Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Tinker,
isn't it a poor show though, when a company the size of BP can issue it's results with incorrect data. I know these are massive and complex documents, but a lot of time and money goes in to preparing them, with so called expert accountants / auditors being engaged. They should be able to get it right.
Anyway, I'm happy with BP at the moment and am happy to continue holding. May take a few off the table if it goes above £5.
Unfortunately I think they would accept it.
Seems ridiculous saying "unfortunately" when I average just over 17p, but with the potential here, £2 could be very cheap indeed.
Lots of "ifs" of course, and still a long way to go, but the signs are very positive.
GLA
Tinker,
I agree that the Beeb article is a bit misleading, possibly deliberately so, and to people who don't actually follow the share, could cause outrage.
I just don't think it can be called a lie, when the fact is the Q3 2022 dividend is 10% higher than the Q2 2021 dividend(in Dollar terms). It could be deliberately provocative, I don't disagree with that.
However, it could simply be lazy. The actual results download from the BP website looks incorrect to me. Note 8. Dividends, on page 27 suggests the Q2 2022 dividend was 5.46c (4.356p) and that the Q3 2022 figure is 6.006c (5.168p), thus it looks like a 10% increase on last quarter. This is simply an error in the published numbers for me. The Q1 2022 figures were 5.46c (4.356p) and the Q2 2022 were 6.006c (5.168p). They've obviously got this wrong because the report shouldn't be showing a Q3 Sterling figure of 5.168p as we won't know the Sterling figure until 6th December.
Sorry for the rambling and the figures, but I just think it a bit poor that the official website can present the numbers wrong, possibly leading to incorrect interpretation.
Bottom line, I agree the BBC report is written in a way to increase calls for a WFT, but don't feel they can be accused of lying.
All the best
But it isn't a lie, the dividend is 10% more than Q3 last year.
Any set of results tends to refer to it's declared interim with reference to the previous year's interim, not to the last declared (final) dividend. I don't think anyone is claiming the dividend is a 10% increase on the last declared one (Q2), just on the equivalent quarter last year.
I suppose it's how you interpret it.
Thank you
Talking of privileged few, I can't see any evidence of this RNS that's being mentioned today.
Shouldn't do, because it now has £10m more in the bank which is representative of those new shares.
The important word there is "shouldn't"
GLA
If only...
I personally love the buy backs as I think they pave the way for long term divi increases and capital growth. I just wish they'd also suspend the scrip (drip) option, thus making the effect of these buybacks even more pronounced.
I know they've said divis will grow by 4% year on year, but if they manage to take another 5% of the shares out of circulation in the next 12 months then there is no reason why the divi won't be raised by 9-10% again. The divi should naturally rise by 5% due to the reduced number of shares and would only cost the same to BP, then add on an actual 4% rise in the total divi pot.
If buybacks continue at this pace I expect divi announcement this time next year of 6.6c ish.
IF they increase it,
which they most likely will.
Same percentage of a smaller whole.
£1.0169 was always the figure quoted in the Aviva circular.
Your 2500 shares MAY be getting 31p dividend next year.
You will be a bit better off because if you bought your 600 shares at £3.90 they will have cost about £2,352 ( £2,340 plus stamp duty and approx £10 dealing charge). When the B share money lands in your account it will be £2,542 (2500 x £1.0169).
You've gained approx £190 and played it very well.
GLA
May just be due to the fact there is less liquidity in the market for pref shares than there is for ordinary shares.
I have occasionally had the same thing with AIM listed shares. No problem buying them, but when it comes to selling them, on rare occasions I have received a message that a sale is not possible at the given time and that it needs to be a negotiated sale. Only happened once or twice, and I have put it down to the fact some of these AIM shares are incredibly illiquid and can go days without a single trade.
GLA
Not quite so neat as it appears though is it?
They may save £3.75bn (roughly) on the cost of acquisition, but then what they are buying will have £3.75bn less cash in the bank.
