RE: Ethiopia risks sliding into another civil war17 Aug 2023 15:48
The crisis in Amhara, though, is particularly dangerous. When it went to war in 2020 against the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (tplf), the party that has run Tigray for three decades, the federal army relied heavily on support from Fano militiamen as well as the Amhara region’s own paramilitary forces. In exchange, Abiy allowed them to seize contested territories from Tigray. Amhara forces were given most of a fertile area officially known as Western Tigray, where they carried out a ferocious campaign of ethnic cleansing. Over the course of the war, Amhara paramilitaries and Fano fighters evicted or killed hundreds of thousands of ethnic Tigrayans. Later, much of Amhara was invaded by Tigrayan forces, who looted hospitals and murdered civilians in revenge. Angry locals accused Abiy’s government of doing too little to protect them.
Since the peace deal signed last November by the tplf and Abiy’s government, Amharas have grown ever more worried about their hold on the disputed territories. According to the agreement, the status of the contested areas is to be resolved “in accordance with the constitution”. Many Amharas believe this means that Abiy plans to hand them back to Tigray. Such fears were heightened in April when the federal government launched a campaign to disarm the regional forces. Protests and gun battles swiftly engulfed Amhara. On April 27th the head of the ruling party in the region was assassinated.
Having prevailed against the tplf, Abiy may feel confident he can make short work of the Fano. The Tigrayans, who dominated the federal government from 1991 until Abiy ousted them in 2018, boasted a highly organised regional militia as well as lots of heavy weaponry. The Fano have neither. “What you see are local loyalties to local leaders who organise their own forces,” notes a foreign researcher.
Nonetheless, unrest in Amhara would be difficult to stanch. Amharas ruled the roost under Ethiopia’s last emperor, Haile Selassie, and under the Derg, the Marxist military regime that deposed him in 1974. They continue to be well represented in the federal bureaucracy, national army and media, though this influence is diminishing. Under Abiy the federal government and security apparatus have become increasingly dominated by Oromos, the country’s largest ethnic group.
Still, Amharas are about 25% of the population, compared with the 6% who are Tigrayan. “Fighting the Amharas is not like fighting the tplf,” notes an Ethiopian analyst. “Amharas are everywhere.” Western diplomats also reckon the Fano may have the backing of neighbouring Eritrea, whose forces fought alongside Abiy’s in Tigray. Since he made peace with the tplf, Abiy is believed to have fallen out with Eritrea’s secretive dictator, Issaias Afwerki. “I don’t think the Fano would act this way without some encouragement from Eritrea,” says one diplomat.
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