant UT. An educated guess is that this Jupiter selling the last of their holding to BlackRock who'd be buying to close their short. This is based on Jupiter selling significantly, breaching the <5% recently, and BlackRock reducing from 1.20% on 29 July to 0.39% last Friday.
During trading hours the smaller 5-20k buys have created gradual share price rises, whilst the hefty 50-250k sells have created sharp drops.
Today's UT is smaller than previous days. Will these daily chunky buys/sell fade away before the 15 September update?
The City Spy:
A contact confirms JUP selling #THG heavily. "As much as the market will take".
https://twitter.com/TheCitySpy/status/1560314305672781824?t=wHG07MUfCCDxHf1Mp7ZTNw&s=19
Another after hours £678k trade, presumably a buy at 64.87p:
18-Aug-22 17:02:29 64.87 1,045,943 Unknown* 678.50k O
This late trade counters the other £649k trade.
A lot of shares have been exchanged between buyers and sellers today. I wonder if we'll get TR-1's tomorrow revealing today's volatile activity.
Another big trade registered after hours:
18-Aug-22 16:35:20 63.86 1,017,407 Sell* 649.72k
There was at least one other £500k sell today.
If this is a single seller (Jupiter?), and this £649k sell marks the end of it, then we can expect a rebound once the hefty sells dry up.
There have been some very chunky sells in the last 30 minutes.
It's very possible that this is Jupiter selling the rest of their holding since the TR-1 on 8th August when they drop below 5% holding. If that's the case, then once the chunky selling stops I'd expect a bounce back to 70p to repeat the 7 working day pattern from 9th to 17th August.
What baffles me is how ready the market movers are to bring down the share price on such small trades. About at 3rd of trades today are less than £1k, and the vast majority less than £10k. Not the £100k-£500k trades that would indicate that an II is selling.
Yet here we are, a drift from 67.2p down to 63.7p.
What percentage of shareholders is required to approve MM taking this private? What would be the minimum price per share that this majority group of shareholders would allow MM to take it private?
What would happen to the shares of Private Investors if THG were to delist from the LSE and re-list in the US?
A £1m buy has just gone through. That sets the floor at £2.50 a share.
My guess is that the TM Tellworth UK Smaller Companies Fund have accumulated more after their share purchases in May.
Remember that TM Tellworth UK Smaller Companies Fund bought 5.1% of the MPAC's shares on 25th May at £4.01, less than two months ago.
They target £100m to £500m market cap growth companies. They buy shares of companies with 1) a differentiated product, 2) a market leaders in their niche area, 3) are cash generative and 4) management buying their own stock.
They meet with the management of every company, prior to buying shares.
This TM Tellworth UK Smaller Companies fund will be looking for serious profits from their £4.01 per share investment in the medium term. Ignore the short term macro-economic volatility, instead, follow the money.
https://www.tellworth.co.uk/funds/tm-tellworth-uk-smaller-companies/
I agree that the drop is hugely overdone.
As Monday's RNS said, the company expects to report 2022 revenue ahead of last years and 2022 revenue reamains in line with their expectations. The reason why they had to state that FY22 profit "will be significantly below current market expectations" is because they themselves set those expectations talking very bullishly about 2022 in the Full Year Results statement in March 2022.
The shares were £5.60 in January and £3.79 two working days ago. This is a growth company and will return to double digit growth. Global supply chain issues have hit the entire sector, and they will gradually ease over the next 6 months.
Today's £2.24 is overdone, and I think it'll bounce to £3 over the next few weeks. Especially if there's news on the Freyr contract, with their battery cell production development line in Norway to be completed in Q4 2022.
A few recent Form 8.3 RNS's have disclosed Richard Griffiths.
Is it this guy?
"Brecon sheep farmer turned City financier Griffiths floated his boutique investment company Ora Capital Partners on the AIM junior stock market in April 2007, valued at £120m. Griffiths, 42, established Ora after quitting as chairman of listed investment bank and stockbroking group Evolution in 2005. Ora has invested in a string of high-growth UK businesses and while its shares have fallen in the recent stock market turmoil, it is still worth £54.5m. A former Welsh rugby international, Griffiths still has interests in a number of private and quoted companies other than Ora, where his stake is worth £15m. Property in London and these other assets take him to a conservative £32m."
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/richard-griffiths-v2fpnlg5zmq
Zappyman - I share your frustration. This is a share for which Warren Buffet's quote applies: "The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient."
The BOD and Toby have demonstrated an ability to overcome a perfect storm of mostly (but not all) unforeseeable external factors, since 2020. At that time, especially after the collapse of the only production stope, the chances of the Rambler surviving as a going concern were low. Now we have a fully functioning mine with investment in equipment and upgrades that creates resilience by minimising exposure to operational factors.
For me, given the BOD's ability to climb the mountain of financial and logistical challenges, albeit not taking the shortest path, means it's a question of "when" the share price turnaround follows the company turnaround, not "if". I was hoping the "when" was after the December 2021 RNS reflecting on 2022 ambitions, however I do think it will come good after the May production figures and China opens up, bringing a return to global demand for copper.
Not investment advice, DYOR.
"Cash positive operations, now including sustaining capital"
Does that mean April was a profitable month, with 413 tonnes of saleable copper and 160 ounces of saleable gold?
Two further job openings posted today, and two late trades at 31p amounting to £60k.
The mobile crusher will be operational Friday this week, with 17,500 dmt of stockpiled ore to crush into saleable copper and gold.
Onward and upward!
From the 18th January RNS:
"In the lower mine, stope drilling in the LFZ is expected to commence at the *end of the month* following completion of the 2nd egress. Once in place, the ore production cycle will commence in LFZ 760/735 levels and UFZ 790/ 770 levels."
Friday this week is the last trading day of this month.
We're only days from a strong and sustained rise in the share price.
And today the CEO, Joanna Arnold, buys £10k's worth at 114.24p, further demonstrating confidence of the board that the share price will head northwards from here.