It's like being offered the chance to buy a house and an accompanying acre of land worth £250k today for £1m, or wait until next week when you can buy it for only £750k, but the acre of land has been removed from the deed and now belongs to someone else.
GLA
Paul,
my previous post took me so long to write that I have missed the fact the disagreement seems to have been resolved!
GLA
Paul,
in all honesty, there is no XD date as there is no dividend. But that's just semantics.
But what you are suggesting defies all logic. According to you, if I currently held 10,000 Aviva shares and sold them right now I would receive £40,000 (at current £4 per share). PLUS, I would receive £10,000 next Thursday (rounded B Share money to £1 for ease of figures), 19th May (or a couple of days after). So my position next week would be that I own no shares but have £50,169 in cash.
Now supposing "John" bought my 10,000 shares today, he would have paid out £40,000 and will hold 10,000 Aviva shares. Now next Monday (16th) John will wake up to find he has only 7,600 Aviva shares, which at a share price of £4 will mean his holding is worth £30,400 (for the purpose of the example, I am assuming no normal market fluctuations but a steady share price over the next few days. I have also assumed the consolidation has done it's job and ensured that the share price opens on Monday morning at the same price it closed on Friday afternoon). Now, unfortunately for John, he will not be getting the £10,000 B Share cash as that will be returned to me.
This clearly leaves me approximately £10k up and John £10k down on the deal, and all has taken place over the weekend. If this were the case everyone, including fund managers should be selling all their Aviva shares today, and no-one in their right mind should be buying.
However, the situation depicted in the example will NOT happen, because if I were to sell 10,000 shares to John today, it would be John that gets the £10,000 B Share money, as it is designed to return HIS capital that has "lost" through share consolidation.
I will not be getting £10,000 because my shares were never consolidated, I sold them all at the market value, thus we are both in our respective correct positions, John having in fact benefitted a little because the capital return figure was set when the share price was approximately £4.26.
GLA
Absolutely correct.
If today was exdiv day for the B Share scheme the shares would now be trading at around £2.98.
It is ridiculous to believe that you can sell your shares today and receive £4, plus the £1.01 in the future, effectively valuing them at £5 currently.
Similarly, it is unreasonable to believe that someone paying £4 today would be happy to see 24% of that value wiped out next week when they see their shareholding reduced by 24%.
The WHOLE point of the share consolidation is that it is the person who holds the shares after the event (ie the one buying them today) receiving the B Share money (£1.0169 per share) in order to compensate them for the reduction in value of their shareholding next week by 24%.
The one selling them today will not get the £1.0169 B Share money because they are in effect selling that entitlement when they sell today at £4. The £1.0169 is built in to the £4 they sell for today. The £4 share price today is in effect £2.99 for the value of the share plus £1.01 in future income.
GLA
Hitman,
the 31p future dividend is not confirmed at all. The literature makes this clear on several occasions.
It is fairly likely, and anything less will look like an own goal, but let's be clear, the 31p for 2022 and 32.5p for 2023 are only targets at the moment.
Staycool,
they are returning £3.75bn not £1.6bn and you are getting your share.
It is a return of capital, not a gift. They are returning to shareholders something that we already own.
The current share price is £4.32. Part of that (£1.0169) is represented by the £3.75bn cash that is currently sat idly in Aviva's bank. As a shareholder you already own that £1.0169 that Aviva are currently holding for you. The rest of the share price (£3.3031) is made up of other assets Aviva own as valued by the markets.
Aviva are simply returning the £1.0169 that is already yours back to you. It will now sit in your bank instead of Aviva's. As it no longer sits in Aviva's bank, it will no longer make up part of the share price, hence the 76:100 consolidation to restore the share price to £4.32 instead of it falling to £3.30.
We are not being given anything that is not already ours, but neither are we losing.
Short term this will make no difference, but if Aviva's confidence in being able to generate and grow future profits is proved correct, it will reward shareholders in the long run.
GLA