Member Info for the_shareminator

Good afternoon, 16koz would be appropriate I believe with cash costs of let's say $420. Due to the APR being lower than the reported PGM basket price, rising metal prices will push our actual margins up faster. Hence at $1000/oz the actual margin is 47.5% and at $1100 it's 52%. Production of 16koz, with the all important smelter costs at 20% that's about $1.3m difference in EBITDA. Quarterly EBITDA calculations are as follows PGM basket price * R/S multiple = APR APR - cash cost = x (which is similar to the gross cash margin as a percentage of APR) x * production = SDO EBITDA LIKELY RESULT for PGM Basket @ $1000/oz (47.5% margin) $1000/oz * 0.8 = $800/oz APR $800/oz - $420/oz = $380/oz (x) $380/oz * 16,000/oz = $6,080,000 SDO EBITDA LIKELY RESULT for PGM Basket @ $1100/oz (52% margin) $1100/oz * 0.8 = $880/oz APR $880/oz - $420/oz = $460/oz (x) $460/oz * 16,000/oz = $7,360,000 SDO EBITDA

Just $205 now separating Pt and Pd, the former being dragged down. Still todays basket price is around $843. For the month $867, better than October still. Don't expect much upwards movement until closer to results month. We are doing better than most. Check out LMI's drop past week or so

Buying into this now is madness. USD index is surging and it will be a while yet before any broken promises. Rate hike coming in the next month, European instability coming in the Christmas and Spring 2017 with elections and referendums likely to cause further shocks. This is going lower short term. Eyes on gold falling below $1180 and RRS testing 5400

(Gross Cash margin * Basket Price) * Production - capital costs = x x is 20% higher than EBITDA as it's before group costs WORST CASE (36% * $840/oz * 16,000/oz) - $600k CAPEX = $4,238,400 * 0.8333 = $3,531,859 SDO EBITDA LIKELY RESULT (40% * $860 * 16,500/oz) - $400k CAPEX = $5,276,000 * 0.8333 = $4,396,491 SDO EBITDA BEST CASE (44% * $880/oz * 17,000/oz) - $200k CAPEX = $6,382,400 * 0.8333 = $5,318,454 EBITDA Cross-check this method with the other for estimating EBITDA and gross cash margin. We need to work out the actual price received (APR) but we have no revenue figures. Fortunately we know APR comes in approximately 20-24% lower than the pgm basket price due to refining / smelting (R/S) PGM basket price * R/S multiple = APR APR x production = Revenue APR - cash cost = x (which is similar to the gross cash margin as a percentage of APR) x * production = SDO EBITDA WORST CASE $840/oz * 0.76 = $638/oz APR $638/oz * 16,000/oz = $10.21m Revenue $638/oz - $430/oz = $208/oz (x) $208/oz * 16,000/oz = $3,328,000 SDO EBITDA LIKELY RESULT $860/oz * 0.78 = $671/oz APR $671/oz * 16,500/oz = $11.1m Revenue $671/oz - $420/oz = $251/oz (x) $251/oz * 16,500/oz = $4,141,500 SDO EBITDA BEST CASE $880/oz * 0.80 = $704/oz APR $704/oz * 17,000/oz = $12m Revenue $704/oz - $410/oz = $294/oz (x) $294/oz * 17,000/oz = $4,998,000 SDO EBITDA There is a marginal difference of between 5-6% in SDO EBITDA depending on which method you use. It's not 100% accurate but the two formulas help me analyse possible outcomes. The last set of quarterly results were a surprise to all because of the output and gross margin achieved.

