Member Info for Theorist

Keep buying and you'll hate the world too!

OMG. Two years and we finally agree on something. One for the framers!

Don’t rate Meeka. Tim Davidson lightweight. Enjoying his $300,000 salary. There are dozens of these companies, pegs out a block of dirt, minimal drilling, declares a possible resource of a zillion ounces, floats, sponsors buy a yacht, company lurches along for 5 years, money runs out, company disappears, directors move onto next project. Wouldn’t give Tim Davidson 5 bucks.

I think what Tony was trying to say is that when volumes are low spreads are higher! 10 seconds!

Yes all encouraging. Would be much happier if I saw details about promised reduction in headcount, hopefully as R & D tails off this will be delivered. Simply has to get to profitability without a further raise, this has to be the holy grail.

Mumbles we’ll definitely do that. Obviously Chinese my preference but happy to settle for Boisdales!

Tony,

Yes in part it is that. I wonder if the capex is really being driven down or whether the inability to get finance is behind this. But it’s the bigger picture, why when trying to make a serious announcement do they lob in rubbish like the 11 fold increase in ndpr consumption, cribbed from another WA wannabe producer whose share price has halved since ipo. I cannot get away from the feeling that the whole show is so amateurish, that these guys simply don’t have the nous and credibility to pull this off. For me the very first red flag was the fact they were all happy with bios on the Pre website that were at best misleading. You’ve got to be something of a halfwit to do that. At every turn they have gilded the lily and misled shareholders. So when they finally announce they are on the cusp of yet another financing everyone yawns and the sp barely flickers. All the problems start at the top. Atherley does not tell the truth. Look at his new TVL website. What does it say? The largest sustainable refiner in Europe blah blah blah. It’s false. They have nothing. Alkemy announces a £1.25m raise. Claims success. Turns out they had £350,000 of loans from Atherley and Quinn, enough to pay their salaries, although I concede that subsequently they announced they would capitalise the debt at £1.40 or whatever. It’s all fast and loose. Very loose. And no, I’m not Chinese, Israeli or Russian and no I couldn’t give a fig about Atherley, I’m just an analyst walking the grid.

Mumbles. I have a lot of respect for Tony and yourself. You are clearly highly knowledgeable and experienced. My one observation is that you accept and study the information the company disseminates. This is not an ordinary company. A great deal of the information it publishes is, for want of a better description, misleading. Is the finance a done deal subject to some due diligence process? I very much doubt it. I do not believe that the company is even close to pulling off a financing. Another few months and finally the Angolans are going to realise they have been led a merry dance. Shareholders can be fobbed off for a little longer. This is going to end in tears. I have not even the faintest shadow of doubt about that. I recommend a forensic examination of the Longonjo financing RNS. Do you really really believe that $200m will see Pensana home?

I was reading again the RNS of 27 June. With everything Pensana you have to go through the process of separating fact from fiction. In the “About Angola” section the Angolan currency is referred to as stable. That’s fiction. The Lwei has plummeted since April, losing almost half its value. It may not be a big deal but again we see a company wholly incapable of delivering facts. There are many incredible embellishments packed into one RNS. What is the real truth about the status of a potential financing for Longonjo? What is certain is that nobody on this BB has an earthly clue. Shameful state of affairs.

Fulmar29. Watched the report you recommended, really shocking, Erin Brokovich 2. You just have to believe that over the next 10 years their customers, if not the producers, will be held to account.

