Member Info for theiceberg

I am really sorry to say it, but you are away with the fairies.
Nobody has 10% on loan. Nobody is seriously (less than 0.1%) shorting this.
There isn't even real reason to hedge anything.
If they were shorting it, they would close the position by now. Nobody would have an open position for the very reason you mention.

WH Ireland's comment this morning.
"It is always satisfying to see an appraisal well successfully cased and completed and this step greatly reduces the operational risks in respect of the well, in our opinion.
We remind investors that our one-stop fair value estimate for Pantheon was 208p. We look forward to the forthcoming well results and continue to endorse the companies appraisal work believing the company's assets to have exceptional potential."

It's like a horse race, we are waiting in anticipation as each fence approaches. Each piece of news is another fence successfully completed.
Only three more to go.
The cleaning up of the fracs.
The initial flow rate.
The rate of decline.

They should all be easy, but we won't know we've won until these have been cleared.

At the end we have the prize of loads of revenue and a high share price. Also very strong confirmation in this RNS that a rapid data room and minority farm in will take place...potentially a quick and massive monetization..

Seahawk.
There are only two choices.
Firstly, it has nothing to do with the technical details of the well, which is what Rab, myself and others believe.
Or
Secondly, the BOD, Broker and Nomad are all signing off on an illegal insider share dealing for a minor amount of money.

There is no, zero evidence of the second option. It would be incredibly, off the scale stupid. If folks believe them all capable of this, I don't know why they invested in the first place.

I think it’s worth considering the timing of events. It could well have been some time ago that a single director said they wanted to sell some options (maybe for a divorce, to buy a new home somewhere etc) the company then canvasses the directors to see if anybody else wants to sell any. (Two more decide they want to cash in some options).
The company then directs the company broker to exercise the options and sell the shares when it’s safe and not considered illegal to do so. At some point the options are sold and eventually the company releases the information via an an RNS.
Now, this might have taken 2 weeks or it might have taken 2 months we don’t know, but the directors would have been told, as per the RNS that this was the last chance to cash in options for awhile.
My guess is that the decision to cash in options was the taken well before any testing, before the second rig was out in place. Possibly just as TD was achieved.
It’s why I am certain it has no bearing on the current testing.

This isn't advice...I am not allowed to give advice on this forum.nobody is.
Having been around for many years investing, I've seen so many horror stories. A good simple rule I've developed is only invest what you can afford to lose. With regards to T20s I hate them. It intrinsically means that folks borrow to invest.If they have to borrow then they can't afford to lose it. For this privilege, you are charged and have a set timeframe imposed on you. Imo a set timeframe takes away a chunk of options to ensure you don't lose money. My back up plan is that if the lateral doesn't quite deliver (maybe because the fracking needs reengineering), then I can hold through the winter and spring and take advantage of further opportunities. If I want to hold for 6 months to ensure I don't lose money, I am fine with that.
Just my opinion. Good luck with whatever you do.

As promised I brought at 103p (twice). You can always count on the market to over react to news. Particularly when it has no bearing to the important news!

For those saying it stinks. I would suggest looking at it more neutrally. They could have sold higher. Particularly with the US exchange they will be very careful about when they sell - the fact that they sold together indicates a blind sell.
It could even be seen as good news. If there were any unreleased bad news then it would be illegal.
So in truth. Everything is as we thought yesterday but we have a nice opportunity to buy some at a reduced price if you want and can afford to.

Understandable, but that was alot of shares for the market to take,, hence the dip.
On the one hand the selling has finished, so the market should respond.
On the other director sells arnt viewed favourably. It's mitigated by no fall in holdings, it's essentially just the directors taking a bonus.
If it drops I might buy today as it will rise nicely by early oct.

I have got some money put aside to buy back into Solg when the placing is finally done, it should be an easy buy from that point for at least a 40-80% gain.
Not selling any xtr though to do it, as xtr is going to rise more than that!

I am not going to go into details as it tends to lead to arguements.
Think of is as owning a piece of art. It can be valued as the price you brought it for, the insurance price, the auction price, the price to a pawnshop, or even the price to a must have collector. If the art work isn't very good, it could just be the cost of the raw materials.
There is always going to be a range - a wide range. My suggestion is to read the valmin code. In reality the lowest price and the highest price are never achieved. Instead it's nearly always somewhere in between. The 5p was the very lowest price.

Thanks steve, tbh I can't be arse to keep arguing it. Folks who twist it, particularly bitter people who don't understand how valuation works.

I am here!
Reading but not got much to add tbh.
Low volume
Poor markets
Waiting for news such as the April June good production and the half year results. Whatever will kill the time until the main Oct Nov news releases jorc drill assays results etc.

I got it wrong on the number of days of fracing...sorry.
Glad they have upped the production.
Joining the top otc index soon and finally Fallon are out (or that is what they seem to be hinting at) if not out very very low.

I'd be amazed if the change of rig took more than 5 days. Even in the dead of winter across an ice road in -40 it's only taken 5 days to get a drill rig out and a frac rig in. Sat pictures from over two weeks ago show the rig moved.
Just imo but we are at least 10 days into the frac, but the frac could take 20 days to do. Testing will be slow and careful and some of the fracs will need to be cleAned up etc.

They are not subjective. They are fans and deltas. I am not saying everything is known but we know what a fan and delta are! You only to look at the mouth of the Nile or Mississippi.
I am not being negative just realistic.

It's basic geology. I've said it before so it's nothing new. The further away you are from the source of the nutrients in the system and so the biologics the more diffused the petrochemical elements will be. Imo you can see it in the 3D they've shown, which is generally more messy. Add in the physics that the light oil will migrate up dip (particularly with the increased pressure).
I am not saying that 88e are doing anything wrong (it's exactly what they should - I said on here after there failed drill they needed 3D rather than 2D and they needed to drill close to the panr licenses. But doesn't change the fact that the quality will quickly diminish on their land.
The knowledge for panr will be fantastic - particularly the SMD as we can access the better quality from the road further north if the drill is successful.

It's as close to our license as it can be. Due to this it's a free drill for us. If they hit an horizon with good oil, it means far more to us than them.It could be that it disappears within 500-1000m or so their side. For us it means confirmation of oil for several kms. Personally I think it will be very tight all the way down there.

For the updates from the AGM.
It sounds like Oct Nov are the money months, probably starting in Sept for the SP rise with FOM.
Copper price should have recovered to 8500-9500 by then.
Very happy with everything tbh.

Rab,
No problems, I agree that we will get significant declines ,but I hope I had that kind of taken into account.
Depending on choke etc, the initial flow rates could be mindblowing, i.e 24 hr lock in rates of 2000-3000. This should decline over the first week of so to a more normal figure and settle after a month or two to the companies figures and thn slowly decline, but still come in very very nicely.

Fwiw, I think they have been very conservative in their calculations - rightly so. With this in mind if the oip figure is substantially larger and everything is better,as they have stated. Then it's difficult to see how some of - the porosity, satuation, recovery, bo figures have not gone up as well.

This is just my personal opinion but I think it will be far better than they externally think. The truth is nobody has done any kind of lengthy test like this in this deposit, so conservative is fine. :)

I've been paying much attention reecenfly, so worrying this has been discovered or discounted.
Imo, for me the metal work used those grades because phase 1 of the pit will concentrate on the highest grades to cover the capex as quickly as possible and bring in a reasonable IRR -20-30%. Phase 2 of the open pit will bring in the lower grades (above .15%l essentially in a cheap way as they just need to cover opex and make profit imo.