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You can certainly get 5 or 6% from gilts but you would still be losing money in real terms. Every portfolio should have a spread of risk. A lot of posters are having fun with spare cash and are happy with a few higher risk speculative plays. HZM is pretty straightforward. It’s a much higher risk than gilts but imo has every prospect of being a £2.00-£2.50 stock in Q1 next year. It is a really unusual company. It is extremely rare for a company that started with almost nothing to put together such a colossal and complex financing and develop what should be a world class resource. Nickel price is the big unknown. And that is why the sp is where it is.

Mumbles. Let's pretend that Paul knows that finance is imminent and let us assume that the market does not know that. Paul goes and buys £120,000 of shares. Finance is announced within, say, a month of his purchase. So when he made his purchase the finance would have been, in this hypothetical scenario, very close to finalisation. The way I interpret the purchase is that finance is nowhere near a done deal, because if it was perhaps he would be in just a little hot water? Of course I could be wrong!

Major Oak. I don’t know what you smoke, swallow or eat but for sure it’s not good for you. Recommend you take a break and seek some help, you’re not doing anyone any favours writing this constant stream of …

Mumbles I have to applaud your unstinting loyalty to the cause. Paul not attending , a deliberate move to underscore collective strength. Pass me the bucket. To me I am afraid it is stunning naivety. And of course Paul’s share purchase confirms that there is no finance in the offing, no doubt you figured that one out?

Lessee. So you lost your shirt on Berkeley Energia but became a disciple of Paul’s, bought into Pensana and lost another shirt. I think you should go for a flush and buy Alkemy too. If you don’t understand why Pensana went for 200p to 20p I’m sorry, I can’t help you.

Polestar are lucky to have Pensana as a key partner. You have to admire Atherley, his zest for pedalling poop is remarkable.

China. LCM is not a magnet manufacturer. It produces material that may be used for magnet manufacture. It is really a refiner not a manufacturer. I guess you are trying to demonstrate the art of up-ramping! Would probably have helped to have got your first “fact” correct.

Lessee I think you need to read it more carefully. The vendors have been re-engaged and remain committed. So they had been stood down? And they remain committed. Well if they get paid up-front why wouldn’t they be happy to supply? And Lycop signed off the $200m as being adequate? That was quick! None of this looks credible to me.

Lycopodium certainly looks to have all the right credentials but it is extraordinary that after all this time the company appears to have ditched Wood group and the existing FEED and gone right back to square one. This certainly vindicates what SP/DP has been saying so stridently for over 2 years. Lycop is not the sort of company that is going to takeover Woods work and tinker around with the numbers/design etc etc. They will want to build a plan from the ground up and that will not be done in 3 or 6 months. I don’t agree with Hogsnipe’s speculation that this change is ABSA driven. I think rather that finally finally the company has realised that a radical change of direction is needed if this project is ever to be financed. And I wouldn’t be surprised if Lycop come back and say $300m is the number. And Saltend is finished. I have said before that Saltend was never a real project anyhow, it existed as a concept solely to see if money could be extracted from the UK government. So what happens now? My guess is a long wait to see what Lycop come up with as a number and then back to the drawing board with finance. Another year of Director earnings, sp to 15p, again. All a total guess of course.

I can tell you for free there will be no feedstock this year. Or next. Alkemy exists only to line PA's pockets, a fact that too many fail to understand. Just like Pensana, before that Berkeley Energia, before that Murchison and before that Leyshon. Youtube PA's interviews with all four. Fantastical promises of colossal riches, the same script, just the name changes. And the outcome? Pi's get wiped. It will happen here, PA will keep dangling the bait, trouser his fees and option profits, he can probably keep this going for another two or three years. The feedstock will not arrive but of course there will be an explanation or an excuse, they'll probably announce that they've actually found a better deal but put things back to the spring.

