Member Info for TerryM1

As stated on an alternative board

SUPR NAV at 30 June 2022 was 115p so a 13.3% decline makes it 99.7p today.

This NAV should have been reported in the RNS but this seems a fair assumption. This means that if the SP goes above 99.7p SUPR is trading at a premium and leaves the management in a position for another placing which they have become addicted to over the last few years. The cynic in me thinks these placing are an easy way to grow the company so the management get extra fees but do not add value for shareholders. This always depresses the SP and keeps a cap on the SP as why buy in the market when another placing will soon be along. The worst is the SP starts reducing to around the placing price a few weeks before the announcement so the news has been leaked but FCA do nothing about insider dealing that occurs.

Interesting that Kistos is much higher up the table and SQZ are at the bottom but still a good sign

Kistos Holdings (375p) 160p 68.6p +133% 136p
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Serica Energy (257p) 119p 96.4p +24% 133p

Take a look at the outrage at Centricas profits, Ed Miliband calling for a proper WFT (whatever that is), the current government may say they are not going to increase WTF but does this include keeping allowances. However a mute point when Labour get in, unfortunate any Oil and Gas assets in the UK will become close to worthless. Perhaps this deal has some hidden value but the huge risks are far from hidden.

Fitch has reaffirmed the Company's existing Investment Grade, long-term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) of 'BBB+' with a stable outlook.

From RNS

HL have added the first tranche to my account which is around 65% of the total, other tranche should be added later this month subject to shareholder approval.

This may explain the drop in the price as those after a quick gain move out. Would expect a steady by slow rise from now (or after the second tranche put into accounts) as the market absorbs the shares from those taking a quick (but small) profit.

Don't like this blackmail, take 285p per share or we will de-list you, pitty FCA are useless as this should be stopped.

But don't worry you will probably get a chance to buy in again in a few years on the new IPO at a greatly increased price.

LochinvarLass

Looking at Gibraltar, off soon to look at some properties which are incredibly high price, will come back to UK from time to time, depending on how much ties you still have the UK you can come back for 29 to 182 days in a tax year.

There is a calculator for number of days on HMRC website.

Grumpyoldman9
"I will have to pay (33.75% minus the US tax already paid of 15%), thus 18.75% to HMRC on my DEC dividends. "

I am fairly certain that this is the case, if I am not sure of something I just put it into the HMRC SA online tax return with fictitious numbers and press calculate to see the result, off course remember to undo this before submitting. In one case I had I tracked down a HMRC bug which left me with a £1500 greater tax bill than I should have had, had to submit a paper return then ague for 18 months with HMRC before they admitted their mistake and gave a sort of apology. As always DYOR.

However this brings up something interesting in that if you are a high rate tax payer there is no advantage to W8-BEN outside ISA or SIPP or investing in UK as opposed to foreign stocks with WHT. Given the increasing dividend tax and poor UK performance I seriously considering moving most of my equity investments into US stocks. Look at Shell/BP compared to EXON etc.

LochinvarLass

As a general rule it makes sense to put anything in the ISA you can but of course there are limits so I fill my ISA with income stocks like REITS (which give the best tax savings) and other high paying ordinary dividend stocks. I am basing my investment strategy on the assumption you can fill you ISA with other investments and helps keep you out of the 40% band.

As far as Capital Gains Tax is concerned again there is not so much advantage IMO as REITs as 20% tax saving at the standard rate on dividends where there is some CGT allowances (greatly reducing as is dividend allowances) but is only taxed at either 10% standard rate tax payers 20% max for high rate tax payers and does not take your other income into the high rate band. Also you can choose when to take the gains and offset against losses. I am intending to leave the UK because of tax (which will only get worse) and other issues and will go where there is no CGT so can take it all then, My intended destination also has no dividend, pension and interest taxes and 300 days a year of sunshine along with a good health service.

SIPPs are good but I am approaching my lifetime allowance so no point in putting anything into a pension to be taxed at an even higher rate.

Grumpyoldman9

As you may well know you will need to have a W8-BEN to get the 15% WHT as opposed to the 30% WHT and also hold these shares in a institution that is prepared to honour this. The ones attached to the large banks tend not honor this and you get 30% WHT. I have moved my DEC holding to HL which honors this.

