Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Sorry Tom - I will try - it must be one of those learned typing mistakes. I will shorten to Hav in future :-) Probably not weeks - probably years.
Yes I did say I was looking at things in a very simplistic manner - so AISC etc not taken into account - but just trying to get ball park ideas. At the end of the day the market will decide the valuation.
But more than willing to see other more accurate means of market valuation - if there is such a thing.
I find valuation as fascinating as the geology and mining techniques – I am expert in none.
I have looked at our excellent JV Partner NCM.
At 31/20/20 – this is the information from their reserves report – which can be found on their site
Gold Measured and Indicated Mineral Resources 97 million ounces (2019 100 million)
Gold Inferred Mineral Resources – 11 million ounces (2019 9.5)
Copper Measured and Indicated Mineral Resources 17 million tonnes (2019 17 mt)
Copper Inferred Mineral Resources – 2.3 mt (2019 2.2)
Silver Measured and Indicated Mineral Resources 87 million ounces (2019 89 million)
Silver Inferred Mineral Resources – 5.4 million ounces (2019 5.5)
I’ll ignore the Polymetallic. Price assumptions Gold $1400/0z, copper $3.40 per lb, Silver $21/oz
NCM MC $19Billion Aus – or £10.5 Billion. I think it’s widely accepted NCM is undervalued.
NC have a large amount of assets – income and profits.
Now my simple mind – lets ignore copper and silver, but assume Haverion is 20moz gold, and GGP have 30% that’s 6 moz. Or 6% of the gold reserves of NCM.
GGP have some other assets – but not with huge value, and will not have income until 2024 and profit until much later once Haverion loan and Capex share is paid off.
Simple calc – 6% of £10.5 billion is £0.63 billion. (could be 30 or 40 moz gold or more)
I have always been and still am very positive about Haverion, and GGP having acreage that could produce other major finds – but framed with realisation that exploring is difficult, and very large finds are rare.
I think if I did same calculation with Newmont/Rio/Barrack etc – would probably give higher figure for GGP using this method.
I’d be more than happy to be corrected or enlightened if I have went bonkers – I do know that value of gold in ground does not translate to MCAP to SP – it will take at least 30 years to get the gold out of the ground.
Is this why we are seeing takeover figures being bandied about at 40/50p range?
Seingred - I have made a little on OMI - went into GGP - still have a very small holding purchased at 18. I was originally in very low and missed selling at highs - same for UFO and BZT - also sold some of them at profit for more GGP. Also have a little in Palm and RMM - RMM was going to sell as soon as dilution was mentioned - was up then - now down about 60%. But these are small - my main miners are GGP/CNR/XTR - and unfortunately SML where I am sat on huge loss. When it temporarily went up to 0.9 should have cut and run.
This investing lark is not easy in AIM - but I invested well in GGP and can only see a bright future there. My main learning - going from exploration to mining is not quick - and plenty peaks and troughs along the road.
Seingred - given groundworks have been ongoing a while and design seems to be almost there - was thinking 18-24 months. But may have to go for used plant option given what we see with materials issues etc nowadays.
MC seemed quite upbeat in the last video.
I have still never sold any Condor - am just in profit where we are now - but do think there are potential quicker gains on AIM - with much more risk though.
I was sitting on healthy gains with N.SUP in Canada at $1.50 - now back to circa $0.65 - but I know senior people in that company have never been more confident in the future. I need to learn how to top slice and move in/out. I do not really have the time - my strategy has been to find somewhere I think fundamentals are good and invest for the long term - but in mining the long can become very long!
Sort of excited in XTR at the moment. GGP will keep me excited. That's where my recent investments have been going - but I could be wrong. Lucky at GGP - sitting on a healthy profit - but again should have sliced before.
Don't know why the showed the cadia location. But when I was researching XTR and Bushranger - saw the geology and area it was in, and the similarity in geology to cadia and proximity - I was hooked.
The cadia success story over the years is amazing - now over 40moz eq recoverable and negative AISC.
So for me - although nothing is guaranteed - even 10% of Cadia would be fantastic. As of Dec 21 - Cadia East Indicated reserves
Gold, 2900 M dmt, 0.35 g/t 32Moz
Copper, 2900 M dmt, 0.26% 7.4 Mt
Silver, 2900 M dmt, 0.67 g/t 62Moz
Molybdenum, 2900 M dmt, 64 ppm 0.19 Mt
We can but dream - XTR going at impressive pace. I am hoping for good things here - but always aware mining and mining exploration is not easy and can have setbacks.
