We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
1Q24 consensus now published :
https://www.astonmartinlagonda.com/investors/consensus
1st of May and we will see where AM landed.
Its all about perspective : Mercedes recalled 250,000 cars in in Feb 24
https://news.yahoo.com/mercedes-benz-recalls-250-000-110926969.html
Sorry, that looked rubbish here is the link:
https://view.officeapps.live.com/op/view.aspx?src=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.kba.de%2FSharedDocs%2FDownloads%2FDE%2FStatistik%2FFahrzeuge%2FFZ10%2Ffz10_2024_03.xlsx%3F__blob%3DpublicationFile%26v%3D4&wdOrigin=BROWSELINK
Reuters published an article at 1pm GMT today - shortly followed by / coinciding with the spike in share price:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/marathon-partners-pushes-dr-martens-strategic-review-possible-sale-2024-04-02/
Just to clear up some confusion here:
1) The old second lien bond had a 15% split coupon : 8.5% cash interest + 6.5% PiK (payment in kind), meaning each time interest is due 6.5% are added to the outstanding notional and attract 15% interest in the next accrual period(same split as above) - meaning the real interest charge at maturity is materially above the $18.249m quoted below. The new terms appear very much favorable in this light.
2) a revolving credit facility is an "overdraft" facility - a reserve you can dip in if you need to and you can repay any time without losing access to this facility , but otherwise you are just paying a minor fee to the bank making this facility available to you. No outright increase in outstanding debt and also an expression of confidence of lenders in the borrowers ability to service / repay this facility.
As someone else said here on the board - bankers aren't daft.
Overall a strengthened financial position and clarity until 2029. They can now focus again on developing and selling great cars.
Similar messaging from Fitch Ratings:
https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/fitch-assigns-aston-martin-first-time-b-exp-stable-idr-rates-proposed-notes-b-exp-11-03-2024
Here is the link to the consensus:
https://www.astonmartinlagonda.com/investors/consensus
4Q23 adj EBITDA:
AVG 164m
High 192m
Low 146m (that is 90% of avg or consensus)
So the only thing that can be said about the Goldman Sachs quote below is that they are the 1 contributor out of 11 that expect Q4 to be the lower end.
All will be revealed next week...
They are a bit more enthusiastic about it on their community website: https://www.warhammer-community.com/2023/12/18/warhammer-amazon-contracts-signed-the-news-every-warhammer-fan-has-been-waiting-for/
But for me the item I look forward to most will be the release of Warhammer - The Old World in early 2024. This is the re-surrection of their fantasy game and the one that most people now in their 30's and 40's (i.e. the one with some money behind them) have grown up with. This promises to be a great money maker for for the company in 2024 - similar to (or even bigger than) the release of their 10th version of Warhammer 40k in 2023. And it will add nicely to any future licensing deals.
Update on debt repayments
$69.5m of second lien split coupon notes have been redeemed today:
https://tisegroup.com/market/companies/6020
That is a 36% reduction of the second lien notes. $121.6m remain outstanding.
This was mentioned in the 3Q23 results as copy/pasted below:
Balance Sheet
· We remain focused on reducing our leverage and retiring debt and will continue to do so in consideration of a wide range of factors. In line with the announcement in July, our objective is to repay the second lien in full. During November, we will be redeeming 50% of the outstanding second lien notes and beyond that, we intend to undertake a fulsome refinancing exercise during the first half of 2024
Sorry SoS, I'm not C26. I'm a long term holder and have topped up on Monday . Very pleased with today's SP development, but just trying to figure out what the RNS really means (I'm sure we will all find out in due course). Had a quick look at the documentation of the equity raise and it stated that the redemption of the second lien notes was scheduled for early November - which is what triggered my earlier post. UK market up today on the revised GDP data and a number for car markers have announced this week that they are pushing ahead with EV regardless of government targets, so I think the sell off on the back of EV fears last week was overdone and we see a bounce back now - defo fuelled further by the RNS today. But no update on the company itself until end of Oct / early Nov (3Q23 results). So the question remains : what is Stroll up to and what does the RNS really mean?
Might be completely off, but would it be possible that they have exercised their warrant rights as holders of the second lien notes and now buy warrant shares (I believe the strike price for them is way below where we were yesterday with the SP) - fresh money still coming into the company, but it is timed so that the second lien redemption (last equity issue was meant to redeem outstanding debt) will complete after the warrant shares have been exercised? Or in short Yew Tree were the second lien note holders all along, received 15% interest on their bonds and bought themselves the option to see if they can turn the company around. Now that it is clear that they have done so, they swap their bond investment into a larger equity stake at a low price, ready for SP lift off.
The buyback programme appears to be working very well: so far 4m shares bought back costing ca. £6m and the share price rallied from 132p on 14th July to 158p today. Keeping in mind that there are still £44m allocated to the buyback programme there is still way to go! Comparing DOCS to the wider market trends and retail figures this looks like a success story , especially when there are no company news or trading updates etc. Long may this journey continue !
Careful Ghini - currency signage is important.
AML raised £654m in Sep22 and stated that they are looking to redeem up to $200m of outstanding bonds.
They did exactly that:
https://markets.ft.com/data/announce/detail?dockey=1323-15650095-572IDVJAPOQ8I3LVP7RNJBMTMD
and
https://cbonds.com/bonds/832077/
Notes:
1) the second lien has a PIK component , so the original $335m have gone up to $366m at the time of the redemption of ca.$140m
2) the second lien was redeemed at 105%
3) the redemption coincided with the Truss-Kwarteng budget that sent the £ tumbling vs the $, i.e. it used up more of the £ raised to repay the $200m.
4) they also reduced the revolving credit facility by £50m at the same time.
I agree they are not out in the clear yet, but debt reduction is definitely happening.
With regards to the latest capital raise : they have to give minimum 10 days notice and have 60 days to execute (see bond documentation).
Looks like double good news this morning: UK inflation coming down and lifting the stock market wholesale plus Goldman Sachs providing an update and raising AML to a Buy with a target of 412 pence.
AML up 5.5% this morning to 349p as I type.
Lets see what the 1H23 results will be next week, but in my opinion the future looks bright for AML and for long term investors.
Here is the link to the material presented on Capital Markets Day:
https://www.astonmartin.com/-/media/corporate/documents/2023-results/capital-markets-day-2023---presentations.pdf?rev=9336cb61a99146048aff60515a403909
Question: how many shares did AML promise MBAG as part of the second tranche that has now been cancelled? I.e. are the new shares going to Lucid actually the "old" shares that where earmarked for MBAG, and if so, would this be baked into the current price already? Else assuming Lucid is getting completely new shares for free the dilution would warrant a drop from £3.65 to £3.51 (same MCAP, 28m more shares). Thoughts?
Https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/GAMES-WORKSHOP-GROUP-PLC-4001963/company/
Baillie Gifford & Co. 3,276,913 9.96%
Ninety One UK Ltd. 3,087,765 9.38%
Schroder Investment Management Ltd. 1,634,329 4.97%
SFM UK Management LLP 1,630,479 4.95%
MFS International (UK) Ltd. 1,611,343 4.90%
Artemis Investment Management LLP 1,588,680 4.83%
Ruffer LLP 1,555,198 4.73%
FIL Investment Advisors (UK) Ltd. 1,516,682 4.61%
BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Ltd. 1,450,085 4.41%
The Vanguard Group, Inc. 1,210,013 3.68%