Member Info for the_shareminator

I agree with your views and like you moved away from the overpriced world of warhammer, especially once the local (40 min commute) shop closed its gaming room upstairs. Prices of LOTR blisters doubled from £4 for 3 metal miniatures and the plastic range also was hiked every couple of months. It was fantastic while it lasted but now they cater for an elite gamer. If they continue down this path it won't be a gaming company but rather a model supplier for painters and enthusiasts to add to other, more affordable ranges. http://www.iii.co.uk/news-opinion/richard-beddard/games-workshop-agm%3A-relentless-profit-machine

http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/266755/nine-cyclical-shares-potential-outperform

Tempted to go against the market at this level. Seems to be leveling out, just needs a turnaround in buyer sentiment. Oil almost back to the low it reached in January.

No reason why this is bottom for OMI in my view, loss making into early 2016 at current levels. The gold price as ever is the only reason to consider a buy. If it trends higher to $1200/oz I'd look to buy

http://masterinvestor.co.uk/latest/attractive-entry-level-for-specialist-litigation-fund-juridica-investments/ Not one for me BD but perhaps you will find some comfort in this article. Main concern here would be depleting cash position and rate of depletion. How can JIL build equity value when cash is being consumed at such a rate?

The importance of IMPACT analysis is that it doesn’t focus on where we are. It focuses on where we’re going. Central banks cannot tolerate high real interest rates, because they burden consumption and investment. The Federal Reserve cannot tolerate a strong dollar because it imports deflation (in the form of lower import prices) from around the world. Physical markets are skewed toward excess demand because China, Russia, Iran and other countries continue to demand gold to diversify reserves away from dollars while output is flat and official sales by the West have ceased. All three factors -- real rates, the strong dollar and official sales -- are pointing toward a reversal of recent trends and momentum toward conditions that favor higher gold prices. Gold can move in either direction, but it is much more likely to move up than down given current conditions.

The best measure of dollar strength (other than gold itself) is the Price-Adjusted Broad Dollar Index maintained by the Federal Reserve Board. The all-time low for this dollar index was 80.5001 in July 2011, the time of which corresponds exactly with the all-time high dollar price for gold. Conversely, that index today reads 95.595. That’s the highest reading in over six years. Not surprisingly, just as the dollar is at a six-year high, gold is near a six-year low. Again, the correlation is not perfect, but it is surprisingly robust. Wall Street analysts have tended to select the wrong dollar indexes in doing their analysis. The Wall Street indexes are heavily weighted toward the euro and yen, whereas the Fed’s index looks at emerging markets including China. At Currency Wars Alert, we’ve used the Fed index all along. A glance at Page 253 of my book The Death of Money confirms that we’ve always used the right index tool. The third factor is central bank intervention. Here the case is straightforward: a simple matter of supply and demand. Mining output has been remarkably constant over recent decades: about 2,000 tons per year. Gold has very few industrial uses. I consider jewelry to be “wearable wealth,” so I do not distinguish between jewelry demand and bullion demand — both are forms of wealth preservation. So with constant output and variable demand for gold as a store of wealth, it has been relatively easy for central banks to manipulate the price of gold by dumping gold reserves on the physical market at critical junctures. There have been three major waves of central bank manipulation in the physical market. The first was the London Gold Pool of the 1960s, which collapsed in 1968. The second was a covert effort by the U.S. and IMF to dump 1,700 tons of gold on the market from 1975-79 to disguise the real impact of inflation. This collapsed in 1980 when both inflation and the price of gold spun out of control. The third effort was the Washington-inspired “Central Bank Gold Agreement” (CBGA), which formed a seller’s cartel of 11 national central banks (not including the U.S.). The CBGA was created in 1999 and renewed in 2004 and 2009. The largest seller under CBGA was Switzerland. This agreement has now failed, and there have been no sales by any of the signatories since 2010. Since then, central banks have moved from being net sellers to net buyers for the first time in decades. With few official sellers and many official and nonofficial buyers, gold demand now exceeds gold supply from mines, putting pressure on scrap gold and other weak hands to fill the gap.