XTR are doing exploration drilling. They are not yet really doing full JORC required drilling to prove up resource - although the current exploration drill holes and assays can be used for this.
Yes they could have more rigs - but this costs more money - and before you start JORC drilling at defined spacing, you want to be very sure you are drilling in the correct places - with the likely highest grades first. Also it's nice to know hole results to know where to go to next.
For anything to count towards JORC mineral resource, it must have been drilled/sampled at defined intervals - and can only be included if it is economically recoverable. So if you have to build a mine and infrastructure and have high Capex - you need to have a large resource. If you are going underground bulk mining, this is also high capex - but low opex. The lowest capex option is open pit - which XTR are going for.
Inferred Mineral Resource - estimated on the basis of limited geological evidence and sampling. Geological evidence is sufficient to imply but not verify geological and grade (or quality) continuity. It is based on exploration, sampling and testing information gathered through appropriate techniques.
An Inferred Mineral Resource has a lower level of confidence than that applying to an Indicated Mineral Resource and must not be converted to an Ore Reserve.
Indicated Mineral Resource - quantity, grade (or quality), densities, shape and physical characteristics are estimated with sufficient confidence to allow the application of Modifying Factors in sufficient detail to support mine planning and evaluation of the economic viability of the deposit.
Indicated Mineral Resource has a lower level of confidence than that applying to a Measured Mineral Resource and may only be converted to a Probable Ore Reserve.
Measured Mineral Resource - quantity, grade (or quality), densities, shape, and physical characteristics are estimated with confidence sufficient to allow the application of Modifying Factors to support detailed mine planning and final evaluation
of the economic viability of the deposit.
Measured Mineral Resource has a higher level of confidence than that applying to either anIndicated Mineral Resource or an Inferred Mineral Resource. It may be converted to a Proved Ore Reserve or under certain circumstances to a Probable Ore Reserve.
All this is judged by The Competent Person. So Inferred can be achieved from exploration drilling. Then more drilling at reduced spacing required to get to the higher levels.
Probable Ore Reserve - the economically mineable part of an Indicated, and in some circumstances, a Measured Mineral Resource. The confidence in the Modifying Factors applying to a Probable Ore Reserve is lower than that applying to a Proved Ore Reserve.
Scoping Study is an order of magnitude technical and economic study of the potential viability of Mineral Resources.
A Scoping Study must not be used as the basis for estimation
Floater. The Haverion Joint Venture has a 5 person management committee. 3 from NC and 2 from GGP. I don’t know who they are. This is from the JV agreement.
I would expect NC to share every bit of information they have on Haverion at this management committee. We don’t know the full text of the legal agreement of course.
Where I think SD’s hands will be tied is NC have full control of what is released to the public.
If NC had been intending a takeover of GGP, I think they would have started building a position, but those with access to Bloomberg have no indication of this.
Also seems to be no real indication of II’s investing en Masse now PFS is issued.
This is a long game. But much shorter than other mining projects. NC are going flat out to get Haverion ore to Telfer and flat out drilling the Haverion prospect, the only reasons they are doing this is they suspect it’s huge, and they want to be able to have Telfer going flat out with both trains. Haverion stage 1 will feed 1 Telfer train. Telfer will continue to feed the other at lower grades for a few years.
That’s why I intend to ignore the small NPV for stage 1.
54.5p - think once elections pass - if they pass peacefully with no issues - we may see a slow start upwards. Finance deal to build the mine will be key. Should not take too long to build the mine and get to production, and income, and the drill is giving good results.
I am heavily invested in GGP and have a decent amount here. I've been in GGP much longer.
I agree about the quality of posts on here - but would say there are equally detailed quality posts on the GGP board - but they are much harder to find.
Find the views interesting from Iceberg about investing to make only 4% per year.
If you look at the speed and effort NC are putting into Haverion development - why would they be doing that for 4% PA for 10 years, they started the decline before they got to PFS. There are 8/9 drilling rigs working literally 24/7 all year round, during Covid - only stopping when the weather intervenes. My belief is there is still huge upside there - but will take time (years) to prove up and will be mined and developed in stages. What will be really interesting is if that area of the Paterson hosts other ore bodies like Telfer, Haverion or Winu.
