Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
When I read the RNS yesterday I was very happy, but also think this may put a spoke in the plans for a quick sell.
If Ascot has higher grades, and is nearer surface, a mining co would always want to get the higher grade resource into production first - as this gives much quicker payback of the Capex.
So any big miner looking to buy this will want to know more about Acsot, in terms of size of resource and grades.
I think we'll see much more holes going into Ascot.
There was no bad news - these holes are not too deep and the appear to be drilling quickly and under budget.
SAS - I had 3 out of 4 of them in - now the full house.
Tom - great news - all the best. Big weight off your mind.
Sorry to hear of your loss Matty. My dad cared for my mum for a long time before we lost her at start of pandemic, we did as much as he would let us - which was not much, but I saw how difficult a job it was, and the level of devotion he showed and care he provided will be the same as what you gave your dad, be proud of that.
IHT - plenty here will be able to give you sound advice, some have already. Best wishes for getting back into work and the readjustment you will have to make in your life without your dad around. Hope you have close family and friends who can help you through this difficult time.
Zoros - NCM entered into a 70% owned partnership with Imperial at Red Chris in August 2019. They seem happy to develop Red Chris with them at 70/30. I accept this is new territory for NCM in Canada - and GGP is very close in Australia and Telfer.
They also have a 50/50 at Wafi-Golpu project - but again local partner in a different country - and been a difficult project for them both.
GGP have some very attractive acreage in Paterson and EG - NCM might just want to keep GGP sweet and onside as a partner - but I accept they could also try and takeover - a strike on one of our 100% assets would help us no end.
I think SD wants to retain the 25% of Hav - why would you not do this unless you got a too good to refuse offer to sell, but I think SD and his team know that Hav is only going to increase in value - there is potentially much more deeper down and in the Hav blocks - and it will be several years before anyone truly knows the size.
Hav will be developed by NCM in phases, and there will probably be multiple phases of underground mining - they are world experts at this - look at Cadia.
Telfer is a high capacity mine - had to be as Telfer processes relatively low grade ore - so there are high volumes of feed ore for the gold and copper output. When Telfer gets the 2/3/6 MT early feed ore from Hav - it is going to be much higher grade with a very nice output.
Once we start bulk mining, the volumes of feed ore will increase and grades will be lower.
I think SD and team if we retain 25% of Hav will use the very nice and growing income stream to go exploring more with the drill bit. And possibly start to develop some of the other projects with partners.
We have blocks around and in the same region as other discoveries - but around Hav is still relatively virgin area. Deep exploring is slow and expensive compared to shallow stuff. We just have to hope we get a hit on a 100% owned tenement - anything in Juri will also be a bonus - and there are already early indications of some Telfer like mineralisation.
Long term - this company has loads of potential IMHO, but as always with mining exploration, it's hard, and you need a bit of luck as well. But demand for copper and battery minerals will be ever increasing in future. Personally I don't think mineral prices are going to explode to many multiples of where they are now - once they become too expensive the general public cannot buy the products that they are needed for. Again in my opinion, electric car prices need to drop before the take up will be huge. I live in a rural area - public transport is not an option - take up of electric here has been slow compared to other areas like big cities.
Damondubya, I agree first priority is insulating older properties. Very difficult to do, and as Mr V says disruption in every room and I think 10k costs optimistic.
For Electric heating I was talking about modern new electric radiators, not storage heaters, and this would be in conjunction with solar panels and domestic battery storage charged at cheaper overnight rates.
Many poorly insulated homes have been heated for years with electric storage heaters.
I am not considering a heat pump type system, when you look at boiler, heat pump and water circulated radiators, maintenance and upkeep more expensive than electric rads, which are more reliable.
Uk energy security, we need nuclear. France has cheapest power generation in Western Europe. Our politicians letting us down ignoring nuclear. Wind is great, but we do get some periods of no wind in uk.
80/20 gas, hyd mix is interesting, but will be costly and if only short term, not sure it’s viable.
