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I just wonder if it's about risk of being invested in Nicaragua. I have not invested in any producers - unfortunately. All my junior explorers have suffered badly over the last year, including CNR.
I did wonder about reducing here to invest in less risky jurisdictions (Australia/Canada) - there are some atrractive plays in Africa but that also carries higher level of risk.
I hope it's news of a toll deal that has leaked - if finance is a problem, not sure Jim Mellon would want to be heavily invested and Financing the mine - if finance is risky normally comes at higher cost - so toll deal would give us early income.
Looking at calibre - couple of presentations - exploration growth in Nicaragua looks good - am sure Condor will also grow their reserves once the mine is built and they have income.
I think until we see assays from Ascot, it's too early to be speaking about fundraise or future drilling campaigns. I also think we need to put some holes into the other targets and see the assays from these.
If these assays show promise, then I'd be all for another fundraise and drilling to increase value of the asset before XTR sell it. However - this all makes the timescale to sale much longer - so depends on what CB and the BOD want.
Tig/Bamps/Brleigh/Bancal et all - some wonderful posts this morning.
I was in SXX for a very short while and made a small profit before getting out - it was a huge project, a very good project, but huge sums of cash required over a very long time. If AA take it over - I will be sorry for all those who lost, but it will bring jobs and revenue to an area that needs it.
I was worried my portfolio was too focussed on PM's - and this sector has taken a battering lately - but your posts have restored my belief that with patience - most of my investments will come good. I do take up to £5K punts on more risky small explorers - in the full knowledge these are very risky.
Bamps - not been here too much in last couple of weeks - reading when I can - busy - but thanks for sharing all your research, and completely agree it's going to get bigger - the Hav ore body - and hopefully we are going to find some more in the Hav blocks - next set of results might be even more revealing.
Our other blocks - I think we'll have to have more patience - hopefully we strike early - but it is very exploring and exploring deep.
SP - like many disappointed we are still trading below the placing price, I've not bought any more shares - the whole junior mining sector has been performing very poorly, while I speak to friends who have DC managed pension funds where the managers seem to have had great success over the last year in other sectors.
So just sitting waiting for sentiment to return to this sector. Going to be very interested to watch other juniors and how SP performs when they have a strike.
You know I am in XTR who have just declared a second porphyry - Ascot next to Racecourse, no assays yet though, good increase in SP but now drifting down again. Have not bought but watching Kav with interest.
Schlemiel - welcome back - I invested in XTR and was very happy when I also saw you and there are a couple of other known posters invested across there. Good to see you back in here.
GLA - hopefully sentiment will return to the PM's market.
NCM are managing Hav. They are a world class underground mining company. They have done a PFS for phase 1 of the development of Hav - with detailed timelines of how the first ore will be mined and delivered to Telfer. They have committed to invested hundreds of millions of dollars to do this. There will be no long lead time items that will delay PH1 mining IMHO.
The bulk mining operation will take much more years to build. Yes there is no formal decision to mine yet - this will come at FS next year. They are going flat out to have ore at Telfer ASAP to save having to mothball it or operate Telfer at a loss.
That's my opinion anyway - if I had any doubts I'd have sold - but I have continued buying - granted - wished I had waited - all my 2021 purchases now showing a loss. But saved by my earlier ones.
I am happy to give SD and his team the benefit of the doubt for the late and unexpected to most placing. Lets see what he says next week.
Canary 3 - it's very hard to find an accurate figure I have seen an estimate for diamond core drilling of $200 - $250 per metre - but as you go deeper it takes longer and costs go up. Best way to calculate would be to see how much funds are used for a drilling programme from cpy accounts and compare it to metres drilled - but the accounts for NCM probably do not have that amount of detail.
Our financial report from June 2021 does not have that detail that I can find. But in the year to June 2021 our salary bill was £1.4m - I think that will now have increased - as SD has a couple of new people onboard. Until we have income stream, this also needs to come from existing funds, fund raises - be very hard to borrow to keep the lights on, although project costs including wages can be funded by borrowing.