I hope the same is true here. I guess success brings the type of board we have at GGP - much harder to keep up with than this one.
My mistake at GGP has not been top slicing - and I have made some buys when SP was far too high, but my average is still relatively low.
Here I also bought too high, but have averaged down to just above current SP - so am hoping for good upside.
Bamps and Hydrogen are the experts on Grades. But there are underground mines operating very profitably in Australia with grades well below 2.5g/t - which many would consider to be stunning grades for underground bulk caving.
Best example is probably Cadia East Underground Mine - 100% owned and developed by Haverion 70% owner NCM.
https://www.mining-technology.com/projects/cadia/
OK - the geology is different - it's mainly porphyry and veins - but the grades - as of December 2015, the total mineral resources were estimated at 2,800Mt graded at 0.40g/t Au and 0.26% Cu. But the size of the mine is huge, and bulk underground mining is very cost effective - was also discovered with an already built and operating mine - right on it's doorstep.
The Cadia East Underground gold and copper mine is the first Australian panel cave and the country’s largest underground mine, with significant ore reserves and a projected lifespan of more than 30 years.
Now at Haverion - the PFS only considers a very small part of the Haverion Ore Body. SD has emphasised this several times.
There is a huge amount of drilling data to be added to the next resource update, and NC are still drilling and exploring at Haverion - open in several directions with new exploration targets identified in the Haverion Tenement.
The potential upside at Haverion is IMHO huge.
When you look at the history of Cadia - it truly is district scale with mine discoveries and underground mine development in stages - which I said at weekend is how Haverion will be developed. In stages with several PFS/FS
That's why I'll continue sitting on my hands and if this SP dips again to 15/16 - I will top up more.
Yes - GGP possibly will not have income until 2024 - and then have CAPEX repayment - but not a huge amount - of course if the 5% option is taken by NC - we will have income - a lump sum.
Patience required - I never thought the SP would take off at PFS - again expectations which SD tried to dampen were too high. Next drilling results I am sure again will be stunning - lets wait and see.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dB77ag0Dj1w This video showing the history and development of Cadia - including underground mines - shows potentially what district scale discoveries can bring. I hold in hope Haverion will be similar.
I also hope - but without huge expectations of another discovery on GGP ground.
2 posts since Friday - hard to believe. Thought the video was a very good watch.
I must admit the elections have had me nervous for a while - and I did consider selling some and sticking in GGP when it was down at 16p. But I never.
So like many holding and hoping for better days ahead. The drill is giving excellent results. Finance for mine build is the next really important milestone. Interesting to hear MC saying he has had offers.
I agree it's time for a deep breath - and that generally the market understands what information has been released.
That is 4.2 Moz of gold and copper, drilling ongoing. No PFS or FS or decision to mine.
Many will not know exploration decline has been started ahead of PFS, and will not know the rush NC are in to get this mine in production and feeding Telfer, and they certainly do not know what has been shared here by some of our more knowledgeable posters.
A company where Pi's hold the majority of the shares will be subject to volatility in SP. Especially on AIM where the herd comes and goes.
I would say many will be expecting too much from the PFS - I hope I am wrong and I get some pleasant surprises. Certainly if NC are worried about being a takeover target - they may want to be less conservative in the news they release. Who knows.
Tymers said yesterday many investors will have a target price to exit GGP, some will some won't.
I came here in 2019 tipped on another chat forum, read the info on the GGP website and many posts on here - and made my first purchases at 1.6/1.7p. It was a speculative investment and I'd have been delighted to exit at 10p. But 10p came and went and I kept buying - because what I saw was the drilling results and the ore body growing in size. I then started looking more heavily into our partner, NC and mining methods and costs and bulk mining. I did revise my target to 20p. But that also cam and went - and I decided as long as Haverion was still open - I'd not set any more targets. That's where I am at - been topping up ever since.
I watch with interest potential speculated share prices for GGP. I don't have any exit strategy. I think there will be more peaks and troughs as we go along the road to production. I just keep watching - and am excited by the potential at Haverion - think finding other big discoveries on other other exploration areas will be much more challenging and difficult - and expecting many holes which will not find mineralisation. It is like looking for a needle in a haystack.
