RE: One for the Sunday morning coffee.24 Jan 2021 13:24
Hey Poor, welcome to the BB.
MCAP is still incredibly low so this derisks things to a large extent. But off the top of my heads, risks/bad potential news.....
- Insanely small free float so this share subject to big volatility. There are a small number of PIs here but many have a few million share holdings, so distressed sellers could have a material impact on share price if it’s done at the wrong time.
- building a position can be tricky because of the above. Buy on the dips if you can, as many posted last week there were a lot of days of NT.
- Potential delays due to C-19?. We need all the drill results from the extended program before we get the PEA. If they are slow we could see a Q2 PEA, but at the moment no indication of this. I guess that may be a very short term risk.
- The company doesn’t like PR, which can get frustrating. I think now they need to start telling the story. There are a few on Twitter trying to do it for them. We are still below the radar but word is starting to spread.
- we are fully funded to the PEA, then will need to look at next stage financing or (more likely) a Partner as we move to fast track concentrate production. (Not a risk or bad news but just calling it out. If it’s a Partner then it’s actually a huge positive)
- I guess you could say bad news would be a bad PEA, but I really can’t see this and even if you take a massive hedge on the numbers DCAT has produced the project is still more than viable.
As you can see, I’m struggling to find much bad news.
One word of caution, this one is really for sticky hands. I think we should see good gains in 2021 but best to think about this as a multi year hold. This won’t multibag over night (well that’s my expectation but happy to be proven wrong).
Long term could be massive, there have been debates over divis as a way to return cash to the BoD who own the majority of the company. I try not to think about this (apart from on a Friday night with a G&T) as the numbers are crazily positive.
There is always a level of risk in any AIM company so obviously DYOR but after 2 years being invested, things are looking pretty good.
The release of the PEA in Q1 should be transformational we all hope.
Things to read.
- good investor presentation on the website
- Christmas RNS update
- early 2020 Q&A RNS
I have posted quite a bit on Twitter just look at #JAN.
DCAT & Swizz are the guys with all the in-depth sector knowledge so look at their history here..... I am just the cheerleader :-)
Fingers crossed for a good 2021 here.
Tex