Member Info for Thelix

If only certain people kept repeating that severe dilution would continue to occurr.

Oh wait...

I resemble a cancer?

Nice. I thought personal insults meant

1. You lost the argument and
2. Against LSE's rules - maybe I should report you?

Again, grow up.

Just because I call the SP correctly and call a dog of a share a dog of a share you constantly prattle on claiming I am libellious and cancer.

In full context about beef stew the post was clearly a joke. I know jokes are nearly illegal these days - but not quite yet.

Everytime this goes down against your will you claim a "distressed seller" - and many LTHs have done so since 2013.

Considering libel has to be a fraudulent claim against a particular person or institution, it is baseless.

Considering my comment is a sarcastic way of pointing out no such distressed seller exists - but is just the market reacting to the public RNS shows how little you know of how libel works.

No distressed seller exists - it was just yet another "if we get x, we can do y" RNS - can kicking.

The SP is down because the market and multiple sellers made it so. Not some elusive bogeyman "distressed seller".

Grow up.

Yeah I'm not clued up - the one who has been accurately calling SP movements here since 2014, correctly calling dilution levels since 2014 and correctly calling the jam tomorrow nature of the share since 2014.

Yeah I'm the one not clued up.

The market seems to agree with me (again).

But no, it's all a conspiracy as to why the SP is about to hit one of its lowest prices see for quite a while.

Everything is going smoothly and jigsaw is nearly complete. The tank in SP is not related at all.

Everything is just great at SAV. Everything is going smoothly.

Repeat the mantra and it will come true.
Repeat the mantra and it will come true.
Repeat the mantra and it will come true.

Hardest lesson of trading and investing - admitting when one of your trades/investments was wrong and learning from it, rather than using mental acrobatics to justify why you were right and it was the pesky market mistreating it as to why it didn't work.

I realised in 2014/15 when my investment in SAV was a wrong move, I lost a little but the money I withdrew went on to make a lot more. People holding here since 2013/4 have seen nothing but a paperloss for the majority of their time.

It's such good news that the SP dived 7% 24 hours prior to the RNS, and lowered a further 1 or so on the announcement.

SAV's timeline.

- We have a world class mineral sands tenement next door to Rio Tinto.
- We have a mid tier copper resource with additional gold in an up and coming mining market.
- We have Lithium now too!
- Copper dies
- Mineral sands paused

- We have some leftovers for pottery

"Wow, fantastic piece of the jigsaw solved!".

HAHAHAHAHA.

People have apparently invested tens of thousands here and consider some ceramics an excellent upturn.

Man I needed that laugh today - had a rough day.

Is severely corrupt.

The issue is does Dave want a project in a country that has thrown delays and hurdles just "because" and due to high level corruption and ****ing matches.

It is best to get the licensing and sell it - it will be a financial liability if SAV ever mines there personally as the Omani officials will continue to make stuff up just to spite miners.

They certainly seem to have favourites (Alara). Money probably exchanged hands somewhere.

It is also why Portugal is taken more seriously and safely - a non corrupt country.

How much are the new licensing fees? Is it similar to shops? If the price isn't stated you probably can't afford it? Lol.

On a serious note - very unexpected news. Once the cost of those licenses is revealed and if it is manageable the SP should see a spike.

Li has the highest theoretical energy density...Larger atoms are...larger...They take up more room and hold charges with less stability as larger atoms more freely let go of their electrons.

Lithium is, and will for a long time, be king of batteries. The issue is physics - transporting 2 tons of metal and 70-200kg of sinew for hundreds of miles takes a LOT of energy.

The issues are, despite Li's huge theoretical capacity - our current tech cannot take full advantage of it yet. Charge times are still half a day - these "fast charge" batteries car manufacturers boast forget to mention you can only do it ONCE every 5 to 10 charges - you cannot fast charge every charge. Thirdly, no charging infrastructure exists - and that is because already, companies are exclusivising their techs and different models require different charge voltages and pin sizes. Not to mention the tech changes every 3-5 years so after whoever spends billions installing all of it throughout the UK - it will be redundant by 2023.

These cars cost an average of 50k+ and the batteries don't last long and hold less charge each time. I know someone with a Nissan leaf that's only 6 years old and cannot do over 40 miles every full charge now with a claimed 75 mile range.

It is still enthusiast tech - nobody on a standard 9-5 salary is buying a 60k electric vehicle that cannot do their weekly commute mileage without being sat charging for half a day, and if they do - wow they are an idiot.

They nees to improve density and charge times before mainstream people with average 300 mile weekly commutes buy them for sensible prices.

