Member Info for the_shareminator

Completely agree and today's rise is the beginning of another leg up I hope. Sold all my SHG to buy more here today. Highest purchase price I've ever paid for SLP shares!

Didn't have much of a chance to buy sub 70p this morning. As PS4321 says, this is just the JORC Mineral Resources and Reserves Reports for the Gedabek Open Pit and Gadir Underground Mine. It does not include any underground mining resource potential beneath the Gedabek open pit which is located some 500 metres from the Gadir resource. They are increasing mining excavation capacity, with the addition of two new excavators. I wonder how long it will take the market to react. Shanta didn't rise until the next day following it's latest update.

As of today resources and reserves estimates classified according to the JORC Code have now been prepared for all the Company's producing mines.

"The completion of this work provides a strong understanding of the combined production profile of all operating mines, that gives a mine life until end 2024 from the current reserves. Importantly, the resources adjacent to these mineral reserves provide the opportunity to be further upgraded for future production. Additionally, exceptional exploration potential exists at not only the Gedabek Contract Area, but also at the Ordubad and Gosha Contract Areas, which will be evaluated in due course to increase the Group resources with the aim of expanding current mines and constructing new mines."

PhatStyle4321 I agree, if ever there was an opportunity to benefit from such a reveal, now is that time. Just to add more than 1.2 million ounces of resources already categorized to JORC standard, most of which will be proven up as reserves in the coming years.

The aim of the survey is to define new drill targets and identify new mineable deposits which may provide additional producing mines at Gedabek. Anglo Asian's Group Director of Geology and Mining, Stephen Westhead commented, " The survey is intended to identify new drill targets to add additional resources and reserves to the current mine schedule and to identify potential new standalone mines, similar to our Ugur mine, which we brought into production within 12 months of first discovery."

The survey was conducted by Geotech Limited ("Geotech"), one of the leading global airborne geophysical surveying companies who have previously worked with TSX listed Palamina and Conquest Resources. Both small-caps are explorers and have had success delineating resources and new deposits but are otherwise strapped for cash. Anglo Asian on the other hand are generating substantial cash-flow from their 80,000+ GEO operation and are expecting to spend $4.5m on exploration this year alone!

I mentioned Palamina above. Having completed their 3,000 line-km survey in October 2018 they set about mapping and outlining structures with the potential to host gold mineralisation. Anglo Asian have now mapped the entire 300 sq-km Gedabek contract area in Azerbaijan with roughly 4500 linear km covered. Going back to Palamina, two months after the update detailing the results of their airborne survey they released channel sampling results from their flagship Coasa Gold project with highlights including 123 g/t Au over 1.0m, 26.3 g/t Au over 1.7m, 18.3 g/t Au over 1.7m, 17.4 g/t Au over 1.4m and 13.5 g/t over 2.0m. I think it's pretty clear the airborne survey encouraged Palamina to continue exploring the Veta Zone at the Coasa Gold project and more specifically which areas should be priority targets. They have been vindicated choosing that course of action.

https://www.palamina.com/news/2018/12/11/palamina-channel-sampling-results-underpin-extensive-surface-gold-mineralization-at-the-coasa-gold-project

Thinking back to September when the company updated markets about their intention to conduct an airborne survey, Mr Westhead said they were already aware of "many gold and copper mineral occurrences at Gedabek" but that this survey would provide information concerning "the mineralisation trends at depth". I've read a fair bit about the depths the Z-Axis Tipper Electromagnetic system can penetrate and 300-600m is quoted a number of times including on the GeoTech website. Undoubtedly new targets will be identified but more importantly perhaps is the company will have greater confidence in prioritising exploration work especially with the geophysical "signatures" of known deposits such as Ugur at hand.

£1+ coming very soon :)

Jumped in yesterday having read the details here concerning City Financial. Distressed seller, need not say more. Clearly a good buying opportunity. Agree with your assessment of the macro picture bonker99, CEY may have finally turned, AAZ already has

Quite agree but I have a feeling it will take a number of years to properly rerate and it may well come down to rising costs in South Africa forcing closure of some of the largest but still very much marginal operations. In the short term we have rhodium and to a lesser extent now palladium making gains. The quarterly basket gains for palladium have yet to be felt even though it appears to have topped out for now at least but rhodium is on a tear, up above $3000!