I would have liked to buy more early this morning near the placing price - but to do so I would have needed to sell either some AIM shares or some funds - funds take longer to get the money to buy - so I missed out - decided not to sell any other shares I have.
I see a lot of people being very critical of SD - for me he has the benefit of the doubt, I am sure we will soon know the reason for the placing. I don't believe it was to give directors a discounted way in.
I'd have no problem with the directors being able to earn shares as a bonus as long as it was linked to company performance, and the only real measure just now is Mcap.
I'd never heard of this system with Primary Bid until yesterday.
June 2021 financial report page 40. Current cash, £6.2 million. Current liabilities £3.5m, non current liabilities £16.3m.
So cash position £2.7m - and this would be for 100% owned assets drilling?
If someone could clarify - non current liabilities would be the amount of the loan from NCM we have used so far?
I have no idea what is going on. Giving II's a foothold in company on the cheap - not a big enough placing. SD - maybe he still has inside knowledge and cannot buy shares on open market, but when placings are being done directors would be allowed to participate at same terms as others?
My guess is this is for increased unplanned drilling at Havieron in the main. I'd love it if we had found something on a 100% owned play that needed a lot of extra drilling. Not Juri anyway as first $20m AU is covered by NCM.
Other shares where I have seen placings - the SP has dropped to placing price. Some recover and some stay there.
There is a difference in my eyes with a pacing that is for exploration drilling - or to keep the cpy lights on by paying salaries when no assets are involved and there is no added value.
When there is a placing / fund raise - to buy equipment or to drill to prove up more resource which will increase asset value - I see these as generally positive.
At least in this case the placing shares do not come with warrants giving rights to buy at fixed price in the future - as a PI that's the type I get most upset with being excluded from.
The morning will be interesting - many people unhappy - will they rush to sell their shares - I'd think not. At least this was done before AGM when q's can be asked.
Interesting day tomorrow - but I am here for the long term.
Interesting thread. I was lucky to buy sub 1.8p during that period - just never bought enough.
I did keep topping up as SP rose up to about 12p, then stopped - this was a mistake but not my biggest one. I started buying again, averaging up, from just under 20p right up to morning of Scallywag results - when I put in £20K at 33p - that was my biggest mistake - getting caught up in FOMO.
Like many wish I had sliced then - but can only hopefully learn. I have topped up considerably this year, still averaging up.
I believe the long term fundamentals of Haverion should easily get us to 50p, and possibly far higher - in time - so patience required - and if we strike lucky again - then we will go even higher - but again - no quick gain here - will take time.
I do look around other aim shares - and am willing to speculate £5K on riskier plays - where I don't have much time to research, but to go above that amount - i need to research, then compare what I think are potential returns - compared to GGP. This year most of my investment, not all has gone in GGP. I think it is derisked - but will take time to produce returns.
I only put money in AIM I can manage to live without - AIM is a very risky place - but can have high rewards.
I also think it's important to spread risk, but SaS has decided GGP with NCM as partner is very low risk, and I agree with this - so you need to decide on risk level when investing.
I keep reading that PI's continue to own >80% of GGP shares - if this was being manipulated by II's - surely this % should be falling? That's the bit that baffles me.
My GGP ownership in is the 7 figures - but low range of that - and have 7p average. I am happy at that. Only way now if I put in more is if I sell at large profit some of my others.
My biggest mistake - not taking profit and slicing - I have never traded - mainly due to lack of time - but would in future - not daily or becoming a trader - but trying to sell on spike and buy back in on dips to increase holding. If I believe in fundamentals - I'll be in a share long term. Very important - having trustworthy and not lifestyle BOD who can bleed small AIM companies dry.
me too - £5K top up at lunchtime. Been swithering here or XTR - went here.