Wuffle - good posts, the split is important for weighing up basket price movements and quarterly performance. Platinum like you say is following gold higher. It wouldn't surprise me if US rates are hiked to see Platinum close the gap with gold. Historically platinum trades much closer to gold and with reported annual supply deficits over the past few years it's only a matter of time before this begins to be reflected in forward pricing. tomposh - tracking the PGM basket price using the split across October, the daily average was $847/oz and so far this month it is $868/oz. I used this formula to check the previous quarters PGM basket price which came to $929, not far off the reported figure. There are other factors to consider such as ZAR and USD movements during the quarter ofcourse. A stronger USD helps our cash costs but has a negative impact on cash / assets held. The ZAR had been strengthening since the beginning of the quarter but has fallen back a little since the election results. If cash costs come in higher this quarter, the $11m cash equivalent held on the balance sheet will be worth more in USD terms. Output was the highest in the company's record so I would be surprised if they managed to pass that in the following quarter. That being said the reason for a 6% q-o-q increase was down to higher recovery efficiencies. The PGM feed tons and grades were actually lower than the previous quarter " due to difficulties experienced with the hydro-mining at Lannex and lower plant feed stability at Mooinooi, both of which have subsequently been resolved". Potential for higher output. I agree the basket price isn't helpful when forecasting group profits but it is a good gauge as to whether cash generation will be higher or lower than the previous quarter. There are other ways of checking quarterly performance for example (Gross Cash margin * Basket Price) * Production - capital costs = x x is 20% higher than EBITDA as it's before group costs The gross cash margin was 24% up quarter on quarter but still this equation works like a treat. It's not possible to know where the gross cash margin will fall but you can move the figure around 36-46% to get an idea of potential EBITDA. Take into account the higher the PGM basket price the higher the cash margin will be. Production and capital are also guesswork so best case / worst case can be helpful. You can cross-check this method with another for estimating EBITDA and gross cash margin. Revenue / production = "actual price received" (APR) ie. after refinancing / smelting APR - cash cost = x (which is similar to the gross cash margin as a percentage of APR) x * production = SDO EBITDA Last quarter results ($000) 12,965 / 17,257 oz = $751/oz (APR) $751 - $408 = 343/oz (x) 343 x 17,257 = $5,924,144

PGM basket rising Platinum at 940.55 (+0.63%) Palladium at 714 (+1.17%) Gold at 1,227.45 (+0.24%) Platinum to Palladium price is the closest it's been in a while I think.

First time apology is always the hardest. It's called a calculator, really basic maths.. Let's hope they won't pair us together in the same ward, after all you would be pretty crazy to repost a completely pointless post, but you do that a lot here.

Nice movement here today up from 34.5 to 38 on the ask

Took a few minutes to answer some points on a different board, more appropriate here. "...revised costs of project echo" Project Echo costs are projected to be less than $1m per quarter. Current capex is less than a quarter of this. Cash generation is many multiples of all our capital expenditure forecasts however, it was $5.6m last quarter alone, enough money to take care of an entire years worth of projected capital cost! Any revision I'm sure will be easily covered and then some. "...wage negotiations" Wage negotiations seem to be going pretty well given reports and updates from the leading 3 operators in the country and should offer stability to producers operating in South Africa. The PGM basket price is looking solid, despite platinum lagging and our margins are high which will continue through the next couple of years ensuring we remain profitable and competitive. In other words at current prices the company are generating plenty of cash to take care of Project Echo and build cash reserves. "...decline in production" Last two quarterly updates, production increased setting a new quarterly record. A decline to 15k per quarter for the remaining 3 quarters wold yield annual production of some 62k. Certainly no indications of a steep decline coming. "the water shortages in the area" South Africa have long suffered from water shortages, the government has been taking measures for decades. They invested heavily in GM drought tolerant crops and rely on imports to supplement the deficit. They enforce water usage restrictions regularly in urban areas. I very much doubt the big platinum trio will be hit with the effects of water shortages but if any of them are the price of platinum will rally, strengthening the investment case here. SLP is a small operation processing chrome tailings dumps, far from the places recently mentioned at risk of severe drought so should encounter no problems. Steelpoort is 5km away from our operations. The closest three dams are - one adjacent to the Kruger National Park which is running low compared to 2015 levels - the De Hoop dam which still has very high levels, albeit a little lower than 2015 and - the Grootdraai dam, Mpumalanga which is seeing a rise in 2016 water levels in fact. I had not bothered to previously check but it seems the De Hoop dam is just 30km away, the closest man-made body of water and experiencing high levels of water supply. This is a recent article which details issues being experienced elsewhere. http://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/gauteng-stop-wasting-water-20161106-2