Very quiet here in the lead up to FY results. Gold up to $1294/oz this morning in what may be the beginning of a new leg higher and another attempt to break through $1349/oz coming. Lot's of potential catalysts around, EURO debt, BREXIT, 5 of the 6 top banks easing or loosening policy, further US rate rises on hold, US China trade war unresolved and the general economic slowdown which can not be prevented. etc

Yesterday the European Central Bank decided to cut 2019 growth and inflation forecasts and expectations for the same through 2021. This will likely happen again the quarter after BREXIT, assuming the UK leaves with no deal at the end of the month. There is undoubtedly a building of fear coupled with a refusal from the political elite to change the broken system and so the rot continues to spread.

My homework this month is reading back to the events in 2011 and what the causes were that led to the Euro crisis that sent gold up to $1900. I think we are sleepwalking into the next crisis, the question is when will the dominoes start falling.

Also you have a tendency to misquote in order to further your argument. Case in point.

You just wrote "Even when someone posted yesterday what looked like they thought was a list of institutional investors (I wasn't sure though as there was no narrative) and I offered to explain to them that it wasn't you went on the attack again with you're not educating anyone here."

When in actual fact we both know I was referring to AAZ's net cash position, something which has been clarified but here is what I said again "And you're not educating anybody here so don't claim to be. I've listed previously exactly what AAZ's net cash position is so you're only making yourself look foolish."

Let's be clear, your attitude towards myself and other posters is the reason people either won't respond to you or will call you out for what you are trying to do. You goaded and then insulted one poster early on suggesting noone should place much reliance on their predictions based on what was ultimately a good point. There had been a recent director buy. The poster in question was making the point that the share price at the time which was lower than the directors purchase price was a good entry level. Of course you corrected them with the actual price and that should have been the end of it, but your manner was condescending and your aim to discredit this poster by suggesting others should not listen to them was uncalled for. Maybe you were raised in this way and know no better, it's worth explaining this to you.

I'm also going to correct you about your so called long term value stance. If you came out and said you didn't see any value long term you would be immediately dismissed as a fool because the fundamentals are so blindingly obvious. It's pretty common to see derampers and their ilk take the 'neutral' and 'balanced' tone in order to seem sensible and I don't doubt there are concerns but the manner in which you've gone about this detracts from the positive growth story that Anglo Asian are moving through.

Indeed, less than one month to go now. Looking forward to FY results

Your posting style is so obvious, who are you trying to convince? Pick up on one discrepancy and focus your attention on that in order to discredit the entire post whilst ignoring everything else being said. So let me reword the sentence for your benefit as clearly you're the only one here who didn't understand the gist of the point.

He (TaffyJack) says "Messaging is very much steady/stable/sustainable". Q4 was "another excellent quarter" according to the CEO which saw the company achieve full year production at the upper limit of its guidance of 84,000 GEO, move into a net cash position, maiden Interim dividend paid. Again, nothing downbeat about the company forecasting record 2019 production, paying another $3.4m dividend and continuing to invest in exploration and development.

Nobody really believes you are here to give "a balanced view" and you've illustrated that perfectly by littering the board with negative posts up until yesterday. Talk of lacklustre updates and expectations being too high are complete twaddle. This is a quality gold producer, with AISC less than $600/oz incl Govt of Azerbaijan's share, reducing CAPEX this year, paying a 6-7 dividend yield out of free cash-flow.

You haven't been proven right.

The whole sector has fallen in response to gold topping out at $1348. The share price barely moved in the day preceding, the day of the update and the day after. It was only when precious metals tumbled that the share price fell. Of course you fail to mention AAZ is the strongest performing gold producer today which goes to show there are plenty of buyers in the wings and all this on relatively low volumes.

And you're not educating anybody here so don't claim to be. I've listed previously exactly what AAZ's net cash position is so you're only making yourself look foolish.

Also weird you've change your overwhelmingly negative stance to one of a 'reasoned approach'. I suspect you've finally bought some at your preferred price, bravo! But you're not fooling anyone. I've seen it many times on these boards, new posters changing their posting style when the trades suit them. You can spin it anyway you like, but it's anything but balanced and your regular mocking of holders is the very definition of trolling. Troll.