Real interest rates are one of the best predictors of the nominal dollar price of gold. When real interest rates are low (or negative), that gives gold a boost. When real interest rates are high, that puts downward pressure on gold. The correlation is not perfect, but it’s much stronger than other correlations such as the stock market or economic growth. The reason for the correlation is easy to understand. Gold has no yield. Gold’s valuation has to compete with other asset classes such as stocks and bonds that do have yields. When yields on competing asset classes are higher, the gold price tends to suffer, and vice versa. What matters for this purpose is not the nominal rate of interest but the real rate. Real interest rates are defined as the nominal interest rate minus inflation. For example, if the nominal interest rate is 5%, but inflation is 3%, then the real rate is only 2% (5% minus 3%). That sounds simple enough, but there are complications. In selecting nominal interest rates, you have to specify a maturity. Rates on 2-year Treasury notes are much lower than rates on 10-year Treasury notes. We use the 10-year note rate for our analyses because it’s a good proxy for mortgage rates and corporate bond rates, which represent the cost of financing long-term investments in housing and fixed assets by individuals and corporations. It makes more sense to think about gold as a long-term core holding than as a short-term trading instrument. The other complication arises when the rate of inflation is greater than the nominal rate of interest. In that case, the real rate is negative. This could happen when the 10-year note rate is 1% and inflation is 2%. In that case, the real rate is negative 1% (1% minus 2%). That is the ideal environment for gold. A zero yield on gold is actually greater than the negative real yield on notes. Wall Street analysts keep talking about how low interest rates are. It’s true that nominal rates are low, but real rates are quite high by historic standards. For the past several years, 10-year nominal rates have mostly been over 2%, but inflation has been about 1%, sometimes lower. This means that the real rate on 10-year notes has been over 1%. Compare this to the situation in 1980 (when gold hit a new high of $800 per ounce). Back then, Treasury bonds yielded 13%, but inflation was 15%, so the real rate was negative 2%. Don’t be misled by low nominal interest rates. Focus on the real rates instead and you’ll have better insight into the future price of gold. The second factor is dollar strength. There the correlation is even more striking. If you consider gold to be a form of money or currency (which we do), then it’s easy to see that a strong dollar signals a weak dollar price of gold, and a weak dollar signals a strong dollar price of gold.

Is gold off the bottom? No one knows for sure. If the Fed raises interest rates on Thursday (which we do not expect), the effect will be highly deflationary and gold prices could move lower, at least temporarily. Conversely, if the Fed doesn’t raise rates and offers some reason to believe it won’t raise them for the foreseeable future (so-called “forward guidance”), then gold prices could rally in anticipation of inflation. It’s unfortunate that markets are now reduced to reading Janet Yellen’s mind. But that’s what happens after seven years of market intervention and central planning by the Federal Reserve. Using my IMPACT system, which combines complex dynamic systems analysis with unique access to relevant information, we’re able to draw some useful inferences about the future path of gold prices. Our estimate is that gold has now found a bottom and is poised to move steadily upward from current levels. For those who are fully allocated in physical gold (I recommend about 10% of investible assets), there’s nothing more to do on that front. You can just sit tight and enjoy the ride. For those who do not have the recommended allocation to physical gold, this is an attractive entry point and a chance to top up your allocation at the best prices in six years. It’s certainly been a long and volatile ride for gold investors. Starting from a low of about $250 per ounce in mid-1999, gold staged a spectacular rally of over 600% to about $1,900 per ounce by August 2011. Unfortunately, that rally looked increasingly unstable toward the end. Gold was about $1,400 per ounce as late as January 2011. Almost $500 per ounce of the overall rally occurred in just the last seven months before the peak. That kind of hyperbolic growth is almost always nonsustainable. Sure enough, gold fell sharply from that peak to below $1,100 per ounce by July 2015. The 15-year chart still shows a gain of about 350%, but the four-year chart shows a loss of over 40%. Those who invested during the 2011 rally are underwater, and many have given up on gold in disgust. For longtime observers of gold markets, sentiment is the worst they’ve ever seen. At Currency Wars Alert, we look behind the charts and sentiment and try to discern the systemic dynamics driving the price. Once those dynamics are specified, forecasting becomes much more reliable. We’ve identified three factors that well explain the gold price dynamics. These three factors are real interest rates, dollar strength and central bank intervention. Looking at the current status and likely path of these factors is the best guide to the future price of gold.