You say I am talking fantasy but here you are claiming 50 mtn, when all RNSs quote 40mtn as a target, and your opinion is lithium will increase in price within 2-3 years.

Both Jam tomorrow statements with no shred of evidence.

Moz is a write off - they should have had documents ages agom it is a SH country with no reliable legal capabilities. Corruption is rife. Same as Oman. Write off.

Portugal is the only viable asset at SAV.

"Stick to facts, the IRR is one of the most attractive in the lithium space FACT

CAPEX is comparatively very low

OPEX will be comparatively very low

Nobody is "locked in" FACT

This is and always has been an investment for many LTH's, it's never been a trading ****, plenty of other rubbish on AIM if that floats your boat"

I have stuck to facts - you just don't like hearing certain ones.

The IRR isn't great if you factor in likely dilution. The mine is up to 40 mtn ( not even there yet, but to SAVs credit they do have good resource upgrades every RNS) at whatever % - lets be nice and round up to 400k tonnes of lithium -last RNS was shy of 300k. Spodumene per metric ton is 525

0.9 tons to a tonne so I will just add 52.5 to the 525 for 580 rounded (again in SAV's favour)

580x400k = $232 million, over a decade or more of mining life, not factoring in capex, and thats revenue not profit... Thats approx 5x current mcap and I have been rounding in SAVs favour for 3-4 variables now... That isn't looking like a great IRR to me. Once Dilution knocks on the door too that will be even less.

If SAV do ever mine it - they will dilute so hard the SP will still be sub 15p, probably even sub 10p.

Quite frankly as soon as this spikes again if it does - jump ship (just my opinion - not advice).

Yeah Capex is low I admit that, but then again it doesn't cost much not mining anything so...Bit of a technicality there personally.

Maybe I have made a maths mistake somewhere and I will be happy to admit I got something wrong - maybe its 400 mtn not 40 mtn etc.

However other people have also shot that number about - £ 200 mil to £250 mil once 40 mtn is reached so my $232 mil is looking the same.

Great for a £2m AIM tiddler. But this is worth £45 mil or so so IRR I find quite a funny statement Osaka.

You jest - I'm not the one who's been locked in since 2014.

You can mock all you want but I have called SAV share price, dilution levels, and future success pretty near 100%.

FT subscription is a waste of money - basic level news articles with information that can be achieved elsewhere. It has little exclusive content.

Fiat are also suing them - and a load more have sued them.

You can prattle on about the EV world changing and how tech is advancing. It doesn't change the fact that in order for SAV to literally get the lithium out the ground and process it into battery grade purity and refinement is going to cost approxinately double the current mcap.

Debt, Dilution or Destitution -they are your three options.

Loads of other larger players are in the lithium market and no way is a major manufacturer going to risk dealing with a tiny AIM company.

Imagine VW, Audi et al all saying "sorry about the lack of EVs, we decided to source our lithium for the batteries from a company who didnt have the infrastructure in place to mine it in the first place".

Reminds me of the brexit ferry disaster when they paid a company who had no ships.

Man this place is full of amateurs.

"Australia’s Pilbara Minerals (ASX:PLS) has signed a lithium offtake deal with Chinese car manufacturer Great Wall Motors (HKEX:2333) to further develop its flagship Pilgangoora lithium-tantalum project."

Never heard of them. Googled it -some cheap company undergoing loads of lawsuits for copying real manufacturers cars. So usual cheap knock-offs. Like I said, no major car manufacturer is going to pay an offtake agreement to a company who cannot get lithium out the ground - using the offtake money to get it out the ground. Do you pay for your car so they can buy the metal and make it? No. They make it and you buy it.

"The deal is highly unusual in the world of battery manufacturing. Much of the world’s lithium comes from Argentina, Chile, Bolivia, Australia and eastern China, and is shipped long distances to battery makers in Asia.

But Tesla, a risk-taker and innovator under CEO Elon Musk, is experimenting with new ways to get materials for its batteries and potentially lower its costs. "

1. Not an offtake agreement.
2. Admits the strategy is unusual and not widely done by large car manufacturers - as I have been saying for ages.

I don't have a subscription to FT but if we extrapolate from your first two sources I doubt the third will be any better.

No major car manufacturer in Europe is going to pay Savannah an up front set of cash for lithium they cannot extract or process. The high risk of upfronting the money for a raw material that will take a good year or two to receive (need to build processing plants) is just huge. Its hilarious people here think VW et al are happy to spank tens of millions to Savannah to wait for their lithiun when the asian market has loads.

Just...lol.

Big car manufacturers are not going to agree offtake agreements. They just aren't

This needs severe dilution to dig and process it all for money.

Bigsociety - Correct.

"Everything should become a lot clearer during H2, multiple developments coming our way."