Academy - interesting - I used AISC from NC press release - they are significantly lower than the Pretivm ones quoted in their annual reports. Not got time to look and see if Pretivm have debt costs built in and NCM are clearing debt.
Anyway - district scale potential is what has attracted NC - Red Chris success probably got them looking for more Canadian assets they could pick up.
https://www.newcrest.com/sites/default/files/2021-11/211109_Newcrest%20agrees%20to%20acquire%20Pretium%20Resources%20–%20Market%20Release.pdf
estimated gold production of 311koz per annum at an All-In Sustaining Cost of $743 per ounce of gold over a projected 13 year mine life
Newcrest already had 4.8% of the shares. Pretivm shareholders being offered 24% premium on their share price.
Looks very smart buy from NC. NC will own 6 tier 1 ore bodies. 140 km from Red Chris.
Hi Bamps - OK all noted and you know I appreciate the advice. I am going to be much more cautious at XTR and next weekend have a much closer look. Thank you, I know it is much more high risk than here. Maybe I need more caution - I know junior explorers can be very dangerous.
Joe - currently I have too many strings on my bow - I have seen IRR mentioned before. I sort of count my AIM investments - £5K and below - happy to take a high risk punt, but do not have enough time to fully research - I missed out before selling some of these when they bagged/multi bagged or were in profit - and this was a mistake on my part. When I invested on these thought I'd get quick gains and move it into my longer term PM investments.
In this category I have UFO/OMI/PALM/RMM/BZT - and I will at some point in the future move these.
Above £5K and more serious AIM I have GGP - my largest by far and have an average around 7p and so still healthy profits - but have invested heavily in 2021 from 33 downwards. I have averaged up to 7p.
SML - been in there a long time - my 2nd biggest investment and 70% down. CNR significant investment - slightly ahead. XTR large investment - slightly down. N.SUP - slightly ahead. Not quite so big as the others.
I also hold some funds - which is where I started - and quite a lot of shares in an Energy company where I was employed and built a healthy holding
Have enjoyed very much learning more about mining and PM's - and hoping GGP will financially secure my families future (might take a few years), and hoping for good returns from others.
GGP my strategy now is hold - and then let the strategy develop along with exploration results. Not expecting miracles - but would be delighted with even a half Hav find. Especially on 100% owned land.
The talk about NC JV is interesting, I completely agree that JV has been wonderful for GGP and Hav - could not have been better. NCM have also done very well from it - they have a Tier 1 mine that will keep Telfer going - likely for decades and deliver a lot of value for their shareholders - and they also took a risk on the HAV JV. I think it's going to prove a wonderful investment by them.
When NC bought 70% of Red Chris - they paid $807 US million. They brought their exploration and underground mining expertise to the party.
The Juri JV - 70% of that acreage for $20mill Au - will be a huge bargain if we find anything economic. I was initially disappointed with that JV, but in reality - GGP needed finance to power ahead with Hav, and the deal was good for both.
SD biggest challenge will be if we strike on a 100% owned tenement. I think JV again would be a sensible option - to share risk - but I'd expect to negotiate a bigger share of the rewards - but majors normally like a large %, but some are willing to pay a lot of the costs of the junior partner. Would be a very nice problem to have for us. GLA
Been here since 2017 - so much less than some others, luckily I bought another £14K in 2019 between 17 and 21p, brought my average down, but £5K in 2020 at 42p and £5K Jan 21 at 53p - look very stupid purchases now. Have 145K shares at 34p average. Gutted I never sold out when we reached 70p in April 2017 - bad call, and we also reached 57p in May 2020. Could have placed the funds somewhere better then.
I'd like to see a toll deal. The last placing with warrants to the selected few has disappointed me - normal shareholders are always excluded from this. I'd like to see the tolling prevent any need for further placing and dilution, and get finance for mine build sorted ASAP. We need to get production started as soon as possible - and I'd accept tolling to give us income quicker.
Not sure though how keen the BOD are on a tolling deal.
