Member Info for theiceberg

But it's kind of looking for bogeymen under the bed...
If it's not elections next year, then it's local elections the year after or a referendum the following year, then national elections again.
Maybe an imf loan that needs to be repaid, a currency crisis in the dollar..
There is always the possibility of something coming up, but unless there is something concrete like a main opposition leader who's adamant that he will nationalise all mines and he stands a realistic chance of winning then it's just a bogeyman. yes a risk but not really one that needs to be worried over.
If it was a problem now then they wouldn't have so many offers of finance..
To then raise it on the day everyone is expecting ground breaking news but when folks are a bit nervous about timing or it being late, when folks first thing talked about a red day and how they can't see the sp rising today is going to raise a few eyebrows..to say you think this could be such an issue nobody will be seriously interested until later next year.
It does seem strange.

Well newcrest are putting 300-400m in as they buy Ecuador FDN assets and instruments as per the 1bn fundraise. ..so obviously some appetite.

BS

It hasn't but it still trades like an aim stock.! as it's driven by small private investors rather than IIs most of the time.

It's always nice to have a rising sp, but who is effected by the price closing up at 26.5 or down at 25?
There will be a few on T3s, T5, 10s , 30s etc but it's the number 1 rule on aim don't invest to a specific timeframe or expect news in a particular day unless it's regulatory..
It will come and rise as appropriate.

More noise from barrick today about how they are well placed to take advantage of a copper \gold takeovers to balance out their assets...

Not as Silly as someone predicting the sp is going to collapse just before it goes on a massive climb. :)

Most of us are sat here smiling as we patiently wait for news.

I think it more likely a leaky broker, but the only thing known will be a deal possibly the name of the broker on the other side.

You get the feeling the market makers and a select few others have been told a party is on tonight. but us poor retail investors are sat in the waiting room, waiting to hear whether it's been cancelled, postponed or will start imminently.

Imo....might be sharply up.

I think your still missing the most important point though...the market can only price in if it can have a good guess...we can't do that with funding...we can do that with the lead up to the PFS through the things I mentioned such as recovery rates resource size etc...

But the increase from pea to pfs doesn't work like that...it's well documented, the mining cycle for a company through exploration..a dark low point is normally reach 12-6 months prior the pfs, news tends to be low at this point, investors are board, new investors have time to invest..
However as the mineral resources, recovery rates etc are released the finances of the PFS start to become known and as you approach the PFs (the months leading to it) the price responds..it doesn't just jump 50% on the release of the PFS. Unless something exceptional and unexpected is released.
More important than th pfs the DFS than anything is funding....it's the number 1 barrier for any explorer. We also know from previous discussions the aftershock funding on BHP, CGP etc

If we were at 22p without any mre and without funding then I can't see why at 25p that's priced tbh.
As to whether any funding is priced in and whether we know enough about the pfs to accurately say it's sept...I certainly dont...so I'll stick to the official guidance of july\aug\sept...the bulk processing samples are the biggest on the ground still to be done..and i would guess 3 months for that through to ALS results.
're funding personally I can't see how it can be priced...we don't whether 150m or 2bn (conditional) will be announced..we don't know the terms, the equity split, the parties involved. The price (will it be 25p or 40p).
I think your trying to make a case for no share price movement personally, but each to their own..

The PFS is Q3 it doesn't mean sept\oct it means july\aug\sep.
Funding is big news massive.
And BHP is released if we get a bid.
Also solg are due to restart ground work by mid June at the latest...inc regionals..
Huge amounts and the so has risen 150% in six weeks with only the mre official release

Bringing it back to solg related...I think the newcrest shareholders would lynch their BOD if they expose themselves anymore to ecuador.. Just my opinion and others are more than equally valid.
They are over exposed....under delivering. Struggling with grades on project s and don't have much spare cash.
There are many companies out their with far more to gain.

A lot of talk about the 1bn raise from newcrest..I was sceptical about it and have been vocal in the weak position they are in...
The shares started trading again yesterday and ended up down nearly 9%...
To put this into context they have an MCAP of 20bn and raised the bn, but it wiped 1.8bn of the value of the company.(aus $)
The board must be in hiding after that. The idea that an 8% return was somehow good for a mining company is bonkers....if investors wanted an 8% return they would buy grade A corporate bonds. Not an 8% return for a gold mine in the country risk world of ecuador...
I have increasing confidence that newcrest will be brought out, particularly if the share price drops much more..this will have impacts for solg and ggp, not least because it's unlikely cascabel will be seen as a core asset and I am not sure hav. will either.
I don't think it will impact us atm, but worth keeping an eye on it.
're solg yesterday. BHP were down 3-4% so generally a poor day for mining companies and it seems that a few folks though it a good day to reduce risk, particularly given the rises in the solg sp . Nothing wrong with that it helps the rsi and gives support...another crack at 30p could be on the cards next week. With news it will break it easily, imho...

Are having a bad day 10% down and the book looks pretty awful.
Those year end results didn't go well

Lots of understandable confusion wrt CGPs share holding in SOLG, much of it is CGPs own fault.
So I am having to move to the laptop rather than my phone I normally use.

So from CGP we have it that they have sold 11,279,734 to raise $3m by the 29th of April.
SOLG have a holding of 164,341,000 at 8.54% on the 29th of April.

SOLG has 1,923,321,023 so 11,279,734 that CGP have sold is actually 0.59% of the company.

CGP (misleading but that's another matter), have a holding of 15% in ENSA and the shares in SOLG and like to give a combined figure for Cascabel ownership of both of them added together.

In a Nov 2019 RNS CGP said that had 15% + 9.2% SOLG shares to give a total of 22.8%.
In a March 2020 RNS CGP said 15% +8.5% SOLG shares(due to BHP dilution) to give 22.2% holding.
In a April 7th 2020 RNS CGP said 15% + 8.5% SOLG for 22.2% holding
In an April 29th 2020 RNS CGP said 15% + 8.22% SOLG for 22% holding.

To recap.
CGP have said that they sold 0.59% of the company according to the accounts.
Their RNS's say there holding is now 8.22% (although the Maths says it should be just below 8%.
Their holding in Cascabel has apparently only been 0.2% (which makes no sense it should be below this).
Solg have updated their website, but IMO its clear that CGP have not officially told SOLG as this isn't shown.

Clear as mud, but unless anybody wants to dispute my math, Both CGP and SOLG are inaccurate (mainly as CGP is refusing to be clear as to what they are doing). Incompetence or deliberate ? I'd go with incompetence. Not to mention incompetence in only getting 21-22p for the shares when they clearly sold in April.

On the bid at 25p so somebody looking for shares at this price.

Who knows?
The accounts go to the end of dec...the share deals go to the end of April, so its not a fair comparison...you can say what the case was end of 2019....They had no money...They owed more than they had.
What have they spent so far this year? We simply don't know...their legal bill alone was 1-2m last year, but their agm won't be pleasent imo