WelshFalcon - thanks for that post - I have logged in to my HL account - so cannot be setup to be recurring - needs to be done for every AGM or Extraordinary meeting. Text below, and as you say would need to be done well in advance, you can instruct by secure message.
2If you wish to attend a meeting and vote you can be appointed as a proxy by Hargreaves Lansdown Nominees Limited and attend and vote in respect of your holding held on your behalf by Hargreaves Lansdown Nominees Limited. A request to be appointed proxy can be sent to Hargreaves Lansdown by secure message or post. Please note, 5 business days' notice in advance of the date of the meeting is required in order to vote/attend. Alternatively, if you wish to vote without attending the meeting you can send (by secure message or post) a voting instruction to Hargreaves Lansdown and your vote will be forwarded to the company."
Jerry - very interesting post.
I have thought for a long time - since not long after the SP drop post scallywag results that it would make send for NC to start building a stake in GGP - but there so far is no evidence they have been doing this.
I would be devastated if NC submitted a low ball takeover offer for Greatland Gold - but probably being naive - think they could not get us on the cheap. And I think even 50p would be very cheap.
From the Nov 20 JV Update
"The Joint Venture Management Committee will be comprised of a maximum of five representatives. As at Establishment Date, Newcrest shall be entitled to appoint three representatives and Greatland shall be entitled to appoint two representatives to the Management Committee."
I would therefore expect GGP to have all the data that NC have about exactly what we have got at Haverion - NC could not legally withhold any information from the JV management committee? Currently GGP would be prohibited from releasing any Haverion information - this must come from NC as they are the JV managers.
But if NC launched a hostile takeover bid - GGP would be able to release all Haverion info as part of defending what they think would be a fair valuation?
However I also know NC are large and have much deeper pockets than GGP - who until the ore starts coming out of the ground have no income - and I'd be more gutted if it ended in a legal bun fight with only the corporate lawyers getting rich.
I do think that NC are undervalued and would be an attractive takeover or merger target for a bigger major, and if Haverion is as big as we think makes them even more attractive. What NC have also done at Cadia and Red Chris is also seriously impressive - and their expertise and knowledge also would make them an attractive merger target.
Anyway us PI's are small fry, and although our family have a 7 figure share holding held with HL - I don't even know how to vote - I suspect many PI's are the same.
Hydrogen - it's us that should be thanking you, and many other great contributors to this board. I hope TMT is doing well in his new chosen path, and his thoughts would have been great to be aware of on the recent happenings.
Great post - and those potential valuations are only based on Haverion - and we have lot's of other prime exploration areas.
However - I am not getting too carried away, for me I have always thought we need to be patient and realise that this will take years to get to it's full potential. We still have no income, and we will need funds to continue our exploration programme each year, especially if we are to retain 100% ownership of our no JV tenements.
However, the PFS followed by the FS next year for Haverion, and the breakneck speed our world class partner NCM are going at to get Haverion ore to Telfer, will make if very easy for Sean and the team at GGP to be able to raise funding by borrowing.
The potential valuations you mention are fantastic, but we could find another Hvaverion or mini Haverions on our other targets, although investors should realise that deep drilling is slow and costly, and finding ore bodies is very hard, and finding large ore bodies is even harder - as borne out by the exploration data worldwide for the last 20 years.
Only time will tell if GH and CB and the team at GGP were extremely skilled in where they put the drill in the ground at Haverion, or skilled and also very lucky.
Feeling very positive this weekend, and have believed in this company ever since I was brought here by a poster on another board. When I look at the total investment I have made here, which is for me very significant, 13% in 2019, 39% in 2020, and 48% in 2021. My 2021 buys now at break even (21.5p average) , very healthy gains on the 2019/2020 investments. Overall average 6.95p.
Like many others this could be life changing for me. Very hopeful and optimistic, but still aware there are risks, but in my opinion small. My only regret was my caution in 2019/2020. I have other junior miners in our ISA/SIPP - but none with less risk than GGP.
GLA - and Thanks to all the great posters on this board. I hope you guys that go to the Stag have a great night next week.
schleimel - I remember you from the GGP board - unlike you I held and added and very happy there. Also have decent holding here - bought in too early but must just be about break even now.
I saw potentially a lot of similarities with here and Cadia - but nothing is guaranteed.
Iceberg's knowledge and posts are amazing. I am hoping for good things here too. I do not have nearly so many shares here as GGP - but just under 600K tickets here.