No worries :) Fed citing weakness may be the trigger for a resurging gold price. US inflation predictions now suggest if won't reach 2% until 2018. Back to $1200/oz soon if this news is confirmed in the coming days.

Positive news for Malaysian stock markets and cuts to taxes on manufacturers. http://www.bbc.com/news/business-34241774

So back in May I suggested MBO would turn significantly more than £180k cash (profit in H114) and a group loss of £30k during the second half of 2014 Results came in with group profit of £270k in the final 6 months The headline operating profit was £379k up from 41k in the previous 6 months They spent over £300k on property last year so will likely return higher operating margins and save on rental costs Liquid assets were up £596,146 in the year to date and factor in the property it's almost £900k More than 1,000 new agent banking points have been introduced by one of the Group's banking partner recently are expected to contribute positively to the performance of the Group in 2015

Nice write up, good to see some coverage and a trickle of buys last week. Future success hanging on increasing contract wins. Everything else is in place :)

I can't see how long term a US interest rate rise will help boost economic growth across the world. The Dollar strength is already causing turmoil across many developing markets. China's recent move away from a Dollar-peg should support gold strengthening. http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/comex-hong-kong-sees-biggest-daily-gold.html

Here in HK everyone is worrying about the markets but unlike when Western markets fall people here seem happy to continue eating out, spending on unnecessary items and the like. I don't know about the elite but generally speaking the middle class here enjoy a high standard of living because wages support all major living costs. Rents are not ridiculous etc. Demand for gold jewellery with prices depressed are more attractive now. The recent crash has affected millions here and across the border in mainland China (Shenzhen is a financial melting pot). I'm a buyer at this level and recommend also CNR which is expecting a buy out. Likely to fetch anywhere between 80p - 120p in my opinion

Probably for the best. Edison have released a note today with forecast profits down 10% next year but that to me looks optimistic given the update last month. Only worth a look-in if the US suspend rates for the near future... cue dollar drop and capital inflows back into Russia.

Very upbeat six month performance, not much to complain about except the order pipeline. Hopefully we will be drip-fed some more contract wins over the next couple of months to secure this impressive growth and ensure the trend continues. MBO results coming next.

SPMG - thanks for sharing your reasoning, meant to reply last month but lost track of time. Are you expecting any additional recurring revenue? I think your working is solid but you may have missed some important additions. In March just before Final Results were released Siemens made an order in excess of £1.5m This followed the agreement entered into during 2014 which was already factored into the pipeline estimates I believe. The most recent addition probably was not included in the Final Results project pipeline. Maybe I'm wrong on that... Smaller contracts of lets says less than £0.6m are a possibility but I would be more optimistic of a return customer increasing their order size or re-awarding contracts otherwise it is likely we would have seen an announcement. At the last count more than 50% of the order book was due for delivery in 2015 so it is vital we hear some progress towards maintaining the pipeline size or best case seeing it grow.

Factoring in the depreciating value of the Ringgit MBO will still be booking operating profits of £300-400k in the first half of 2015. This would be from trade accounted in the first 6 months only. Trade receivables in comparison to payables at the end of the last period looked very healthy and should help reduce the net debt position faster than operating profits are booked, depending on trade backlog (normally better at the Interim period). Malaysian Ringgit has only recently dropped to 1 MYR : 0.15 GBP which will affect second half exchange ratios but all debt is held in MYR anyway. If MBO completed a placing in GBP at the top of the market they'd put themselves in a very secure position.. not that they need to when they're turning £50m+ per annum. Ideal market to be exposed to with the USD heading higher, guarantees competitive pricing and foreign investor / acquisition potential

Performing better again after a brief blip, any thoughts on ZMNO jolly?