Wasarunner, HZM includes some npv calculations on its website under the "projects" tab. These are a little bit dated but what is interesting is the enormous increase in the npv when the nickel price goes north of $16,800 and of course these figures are for Araguaia 1. As you know this year the nickel price has come off from $30,000 to $21,000 however it seems to be finding a floor at this level. Costs will have increased from when the model was prepared but these will be partially offset by the devaluation of the Real over this timeframe. As a guesstimate I would think the current npv (using the 8% discount rate applied in the model) is around $1.25bn or almost twice the current market cap. Any further weakening of the nickel price is obviously going to be detrimental but then again these npv calculations put no value on the Stage 2 expansion case or Vermelho. Furthermore the nickel grade and ESG benefits are not factored into these calcs. In my opinion a highly realistic scenario would be a steady progression in the sp as the outstanding commissioning risks are ticked off over the next six months, we should be adding around 10p/month. Of course all depends on the nickel price and the absence of any expensive hiccups but the outlook does look extremely healthy. Certainly my assessment is very close to yours though maybe a tad more cautious!

Calculating. If you hadn't ignored the sad downrampers you wouldn't have bought in at 50p! And it's not PA's cash he's putting in it's yours! All he has put in is what you paid him for his last few weeks efforts! But if you're patient you will have another opportunity to buy in at a snip, of that I am sure.

You’re right, never heard of any of them. Except Pini. He’s another Atherley. Check out Cove Capital’s website. 540% return for investors? 500m. If you two grew up and did some homework you wouldn’t be in the sorry position you are now, seeking to defend the indefensible, whilst watching Pre vaporise. It’s pathetic that the sp is 15p and you saddos think it’s there because of fud, Chinese agents, shorters blah blah blah. Your naked lack of intelligence is staggering.

Sundrum you’re the detective, go find it! And when you’ve found it print it, frame it do what you like with it!

Sundrum. I've got to say you do provide some entertainment. You are such a brilliant sleuth. I don't have even the foggiest idea what you're talking about. The post is still there. The line about having my green fees paid was there for your cohort, reptile, who thinks I am bankrupt. I haven't a clue who USA Rare Earths are or Amvest for that matter. But don't let that stop you following your nose, this must be so exciting for you. Btw what do you think of Alkemy, have you piled in there too?

Is it a coincidence that Hohnen and Machlaclan held just under 7m shares between them?

Tony, I recognise you to be a thoroughly decent and sensible chap but there is one massive flaw in your analysis. Being so decent you believe everything the company says about the status of its bid to secure finance. Unfortunately the reality is that it is impossible to distinguish fact from fiction with Atherley. This is his undoing. Look at the website for Tees Valley Lithium, his new wheeze. Scrawled across the front page it declares “Europe’s largest sustainable lithium hydroxide refiner” or something like that. TVL has nothing. It has £1. Look very carefully at the latest RNS from Alkemy. It declares a successful £1.25m capital raise. But when you look closer it’s nothing of the sort. You fall into the same trap as everyone else. You think that because Pensana is a company listed on the LSE it will automatically subscribe to a set of values. It doesn’t. It never has. From the moment I read Atherley’s cv on the Pensana website I called this one out. Massive red flashing lights. I think Hohnen and Maclachlan fled in horror. So I am sorry Tony, your analysis is great but the information you are analysing is not.

Calculating. Averaging down will not reduce your loss, it will increase it.

Pwlx. Another 900 shares would fit nicely with your Eurasia holding! Or do you think Eurasia's a winner too?!

Posters on this bb will already have seen a very clear trend developing. The sp peaked on some quite extraordinary hype and is now descending fairly rapidly. This trend will continue. It should be fairly obvious that it is very difficult for a £1 company to raise $200m, particularly where the management team have no track record of developing a successful resource business. Furthermore it is imperative to do some basic research. Go on YouTube, listen to the Atherley interviews with Pensana, Murchison, Berkeley Energia, Leyshon and then look at the outcomes. Read the latest RNS about the £1.25m capital raise. See how much actual cash was raised. Ask if the loan from Atherley and Quinn has actually been made rather than just promised. Alkemy/TVL is a pipe dream. I think the institutions will look at the outcome of the recent placements by Pensana and run a mile. Over the next six months you will no doubt be showered by promises of incredible riches. Timetables will be set and broken. Communications will become erratic. Cash will run out. The party will end. This will be the profile.