H2 of what year?

Both investors and SAV itself has promised things and drifted by years.

No offence, but deadlines/timelines at SAV are a joke. They have NEVER successfully completed a promise before the deadline. Hell, 95% of the promises have yet to come to fruition.

Moz and Oman are write offs. Clear as day, don't let the corporate spiel of "strategising the progression of the assett" fool you. Generic vague pontificating language like that is a cover.

Portugal is the only saving grace and requires tens of millions of £ to setup to actually get it out the ground and sold.

The idea the EU will fund it is hilarious.
The idea that car manufacturers will fund it is hilarious.
The idea an offtake agreement will mean SAV can use that cash to pay for setting it all up is hilarious.

SAV needs some serious cashola to physically mine and sell this lithium. 50 mil +.

Mega dilution.

This was at 250mil shares at 5p a few years back.

It is now 1bil shares at 5p.

So it is worth 20p "old money" where many wanted to sell.

This is AIM - most explorers are worth 1-7 mil.

This has a value of 50mil with arguably 1 asset that is yet to see funding to get profits from mining.

This is already hugely overvalued by AIM standards.

There are other lithium explorers at similar stages worth orders of magnitude less.

And even after all this, 40-45 m tons of lithium from what others have calculated is only a revenue of 200-250 mil.

So 4-5x current mcap, and not profits, revenue.

And people want to see 4-8 bags from here even with "known dilution people knew it was coming".

You should have sold at 17p - most LTH did. Thats why the price crashed - loads of cheap shares sold at a premium in massive blocks. The MM's therefore dropped the SP to the sellers buying prices.

If this ever spikes above 15p again through some weird AIM "share of the week" surge, personally I would sell quicker than a BMW driver honks their horn when the light goes green.

Hell I was happy to sell at 4p just to get out of the mess SAV is, freed up liquid cash to trade elsewhere, rather than it sitting for 5 years doing nothing or losing with monstrous levels of jam maybe appearing.

You deffo should have sold at 17p - many LTHs did, that's why the price went back down. MMs have to make money too eh?

Find it funny how I was heckled for saying Oman and Moz was a write off and....well look at that lol.

SAVs only hope is portugal.

The issue is NPV and dilution...

NPV of $240 million (£190 million) of a many decade life mine...With an Mcap of £45 mil.

Yeah, the SP wont budge much at all unless the resource gets a lot bigger. That's why Moz and Oman were important as (technically) worth much more than that.

The usual AIM mining issue of "awaiting licensing".

99.9% of AIM miners never get licenses or dig out the resource. Not a SAV problem, just startup mine company problems; however SAV is one of them.

The one and only saving factor for SAV is that it is now officially the largest lithium resource in west Europe, meaning if any deals are made, Savannah should in theory be the VIP of the group of companies with lithium resources.

Just need a willing buyer...

How I said the next batteries would be solid state lithium sulphide.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2019/05/16/the-holy-grail-of-lithium-batteries/amp/

Lithium is still king and will be for ages in battery tech due to its superior charge density.

The issue as the article points out (which I stated a week or so before it was published) is cycling and lithium dendrites.

Almost as if I work in the science sector and know the subject.

I don't post positive or negative. Emotion in trading and investing never mixes well.

I call it as I see it. I sold up in 2015 odd I believe and so far 90% of my warnings back then have come true.

When I point that out people call me insults. And these are apparently learned investors lol.

I didn't post here for a good 1.5 years, maybe even 2, however I remembered the old beast of SAV and decided in 2018 to check how it was doing. Not to my surprise, exactly how I predicted.

Look at things realistically, license issues with Moz and Oman with delays lasting years. Dilution is mega, I left at 200 mil shares ish, its now nearly 900mil. Plenty of diamond scope drills but never finishes the race with a commercial mine.

That's not being negative - that's just summaring the last 6 years of SAV.

Being positive or negative on a BB isn't going to move the price or affect your profits/losses. All it does is enflame nice feeling or bad feeling emotions.

Get a grip.

To be fair also I have posted positively about lithium in general. Some seem to think it wont be around in newer batteries, but it most certainly will.

Cute insults for someone who has locked their cash in a mostly unmoved share for over half a decade now.

Still awaiting licensing for Moz right? Like Oman.

Same sentiment for Oman in 2016/17 when more and more copper and gold kept being drilled.

How's Oman going?

Savannah is brilliant at locating and proving up a resource. Terrible at getting it out the ground.

Let's be realistic, pragmatic and honest - Moz and Oman are write-offs and SAV needs portugal to be mining lithium in a year or two otherwise it will become a sub penny AIM share that failed all hurdles.