Your 1p dividend is worth nada! I can't believe you keep bringing it up when this has fallen more than 30% since the interims! Remind me how much SLP rose after you caused a fuss and sold, 25% lol. 1-2% divi and nursing a 30% loss VS 25% gain, keep telling yourself you are right. Project Echo costs are projected to be less than $1m per quarter. Cash generation is multiples of this, it was $5.6m last quarter alone, enough money to take care of an entire years worth of projected capital cost. Any revision I'm sure will be easily covered and then some. Wage negotiations seem to be going pretty well given reports and updates from the leading 3 operators in the country. The PGM basket price is looking solid, platinum lagging. But right now at current prices the company are generating plenty. Last two quarterly updates, production increased setting a new quarterly record. A decline to 15k per quarter for the remaining 3 quarters wold yield annual production of some 62k. Certainly no indications of a steep decline coming. Water shortages okay, grasping at straws. South Africa have long suffered from water shortages, the government has been taking measures for decades. They invested heavily in GM drought tolerant crops and rely on imports to supplement the deficit. They enforce water usage restrictions regularly in urban areas. I very much doubt the big platinum trio will be hit with the effects of water shortages but if any of them are the price of platinum will rally. In any case SLP is a small operation processing chrome tailings dumps, far from the places recently mentioned at risk. Steelpoort is 5km away from our operations. The closest three dams are one adjacent to the Kruger National Park which is running low compared to 2015 levels but the De Hoop dam still has very high levels, albeit a little lower than 2015 and the Grootdraai dam, Mpumalanga is seeing a rise in 2016 water levels in fact. I had not bothered to previously check but it seems the area surrounding is not completely cut off. In fact the De Hoop dam is just 30km away. http://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/gauteng-stop-wasting-water-20161106-2

Deary me "bullish on gold all the way down from 1350"? ... you like making things up. You gave back whatever you say you did. But lack of research and lack of judgement saw you then miss out on the rise in the days following your sale from 7.6 to 9.75, a 25% trade if you bothered to track the bid and to top it off you've been buying CNKS which had fallen 35% at one point following those terrible Interim results. "meanwhile ... tracking someone on another share because you are offended that someone sold a share that you cuddle in bed at night .... or 'trolling' as it is more widely known ....... is very creepy, immature and rather sociopathic in my opinion." You just described yourself, nice one.

Hi kenj, Daisan - thank you for your replies. Interesting reading as ever, appreciate the first hand accounts you're able to share. Certainly Fryers vote was one of a few on that board by the sounds of it. Is there an element of foul play about this, a financial incentive for example to turn the company on it's head? It sounds to me like the board where not aware how delicate relations were nor did they find a suitable replacement. But there are probably missing pieces to this puzzle which may never see the light of day. Did Fryer have anything to do with the events leading up to workers downing tools and so on. The series of events following could have theoretically been orchestrated but there is no way they could possibly have forseen events transpiring as they did, right? To me it sounds like Directors in over their head with little expertise in how to handle delicate situations. Can you be specific, when you say "Things did not improve and an EGM was called to sack the entire 3 man board" what didn't improve? It does sound strange the BoD would refuse to count the vote, thereby cancelling the EGM. I've never heard of such a thing to be honest. No doubt by this stage it was all about damage control. The fact their CFO resigned, as did their NOMAD, and their auditors suggests something was amiss. Quite what went wrong is difficult to put a finger on. The way I see it, they were simply not able to foresee how events would play out like they did. With all that said, I still fancy SHG as one to buy on dips. It has a history of performing well and meeting expectations. It's prospects are exciting and the development to ramp up production is ongoing.

Good morning Juxtapose, Last Fridays development re: the LMI buyout of Anglo's stake in Pandora is interesting and well worth highlighting. Presumably it is being treated as a 'distressed sell' given it's current loss making credentials. News like this will have an impact on the platinum industry as a whole, not because of Pandora's size or contribution to annual platinum production but due to the message it sends out. LMI do have some momentum behind them following the placing they conducted to raise cash and they have since been able to boost cash reserves. So they are in the perfect position to mop up a large stake from a fellow JV partner. The message being broadcast seems to be expect higher platinum prices in the future. Notice the terms of the agreement and the dates stipulated. I think LMI are actually looking to increase output rather than cut loss making ounces, groups costs will be absorbed easier this way. If they do announce reduced production elsewhere I will be surprised given they announced 35koz more production than forecast. Fortunately we also have Palladium and Rhodium in our PGM basket (some 37-38%) and they are trading up at $700 and $750 respectively, together with the weaker Platinum price gives us a basket price today of around $858. Assuming output doesn't come in too far below the previous quarter we will be looking at some healthy margins once again.

Still buying the dip here. I'm all for buying low and selling high. I can't get any for the price you sold at though Indie which is a shame.