My view is that Hydrogen will play a part in the green revolution - but only a small part.
https://citu.co.uk/citu-live/could-hydrogen-replace-natural-gas-to-heat-homes-in-the-uk
This article shows that moving to a 100% hydrogen grid will not be economically feasible IMHO. Houses will have to be made more energy efficient and we will use electric heating - which will be much cheaper to install than new hydrogen boilers and infrastructure - hydrogen will be expensive to produce.
Insulating the older houses will be hugely challenging and costly. Nobody has a real coherent plan to get to Net Zero.
Wishing all on here a merry christmas and happy new year. Hope people not inconvenienced or worse by covid 19.
2021 been a tough year for GGP LTH - for me it was a year where I topped up continually - all the way from 33p down to 15p - missed the chances below here as no readily available funds.
At all times I was happy in the fundamentals of Hav alone and confident I would make money on all my shares in the long term - but was tough - until that RNS last week.
Thanks to the regular major contributors to this board, paddy, bamps and hydrogen - I will be forever grateful for the info they (and many other knowledgeable posters) have shared with us - and continue to share with us.
Exploration for minerals - especially deep exploration is not easy - patience required - it's a long game - even if we only find a baby Hav it will still be great.
Looking forward to a prosperous GGP New Year. GLA
I have had many of these dinners you talk about - but no longer - moved to the office - Christmas dinners at home now. Bit larger scale than gold exploration drilling and costs an awful lot more.
Costa - I think that's a very good question - but I do not have an answer. The JV was minimum spend of $65m US + I think first $20m of PFS costs - would need to go back and look at the detail.
So I guess the easiest way to estimate would be with drilling costs - then there are some capital costs for the camp and small roadways - not any decline works, and the costs of upgrade works at Telfer would be not included.
Figure would be interesting to see how much they have spent to get 70% ownership. However FMV has to take into account the value of the gold in the ground, which is quite complex.
Lots of things would come into the calc, including required CAPEX to get the minerals to Telfer, although we have a small proven resource, we have quite small CAPEX to get this out. Once the Bulk Underground mining starts - there will be more CAPEX, but regardless - because Telfer is already there, and we will be paying a toll feed for processing our 25%, CAPEX and AISC will be low - so FMV should be reasonable.
I would also like to have some part of deal to protect for future growth of the resource size - but I think this will be determined by the legal text in the JV agreement - and none of us knows what this say.
It could (and this is only speculation) have a clause saying that FMV will be calculated based on resource size at time of the purchase.
Who knows. Only time will tell. Hope GGP had good people when reviewing or writing that part of the JV agreement.
Tom, Cj - can only echo what others have said - best wishes for the tests and hope you have a good outcome. Same for anyone else with health worries - haelth is always more important than wealth
readthecandles - on Oct 7th the SP was 21.7p - on high volume - then on steady decline, but so have many other junior explorers and small producers in the PM sector. That's a big drop and I just cannot fathom it out.
The other thing I cannot fathom out - the % of PI's holding seems to be sticking around 80% - although I am totally reliant on people like Hydro providing this info - some people have access to Bloomberg Terminal.
I do think a lot of PI's on Aim invest for a quick gain - if it does not arrive cut their losses and go elsewhere.
The world is potentially a bad place again, with Omicron (I hope it's not so bad as feared) - and there will be many wondering if world economies can take another shock. I don't think in our country people will accept full lockdown again unless deaths rise hugely and NHS comes under severe pressure. Who knows - one day things will turn. Pandemics normally turn endemic - I wish this one would hurry up and do this.
In my opinion, the real value will come when we have become a producer and have years of production in the ground at Haverion.
If we sold our 30 or 25%, we would be selling without knowing the full size of hav, will take years to drill this. Then we would site with money in bank, and even if we hit big - will take a long time if we have to build a mine.
I think if we get lucky at Scally - will most probably be a JV - but at much better terms - using Telfer as the mine for processing - and much quicker production.
