Member Info for theiceberg

There isn’t any real story. The times just says that a couple of Americans(who are shorting companies) are shorting it. It goes in to say they have had some success in the past. But there is no reason. If you talk to the people shorting it, they never give a reason.

This is the key thing. Whether it was aften or qpp when the shortest poked there heads up they were very clear as to why, the companies then went on to lie about it.
Even if you take the likes of cine recently, the reasons for shorting it were well known.
With panr nobody - really nobody has given a reason why xcept it’s too good to be true. Nobody has address the issue that this is a production test well- not an exploration well and if the oil isn’t there, why would panr be doing the very thing to expose that.? Why would they have increased test equipment to allow for thousands of barrels? Why, if they knew the oil wasn’t there didn’t they raise money just before hand?

Unfortunately the markets are fragile.

Re why should it should panr issue an rns today? Simply it’s a judgement by the nomad. If they think a disorderly market has been created they have a legal responsibility to request that panr issue an RNS. Whether they think this has been reached is upto them.

Like many, i always keep 50-100% of any oil holding to one side incase it fails and the SP dives, however i only expected the SP to go down to 60p on a failed production well at alkaid. With the winter holes etc to come there is plenty of upside to get out. Because of all this is made sense to buy today at just under 70p, you've got the added upside of likely good flow results near term.
these things happen, the company won't take any legal action, because they will do their talking with the drill imo. They will issue an RNS though (I am guessing at 11-13.00), which will increase the SP back up a bit.

Tbh it happens all the time, with hundreds of companies. I Can almost guarantee that in 2 weeks there will be an article about how great panr is.
The truth is it won’t effect the sp much.
I am more interested in the news that I am sure is coming this week. :)

It’s probably worth bearing in mind that 5m is a tiny amount. It’s half of just Fridays volume on a single exchange.
For me all the negative talk seems to be timed for the opening of the data room. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a low ball bid come in over before the end of the year. I say low ball but it has to be higher than the share has achieved in the last 12 months so we are probably looking at 150-160 region.
I wouldn’t be surprised if any shorts are also from securitised loan conversion shares so limiting exposure. There will be a cost attached which probably puts a limit of say 80p on the downside. Equally they just be open market shorts but nobody really opens a position even a smallish one like this would some hedge of risk.

I've put some pictures on twitter as it simply a useful place to show stuff.
https://mobile.twitter.com/IcebergShares/status/1590769996955021314

The main points are out area of top quality 3D....It includes the 88e licenses below prudhoe...panr clearly saw what was underneath these licenses with what has proven to be a top class 3D model and decided they didn't want them...read into that what you want.
The licenses to the nw of theta clearly gives us the whole of the theta license now. We've probably also increase alkaid and smd by 20% or so. Remember that if alkaid flows it will reclassify the resource, so the license will add barrels to this higher classification.
The market might not care now, but the broker targets will care when they rerate and any farm in calculations will care.

88e didn’t say how much they paid either and are buying off old imagery.

It’s the usual placing merchants plugging 88e recently so I would expect a placing very shortly.

For panr.
There is the very clear expectation now of a farm out for theta and a second one for alkaid.
I think the theta one will be this year imo
As to clearing out the sand. I would suggest that they get a good 24 flow rate by this time next week.

Crude by name, crude by ....

The RNS was about licenses...which was excellent news. I hoped the NW blocks were a continuation up dip of theta...It could be a massive update, most likes of billions of barrels OIP.

The update on the alkaid was simply an update saying the tubing in finally there and they have started clean up...They can't really be negative or positive with that. Regardless, if they tried to spin alkaid it would go against what the company stands for and detract from the very good license information.

Closed up at 1.09 which is about 96p with over 2m volume.
Maybe a rise of 8-10% tomorrow.

The blocks 10miles NW of the talitha blocks are interesting. Hopefully an RNS in the morning.

But as I said , Washington (Biden) has no say in whether panr can drill alkaid, smd etc. I’ll ignore the mail as it tends to be less than accurate. I am also trying to keep politics out of it - as much as possible, but I can’t see any party having any difference to panr. It’s only Alaska that decides , and if the well flows then the economics will determine it’s worth. The more scarce US oil projects are, the potential increase in any potential premium will be (but this is very uncertain) I’ll leave it there unless anybody posts up any regulations and policies I’ve missed. Cheers.

Surely it makes no difference for Panr?

We have the lands, permits, oil pipe next to us, nothing we do really needs anything from Washington.
Indeed, it could be argued that a lack of “other projects” that are dependent on washington policies is beneficial to panr and it’s valuation.

1.3m in total and up in the day. Very different to LSE.
But as I said earlier in the week it’s really building and is generally more positive than LSE.
Some interesting positioning by their market makers as well.

I don’t know whether it’s a hangover from London but otc level 2 is looking very racy to the upside. Never seen as many of the OTC market makers in the action at any one time (normally it’s 3 or 4). Otc volume has also steadily been rising, anywhere from 20% to 30% of London generally but enough to make some difference. It wouldn’t surprise me if it’s 50% by the end of the year.

Today's research note from WH spells it out clearly.
Geologically this is excellent. Operationally, the lessons will be learnt to tweak for future production. Now we have to wait a few weeks for the clean up.
In essence, panr have been caught of guard by how good the quality is. They didn't expect as much particle movement and planned for it to be tighter.

I thought they might need a bit longer. The have always struggled to recover the frac fluids and this good isn't any different. The difference is that they have both the time and resources to do the job properly.....
As we see from the flare, the pressure and fluid flow is outstanding..as soon as they clean it up - unlock the potential this will have so much oil.

Some nice sat updates overnight. Very clear picture of the site, very visible smoke plumes from the flare site, but no strong flare itself. Also on the shortwave a interesting 20m or so container that different to everything else.
What it means? Who knows. But got a feeling they are pumping oil atm

Brom, as adz says this is 100% a flare. It's clear on the fire identification bands of the sat data.
https://mobile.twitter.com/IcebergShares/status/1580215065851985921
It sits as a max signature. What's more it's a big flare which is what you would expect as they clean up the fluids. The fracking will have released a lot of gas (hence pressure).
Imo we will get news Monday next week maybe with the initial 24 hr shut in and flow test.
What we are looking for now is the flare to stop as that indicates the shut in period has started.
Just imo.

It looks like we are starting to find some of the higher copper and gold grades. Still a relatively small amount of holes in such a big target so plenty to come.
Ascot still needs some exploring imo there is tantalising signs of of some really top class porphyry grades.
The jorc will be interesting when it comes out!

Ditto Andy.

Next qtr will be a bit lower as well re gold price.
Maybe the prices are not quite right as we get our cut on the price above 1400? From memory.

Is this the same Pete brailey who claimed back in August last year when the SP was 50p, that Panr was spouting rubbish and was over valued? The same Pete who missed out on the 200% increase because he didn't understand the company, or oil companies in general?

I think you must have the wrong company, the WH Ireland broker SP fair vAlue is 200p and that before the current current drill.
Nice to be reminded though how awful some of the pundits predictions have been.