RE: Lloyds Banking and HSBC preferred as RBC updates scorecard27 Jan 2023 11:48
"Iβm not convinced that the latest rally has the legs"
Everyone has a view....
While rising rates are good news for bank profits, they herald a slowdown in an economy hit by war and runaway prices that squeeze borrowers and could prick pricing bubbles, most notably in property.
"On the one hand, interest rates are going up, which is good and helps banks," said Jerome Legras of Axiom Alternative Investments. "But the economic outlook is uncertain, and risk of credit losses high."
British banks have signalled they expect profits to grow in 2023 despite the precarious economy - NatWest, one of its biggest retail lenders, expects to boost its returns on equity, a key profitability measure.
In the background, trouble looms.
There were 23,885 court judgements against UK businesses owing money in the last quarter of 2022, a year-on-year increase of more than half and a sign of growing distress among small firms, according to business recovery firm Begbies Traynor Group.
The British property market is also wobbling. House prices slid 2.5% in the fourth quarter of last year, the biggest three-month drop since the financial crisis.
Values on commercial real estate, such as offices, also fell, sliding more than 13% on average in 2022, CBRE's Monthly Index showed.
Investor jitters, and attempts to withdraw money, led BlackRock, M&G and others to put some property fund withdrawals on hold. Some 15 billion pounds in assets are in limbo.
Jackie Bowie of risk management firm Chatham Financial said banks faced having to inject more money into big-ticket property investments."
Extracts from article.