Texlax - nice post - I am another who has always enjoyed your input - but you have been quiet for a while? I also bought - quite a lot - on the morning of the scallywag results before they dropped - at around 33p - and have been buying all year, never selling, bought some more this week. I am lucky - bought my first at 1.6ish and bought on the way up. Average now just under 7p.
Have always been here for the long haul - my initial target was 10p. Don't have a target now - and the game has got longer - due to the size of Haverion.
Jonesrichard - not seen you for a while - at least now you quickly retracted your 100 bagger claim. I hope this will bag several or multiple times - but this will only happen over a decent time period - talking years not months.
If you look at Lassonde curve, would imagine we were art bottom of dip where we move from feasibility to development/start up - which shows typically 2 - 3 years. NC will do this quicker here, within 2 years from now I think - they have moved at impressive pace from the first drills going in at start of JV.
The next bit of the lassonde curve is depletion - but the difference here is I think this will be delayed - as we drill and explore more and find more - pure speculation of course - but this or body is "beautiful vertical large ore body" and open in several directions. This will be mined in stages - with further PFS/FS at each stage. The Haverion story will I hope go on for a long time, and as others have also speculated - if this turns into district scale discovery - well will be great for GGP holders.
Still important not to get too carried away - I did in the run up to Scally results - on our other JV and 100% owned tenements - a strike or another Haverion is not guaranteed - and exploration especially when drilling deep is difficult, slow and expensive. My hands are still sore - but I think I'll be sitting on them for a good while yet.
GLA
Some will probably find the PFS results disappointing - as many have stated it's not likely to have an increased figure on the 4.2Moz. This will come later. As will the FS next year. Even that will not be the final feasibility we will ever see.
But delivery of the PFS is the most important thing - for me there was never any doubt this ore body would be mined and feeding Telfer - the PFS confirms this.
The problem here - and it's a very nice problem is - the ore body is still open in several directions - and it looks like new finds on the edges of the ore body - so NC don't know how big this is going to end up, and until they know this - they won't be able to define at this current time exactly how this huge ore body will be mined over time.
But - they will know they are going to mine this is stages - the first stage and priority is to get the sulphide zone high grade ore at the shallowest depths to Telfer ASAP to feed Telfer and keep it running and profitable.
Other stages will follow, with other PFS/FS for reach stage, with an ever increasing resource size.
Just look at the history of cadia - and how the resource has grown over the years. My belief is that the Haverion resource figure will grow much quicker as the "beautifully shaped vertical ore body" is all in the same place and is huge - but will probably take a couple more years of drilling to prove what is there - they need to start drilling deeper from the decline once it is ready.
And as Hydro has once again eloquently stated, the best place to find gold is close to where you have found gold already.
Long term this will be a fantastic return for investors I hope, but there will be dips on the way up.
2 minute Cadia drilling history video - Haverion resource size IMHO will grow much quicker than this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dB77ag0Dj1w
SpadesASpade - excellent post IMHO. I actually bought on the morning of the SWAG results at 33.5p I think it was.
As I have posted previously that was down to me - and me alone - I make the investment decisions based on what I decide is credible. I was foolish - I was carried away with fear of missing out and thinking another strike on SWAG was a certainty. But I learned from this.
With regards to JoeBass - I will never take anything he posts or says again seriously - I have not read in detail all his posts from that time but seem to recall claims of inside knowledge and may posts saying SP would increase on results.
It has I think actually made some people with good sources (Spy) less willing to posy=t insight they may have.
Thanks goodness Hydrogen and Bamp and Paddy and some others continue to provide excellent research and knowledge to investors.
I am still confident I'll profit from my 33p buys, and all the others I have made since then, but also fortunate I was buying earlier at 1.6/1.7 and on the way up (but never bought enough as I was being too cautious).
Anyway - GLA - I topped up again today. Even although I said I was done - looked at XTR but decided here was a less risky choice.
yes still bemused - I mucked up my calcs - you are of course correct.
Hydrogen is again correct - dilution is common in junior miners as they need more funding to explore and pay salaries - until they are lucky enough to strike. I believe there was plenty dilution at GGP before I invested, but luckily as Hydrogen says - there is no longer any need to GGP for dilution - they will be able to take out loans against future income from Haverion. Been too busy today at work. Chill time.