The BB’s are littered with people who claim to trade the beta successfully consistently (eg Contrarian) but the reality is that this is not a winning strategy. Nobody but nobody makes money in the long term though many are tempted. Backinblak has probably just realised this, my guess he made some nice little 5% trades then whack, the profits are gone. You can Google and read literally dozens of technical papers that will explain why you won’t make money trading the beta. In reality it is betting on a coin toss.

Contrarian. If I had been dumb enough to pour my life savings into ITV I wouldn’t swan around the BB’s telling everyone how I can make 10, 20 or 30% on pretty much any company I choose.

Good post Sheerclass. I agree that in isolation the Oldham numbers are not that exciting but I think what we are seeing is an increase in noise from Creo as take up widens. We know that the addressable market is huge, we know their is no competing device, we know that the take-up process is necessarily slow but most importantly we can now see the first signs of a proper momentum. Other hospitals and other surgeons across the UK (and I guess abroad) will be taking note. Cash burn does of course remain a concern and I have no doubt at all that in the past this has been excessive. Back in February the company promised a significant reduction in headcount this year and this is what I would like to see. How they managed to get to 375 headcount with such derisory sales does seem astounding but they set a 100 headcount reduction as their short-term objective. Hopefully they can achieve this through natural attrition because the last thing we need is a raft of redundancy costs. Please do share the Molten Ventures take on cash burn.

Glencore sp was 430p when Russia invaded Ukraine.

Thank you Rover62. If the conversion price is 8.5p and there has been a share consolidation 20:1 then the conversion price is 170p? In which case dilution isn't a factor until and unless the sp is north of 170p? Just trying to reconcile this with wasarunner's earlier post. Looking at the issue terms of the notes it is only the par value of the notes that would be converted, not the capitalised interest, so a maximum issue of only 30m shares at 170p, which wouldn't really be significant in the context of the value of the existing shares. Or maybe I am wrong again?!

Not sure I fully understand the convertibles. Let’s assume all the notes convert because the conversion price is only 8.5p. There’s $65m of notes or around £51.2m. So wouldn’t the notes convert to around 600m shares? There’s obviously something wrong with my maths but I can’t see what. It would also be a useful exercise to calculate the net receipts to HZM, net of the Orion royalty and the Glencore commission. I am just a bit concerned that with the ferronickel discount and these two costs the real price to be received by HZM is going to be sub $20,000.

It is quite scary when you drill down into the financing. A company like HZM has such a weak bargaining position, it’s not like there was a queue of institutions lining up for this. It’s reflected in every aspect of the financing. And in Glencor’s offtake agreement. The first five years will be painful in terms of finance costs, royalties, commissions etc etc, it’s probably what tempers the sp, but clean production must eventually attract a real premium. With the world seemingly on fire surely but surely esg has to come to the fore?

MM can scream at the market but he still has to bear a lot of responsibility for the whole debacle. He insisted on the golden share, he took the crazy £800m bonus and he knew the shares were ramped just to trigger it, he took the freeholds out of the business, he endorsed earnings forecasts that proved very wide of the mark. Now he has reinvented himself as some Robin Hood. I’d love to believe this leopard has changed its spots but to be frank I am circumspect. I reckon MM will lead a privatisation offer but I doubt it will be overly generous.

Thank you all, very complicated but much appreciated!

Have been looking at a number of forecasts and found this to be one of the most comprehensive https://www.industry.gov.au/sites/default/files/2023-07/resources-and-energy-quarterly-june-2023.pdf . There is some really interesting material here. It is clear that nickel sulphate is going to continue to trade at a sharp discount to ferro nickel, I know HZM intends to produce ferro nickel as well as sulphate, does anyone know what the actual forecast production from A1 is? Are we looking at sulphate only? Assuming the transition to production runs smoothly over the next 6 months it would seem that the nickel price is going to become the main driver of the sp (unless progress with A2 and Vermelho really kicks off). I wish I understood more about how A1 production will differ from Indonesian sulphate because the latter does seem to be the main threat. There are posters here who are very knowledgeable about this stuff, would be very interested to hear from them!