However you try to spin it SLPs share price is all that matters as that is what people trade to make their money. SLP's 52 week low came mid June when the share price traded at 6.25p (£18m). BREXIT effect simply makes this stock appear cheaper when earnings are converted, right now it looks excellent value. If you had simply done your homework and checked you would find the valuation in USD has also been lower before. On a number of occasions in the past 6 months in fact. It's not trading off some imaginary all time low equation whichever way you spin it. The exchange was 1:1.41 in mid June and the share price fell to 6.25 That's £18m which comes to $25.42m The exchange was 1:1.32 in the third week of July and the share price fell to 7.25 That's £20.91m which comes to $27.6m The exchange is currently 1:1.247 and the share price is 7.85 SLP's current market value is £22.7m which equates to a value of $28.3m

Lol give it up, you sold out right at the bottom of an upswing The share price dipped to around 7.3p and you sold the next day at 7.5 - 7.6 (August 31). You had no idea about declining production and from what it sounds like lost your nerve. The share price then surged higher in the following two weeks. It was made plainly clear why that would happen. Quarterly results due. And lo and behold the share price touched 9.75p 11 days later. It's in your posting history. You are fooling noone. I find it amusing you need to list your qualifications as a means of validation yet still choose to lie through your teeth. I wouldn't be surprised if you have bought back in now given the fickle nature you've displayed. For all your qualifications you lack a basic understanding of how markets work. Trading at all time lows in relation to the pound, and...? Have you opened your eyes and seen the devastating effects on miners since the election? SLP was down 10% at it's worst point but has regained some of those losses. Clearly plenty of support at this level hence why I am holding for the next set of results. Easy money to trade once again.

Monty888 - all I see here is a bounce off support. There is no upwards momentum. This has fallen throughout the year and further following the interims. Talk of a better second half is all conjecture at this point without any facts or figures to back up the claims. The SP has fallen substantially though so perhaps this will move higher. Personally I wouldn't put my hard-earned into something hoping for a bounce off lows. SLP deals with a basket of precious metals not just platinum which makes up around 62% of our sales. LMI is a pure platinum play I believe. SLP process palladium and rhodium and together they make up 38% of the PGM basket. I was invested in SHG a couple of weeks ago but sold all my gold plays in the lead up to the election. MARL have held up well but I cannot see the attraction given it's market value is already £88m and is years from production. Dilution will come back to haunt investors there at some point. Gold plays are not currently flavour of the month but then neither are most commodity stocks.

Well this is happening faster than expected but gold wasn't supposed to breakdown so quickly. Perhaps the chance of a rate hike in December has increased given Trumps intended policies to boost inflation. 5800 target not far away now. If gold has further to fall then there will be little in the way of support.

Buy this man a drink! You're right gotabesirius. Short term fundamentals stack up well, despite the current drop in volumes. South Africa produces more than 70% of the global platinum supply and holds around 80% of global platinum reserves. The importance of mining in South Africa is currently “under-represented”, Moody’s said. This article helps outline the reason why investors should be thinking positively about platinum in the coming years. http://www.fin24.com/Money/Investments/do-not-underestimate-sa-platinum-expert-20160914 Today copper is surging again and Nickel continue to rise so AMC are enjoying a welcome boost! If anyone is interested they did recently announce a long awaited MoU.

I feel the effects of the worlds most important presidential race had more to do with SLP's recent fluctuations than simply the price of platinum. Metal prices have been volatile this past week, we've seen gold surge and then fall back below it's support a week earlier. Copper is in hot demand. Platinum peaked 2-3 days ago but is still holding levels much higher than the October lows. If it were simply a case of SLP mirroring the price of platinum then we should be at 9p like we saw in early October when Platinum was last trading above $1000/oz. Similarly when platinum fell to around $930 last month shares traded hands at around 8-8.25 (11th - 12th). Platinum rose towards the end of October but only to around current levels and shares then traded hands at 9p+ for about 10 days. We are a whole penny short of where we should be if SLP was tracking platinum. What's more if SLP were tracking the PGM basket price which is a better reflection of financials then we should be higher still. Rhodium is breaking new year highs and Palladium is back to highs last seen in early October. The current share price weakness can be attributed to general market fears as we saw with losses across the US markets and closer to home many UK mining and exploration outfits take hits. There may also be some keeping clear until we draw close to the next quarterly results (January). I do agree that under normal trading circumstances the price of platinum would be the leading factor here. Hopefully as we move away from all the election drama the PGM basket will remain high (currently $875/oz for November) and buyers will recognise the value here