Member Info for thewonderer

"The designs by Harland & Wolff and Houlder were thought to have come out on top."

https://www.harland-wolff.com/news/jobs/senior-project-manager-fss-fleet-solid-support/

Posted on the H&W site yesterday.

Job ads have just been posted for two cleaners at Appledore, on the H&W website:

https://www.harland-wolff.com/news/jobs/cleaner-x2/

Presumably to clean up the mess the short sellers made of themselves this morning.

The 9th November RNS said: "Financial close is expected within four to six weeks. The Company will make further announcements at financial close."

6 weeks from that RNS is 21st December, i.e tomorrow.

Might there be an RNS tomorrow confirming the refinancing details and finalisation of the refinancing?

Very insightful comment at 14:45:50 in this committee hearing!

Regarding FSS:

Ben Wallace: "I expect us to sign the detail of contracting in the next few months."

Vice Admiral Paul Marshall CBE, Director General, Ships: "Hopefully by new year."

HARL shareholders are in for a very bountiful next few weeks as an early Christmas present :-)

and a 1m purchase at 54.94p at 16:18.

Lots of chunky buys this afternoon. Algos or human investors?

At 15:12. Is this the start of chunky trades in an upward trajectory? It's more than £100k, who is the buyer? And who is the mystery buyer in the chunky after hours UT trades in the last 2 weeks? Today is a blue day on the markets and in retail, after the positive news from the US, so not to get carried away. But closing blue would be very welcome after the month of August.

From the Guardian just now: There were “notable job gains” in America’s professional and business services, health care, and retail trade last month, says the Bureau for Labour Statistics.

THG has a lot of retail activity in the US.

This has been painful to watch the last two weeks (or years depending on your entry). The one reassuring aspect to the fall that it's entirely in line with market trends. The daily share price pattern is very close to others in the retail sector. Compare it to ASOS and BOO over the last few months. I appreciate that underlying fundamentals may be better than other retailers but for now were weathering a sector wide storm that's magnifying other indicators. The daily drops after 15 August is consistent with the drop of the £ against the $ in the same period.

If comfort can be found from this, it's that THG isn't moving in the opposite direction to an upward sector. Right now everyones in the same boat: the US market is a seen as a safer bet. If/when the the strength of the £ improves then we'll see exaggerated upward moves. Hopefully after that the THG forecasts sets it apart from others in the sector for a further uplift.

"what chance of the CEO taking this private?"

How could he? He "only" owns about 20% of the shares in issue. Would he not need a >50% majority, or even 75% of shareholder votes, on a resolution to take this private? Literally every shareholder would be selling their shares at a loss to him at this price, so would why they vote for that?

"combined with a total break down of trust between him and the City"

Which is why Charles Allen was brought in as non-exec chairman - to improve board room governance, transparency and trust with the city.

It's been 6 months now, more than enough time to rearrange the furniture. Some of the responsibility to recover THG's market cap must now be shared with 86p per share shareholder, Lord Charles.

And like that, we're back at 60p.

The way to maximise your chances of profiting from the THG share price is to step away from your computer, and come back in 2023. Stop losses -5%/-10% from current THG share trading will get wiped out, until THG establishes a foundation of institutional investors with long term holding plans.

When inflation is on a downward trajectory Q2 2023, money will flood back into growth stock. Here and across the pond.

"his morning was merely a combination of Jupiter clearing out and people getting stopped out."

I think this is likely the reason.

If JUP sell their entire stock, are they obliged by the market to release a TR-1 stating their new holding at 0%? Or would such a 0% TR-1 be out of courtesy only?

It's happened for the 2nd day running. The after hours UT trade was at a higher price than the closing price:

25-Aug-22 16:35:12 61.52 263,995 Buy* 162.41k UT

It's also a smaller amount than recent UT trades of 500-600k.

Maybe this is the start of an upward pattern as short sellers (Citadel today) are buying smaller chunks from sellers (Jup still?) in less volatile moves.

Yesterday broke a daily trading pattern that had occurred every day for the last 2 weeks. The pattern before yesterday was chunky sells occurring in the afternoon, and a steep drop towards close followed by a UT trade after 4:30pm at about the lowest price of the day.

Yesterday however, there was no chunky sells in the afternoon, and the UT after 4:30pm was at the highest price of the afternoon.

We'll see this afternoon if yesterday marks a change to an upward pattern in daily trading patterns.

Every day for the last week or so has ended with a significant UT. An educated guess is that this Jupiter selling the last of their holding to BlackRock who'd be buying to close their short. This is based on Jupiter selling significantly, breaching the <5% recently, and BlackRock reducing from 1.20% on 29 July to 0.39% last Friday.

During trading hours the smaller 5-20k buys have created gradual share price rises, whilst the hefty 50-250k sells have created sharp drops.

Today's UT is smaller than previous days. Will these daily chunky buys/sell fade away before the 15 September update?

The City Spy:

A contact confirms JUP selling #THG heavily. "As much as the market will take".

https://twitter.com/TheCitySpy/status/1560314305672781824?t=wHG07MUfCCDxHf1Mp7ZTNw&s=19

Another after hours £678k trade, presumably a buy at 64.87p:

18-Aug-22 17:02:29 64.87 1,045,943 Unknown* 678.50k O

This late trade counters the other £649k trade.

A lot of shares have been exchanged between buyers and sellers today. I wonder if we'll get TR-1's tomorrow revealing today's volatile activity.

Another big trade registered after hours:

18-Aug-22 16:35:20 63.86 1,017,407 Sell* 649.72k

There was at least one other £500k sell today.

If this is a single seller (Jupiter?), and this £649k sell marks the end of it, then we can expect a rebound once the hefty sells dry up.

There have been some very chunky sells in the last 30 minutes.

It's very possible that this is Jupiter selling the rest of their holding since the TR-1 on 8th August when they drop below 5% holding. If that's the case, then once the chunky selling stops I'd expect a bounce back to 70p to repeat the 7 working day pattern from 9th to 17th August.