I cannot understand the dropping SP - I'd said I had stopped buying but moving some funds now - never thought we'd be below the placing price, and now we are. I will keep holding. However this sector is continuing to take a pasting.
Hydrogen the shorter - he is posting extremely positive things about potential - some may even call it ramping - encouraging others to buy the shares he is shorting? Anyway many know his background. Geologist working for NC - not credible IMHO.
Dip
Systematic process, area is under cover, don’t believe in expensive pattern drilling. Believe in drilling a hole, understanding that, reflecting on it, recalibrating understanding of the region and then going back in.
That gives me really good reassurance - drilling deep is expensive - and that makes much more sense - might take longer - might be quicker if you put next drill in a better place, but deep exploration is hard - and costly.
The deep holes in the North or North West - always intrigue me.
Drillers first to see cores - experienced drillers probably can tell when core is promising.
Site Geologists next to see cores - might be first to see the split cores - will have a good idea of what's there
NC TrueScan techs next to see the cores - and NC will have lots of great data before sending the interesting cores to the labs for assays (I don't believe they send core sections that don't look so good)
Every company tries not to have leaks when the drill is taking cores out of ground - but there are always some with a very good idea of what is happening
Just wish I knew some of them. On Hav blocks - GGP guys on JV management ctte should know same as NCM. Therefore so does SD - although he will be limited in what he can say.
Spades, I read this board regularly. I have seen nothing about a move to vote out AB, or reasons to do or I may have voted.
I have never voted through HL unless mandatory, but do know how to, and would if required.
Not lazy, but unless very well organised pi’s normally cannot influence.
I would be happy if that happened to my Canadian junior play, Northern Superior. Been there a while, but would like a big gain to invest elsewhere.
Filling my post of 21.03 last night.
I said I would be surprised if NC would take part in any underhand attempted takeover of GGP, but a hedge fund would do exactly the opposite.
If there was a low ball takeover bid being orchestrated, it would be undesirable for both GGP and NC. In this scenario, I could then see NC starting negotiations with GGP for a non hostile takeover, or assisting GGP fend off an unwanted hostile takeover.
Anyway I hope non of those scenarios ever come to pass, and I would be instructions HL to vote against with all our shares.
Bamps, totally agree with your post about the board.
My rules are read and reply in a manner I would like to be replied to, never get abusive to others in a personal manner, and ignore any baiting and do not respond.
I am a big supporter of Hydrogen and the research he shares. He has admitted some of his postings yesterday maybe not the best, but hard when you are being attacked not to respond.
NC already own 70% - deserved in my opinion - and even at $400m dollars - a bargain price. If they had not found GGP and Hav - they would have spent a fortune decommissioning the Telfer mine.
Now they are looking potentially at a further 30 years of profit from Hav/Telfer before they cross this bridge again. No wonder Sandeep smiles every time he mentions it.
NC now been drilling with 8 rigs for 2 years - still open in multiple directions - and new targets within Hav blocks - Hav has the potential to truly be a block caving monster. But it's going to take a bit of time to find out resource size - could take years.
So would NCM like the other 30% - of course they would. They would want to get it at the best price - but I doubt they would be part of any underhand activities - nowadays a company's reputation has huge value.
Would they try and take out a junior explorer - and partner in other JV's with a very lowball unfair offer - I'd be surprised.
Would a hedge fund try and take out GGP with a lowball underhand offer - yes they would - but they cannot succeed if a large majority of the shareholders refuse to sell.
The real unknown is at the moment if we are going to find any more hav, 0.5 Hav or even 0.25 hav in the Paterson, and if we will find something good on 100% ground. Any takeover bid will get harder as more gold /cu and other PM's in the ground is proven.
Like many I wish I'd sold some at high price - I've not sold and have kept adding. Like many I'll be gutted if we get taken out with lowball offer - but I think this is extremely unlikely.
Paddy has shared everything - including his strategy - but everyone decides their own strategy.
Anyone at the AGM - please put some good questions to SD. GLA.