What have I learned here, avoid politically unstable country investments, and even with a good discovery - takes years and years to get to production.
Hopefully the PM's sector will have a bit of a revival. I think copper miners will gain value quicker than gold miners due to increased demand.
However really believe in the resource in the ground - and thought MC with JM/RB on board would have progressed this quicker than we have.
The JORC code is extremely complex, and the competent person has a hugely important role. Extract below from section 28.
An 'Ore Reserve’ is the economically mineable part of a Measured and/or Indicated Mineral Resource.
It includes diluting materials and allowances for losses, which may occur when the material is mined or extracted and is defined by studies at Pre-Feasibility or Feasibility level as appropriate that include application of Modifying Factors.
Such studies demonstrate that, at the time of reporting, extraction could reasonably be justified. The key underlying assumptions and outcomes of the Pre-Feasibility Study or Feasibility Study must be disclosed at the time of reporting of a new or materially changed Ore Reserve.
Pre-feasibility and Feasibility studies are defined in Paragraphs 36 and 37 below.
Ore Reserves are sub-divided in order of increasing confidence into Probable and Proved.
In reporting Ore Reserves, information on estimated mineral processing recovery factors is very important, and should always be included in Public Reports. Source below
https://jorc.org/docs/2012_jorc_update_exposure_draft.pdf
So for being part of a PFS/FS - the resource estimate that can be used to assess economic viability must be indicated. However a company can I think publish various categories of MRE. In the NCM 2021 annual report, they report Measure/Indicate and Inferred for their assets - and probably and proven reserves.
Its a hugely complex area - and the role of the JORC code and competent person is to protect investors and ensure companies report accurately.
Hi Bamps - you know I appreciate your posts - and have total respect for your calcs - and I am heeding your warnings.
My understanding, the 71Mt was the existing JORC inferred resource when XTR took over. Since then there has been a lot more exploration drilling, which is still ongoing - 2 rigs with diamond drills to about 1000m, so not quick drilling. The holes where there have been assays back have so far been decent- for a porphyry - but as you said previously - pretty little gold and just copper, and not the best grades - even for porphyry.
I follow a lot this guy on the XTR board - http://icebergshares.blogspot.com/ he has been invested there for some time.
I have also watched Colin Bird speak about the project at a few meetings - I know many like him and many don't - it's AIM, if he is a snake oil salesman he is very good.
I know it's very risky compared to here.
My Canadian play increased 30% on Friday - not always easy to find out why - I am away to dig. Had fallen from $1.50 to $0.56ish, back up to $0.78. This one has good backers, and I have a good source here - who tell me the CEO and board are very optimistic about their exploration plays, one of which has been on hold for the whole of Covid.
Joe - yes he has - and he is no spring chicken. Interestingly I looked at the XTR board earlier, but after I replied to you and Lenz - they were discussing the same article you posted. I read several boards - but this one first.
Lenz, Joe - the other cpy where I am invested with the copper play is XTR, Bushranger in As is the bit that excites me.
However I am not recommending it or tipping it - has been discussed on here before, and Bamps21 - whose opinion I value greatly - thinks the low grades and the fact there is no gold does not make this a commercial prospect.
It was owned by AngloAmerican and given up - but they have a buy back option for 80% if XTR prove there is more than 2mt JORC approved resource.
And to be clear, I am not interested in GGP via XTR or any others. GGP is a completely re-risked investment for me, and I have put 5-6 times more into GGP than I have in XTR, and if I get good quick gains there - and GGP still remains low - it will likely end up invested here.
Many also do not think we should discuss other companies here - but if it were not that GGP was discussed on another board I was invested in, I would never have found it.
I have other long term mining investments where I was ahead, and am now either just ahead or way down, where I wish I had sold and invested it here - this to me is the lowest risk aim investment, with still potential to bag, or multi bag.
But for me - as well as putting more into GGP this year, I am also still happy to take a punt with smaller amounts on higher risk investments.