Glad others are also aware of the troll posting under the new alias TaffyJack here to "consider both the positives and negatives". Won't see much in the way of positives though.. all in the name of SWOT analysis apparently.

He says "Messaging is very much steady/stable/sustainable". Q4 was "another excellent quarter" according to the CEO which saw the company achieve full year production at the upper limit of its guidance of 84,000 GEO, all debt cleared, maiden Interim dividend paid. Again, nothing downbeat about the company forecasting record 2019 production, paying another $3.4m dividend and continuing to invest in exploration and development.

Haven't seen any institutional investors buying across the London listed gold sector recently, strange that... clearly then nothing to do with the quality of this producer.

The entire 300 square kilometre Gedabek area has been analysed for months now but it's only expected to reveal new drill targets. I'm not expecting anything groundbreaking nor is the market. That isn't to say the process was for nothing as clearly it's the first step towards delineating new mineable deposits. Very unusual for a smallcap producer to bring a new mine into production less than 12 months after first discovery, something this company achieved with Ugur and may well repeat following the results of the Heli survey.

The Ethiopian Government announced yesterday that the Federal Council of Ministers had approved an extra budget allocation for this 2018-2019 budget year to cover, inter alia, this budget period's costs of the construction of roads and electricity connection for the Tulu Kapi Gold Project.

That sounds like the market sensitive information hence the update first thing this morning.

Good to hear your thoughts, appreciate you running the dividend schedule through your model.

Interesting to note Bank of America Merrill Lynch lifted its forecast for palladium today, expecting it to hit $2,000 this year whilst they forecast platinum prices to average $883 for the same period.

ragnar - thank you for detailing your analysis, much appreciated! I agree having read the updated dividend policy now, the Board's approach will remain cautious. They refer to managing the mineral rights in a "defensive manner", make reference to the need for a cash buffer in the event of a large fall in metal prices or currency fluctuations in a short period and note local exchange control restrictions (although I am not aware how strict these are in reality). Nevertheless it helps build a picture of a very conservative leaning but ultimately sustainable approach.

Interesting points about the 2014 dividend policy. Comparing output should we not also take into consideration the huge increase in the basket price? I agree the buffer will have increased. As you stated production has near doubled since 2014 and the company suggest receipt of payment can be delayed by as much as 4 months, however $20m seems like an excessively high sum to retain in the event of problems. In the HY report it makes reference to the low platinum price (which has caused us problems in the past) but it is less of a concern these days with the company also reporting the basket price rose to $1201/oz from $1057/oz a year earlier thanks to gains in rhodium in palladium. We have only just recorded an official quarterly cash position of or above this amount following on from the first dividend payment so perhaps the buffer is as high as you say. At any rate if margins rise or remain stable in the long term, the company dividend looks to be wholly inadequate at present compared to the free cash being thrown off and I was disappointed they didn't address this with a maiden interim dividend.

Going by their conservative approach they might decide a 20% increase to the annual dividend is sufficient come August and possibly the first interim dividend next spring.

To jump from $1.3m dividend payment last year up to $37m requires a huge jump in each of the following years (which we both agree the company is capable of) but I'm reluctant to believe will happen. Given the lack of formulaic approach as you pointed out the following calculations are not likely to hold much merit but it's my expectation of events here. I'm assuming a HY dividend introduced next year with 50% increases to both HY and FY.
2018 FY dividend of $1.3m
2019 FY dividend of $2m
2020 HY dividend of $2m
2020 FY dividend of $3m
2021 HY dividend of $3m
2021 FY dividend of $4.5m

$14.5m worth of dividend payouts. I don't know if this is what the Board would class as 'sustainable' but it looks to me as a safe initiative returning value to shareholders and adding cash to reserves with further acquisitions in mind.

The defendant didn't appear. Clearly she knew but thought better of defending herself in court.
http://www.bailii.org/ew/cases/EWHC/QB/2019/423.html

Seems bizarre a person who has been declared bankrupt still has possession of properties both in London and clearly other places where she is in hiding. Obviously filthy rich and nothing better to do with her time.

Actually the points of discussion changed a number of times and I was sure to correct you on those but the overarching theme has been the irrelevance of the Hardman's report.

I think most here can read between the lines and see your attempts to drive the narrative for what they are.