If your dividends for the year are over the HMRC allowance you can fill in the SA forgiven income section and state the amount withheld. If you are in the basic rate tax bank the dividend tax is 8.75% which is offset against the 15% already paid so nothing to pay.

For me I keep my DEC shares out of an ISA and have no SIPPs, this is because I pay no additional dividend tax and keep REITs and other UK shares in my ISA which gives me a 20% tax savings on REITs and 8.75% on non foreign dividends. This will become even more relevant as the divided tax allowances are reduced over the next few years,.

Diversified Energy Company raises US$163mln for new acquisition as it kicks off 2023 with a bang

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1005650/diversified-energy-company-raises-us-163mln-for-new-acquisition-as-it-kicks-off-2023-with-a-bang-1005650.html

Mostly what we know already but worth a read

My predation was correct, just got a message from HL

Your new shares will be credited to your Fund and Share Account in two parts with your unconditional allocation of
Regarding account 9366 shares (approx 66%) due to be released shortly before 8am on Tuesday 14 February. Your conditional allocation of 4919 (approx 34% ) shares are subject to shareholder approval, which if approved at the General Meeting will be credited shortly before 8am on Tuesday 28 February.

In HL there are now 2 entries in pending order for this under the name Project Tudor (Unconditional) Follow-On - Retail Offer, . One is 66% of my full application and the other 34%.

This probably means that I will get the full allocation in the 2 tranches specified in the offer document, one will settle on 14 February 2023 the other will be conditional on shareholder approval at a General Meeting and is expected to settle on 28 February 2023.

However this is only a guess based on what I can see.

I think the acquisition in itself is good and will help shareholder value.

There are a number of downsides to this.

1. The small shareholders always get treated as second class with a blink and you miss it application with just very few shares allocated. If you missed the email or need to move money from an account that takes a few hours you obviously you have no chance but you will suffer reduction in share price. However at least the small shareholders got treated as second class not ignored as is sometimes the case when they cannot apply.

2. I find that when a company keeps raising money in this way it lowers the share price as nobody wants to pay too much for the shares when one of these could be just round the corner.

3. The small guy loses out as the share price drops for what seems to no good reason before the fundraise due to insider trading. The FCA will make sure you get all the useless information and tie you up in knots at every possible opportunity but never investigates large price movements just before a price sensitive announcements.

This type of deal in not unusual, I have been involved as retail investor in a few.

I and my partner have both applied with about 15 mins to spare, almost missed it, can’t understand why so little time it just had to completed for market opening tomorrow so closing time could easily have been 9pm or later this evening, better still this could be done on a Friday giving retail investors the weekend to decide and get funds together.

No doubt the institutions involved in the placing have a lot longer to decide and get funds together, once it gets to this stage it is more or less a done deal, if the institutions had not already committed to the placing it would not have got this far.

As a retail investor it can be disconcerting to apply not knowing the price but I believe it will be a good price otherwise the institutions would not have taken this up as they can just buy in the market so it should be below the market price. We will soon know the take up and price my guess is 108p and oversubscribed but I could be wrong.

As always there are leaks which explains the recent price drop, I believe if you are confident about DEC this will be a good way to increase your holding for a price below a market already brought down by this deal (happens more or less every time) and no dealing costs.

IMO the main danger is the market in general which can be brought down at any time by some bad news.

The way I have been viewing O&G is that due to ESG a number of the Big O&G companies limited exploration and did some ESG stuff to keep the ESG lot less angry. This has been a win win for O&G because the reduced costs of exploration and the shortages that have ensured have put the price of O&G up a lot.

In other words to keep up your reserves in $ terms either pay a lot out for new reserves or do nothing and your current reserves along with your profit will rise above what you would have got if you laid out the money.

Clinch

Total agree.

But apart from a few companies like SQZ, the WFT will becomes less relevant O&G companies move out of the UK, take a look at Shell and BP about 5% in the UK and reducing, Harbour and Equinor looking elsewhere. It is somewhat ironic that the more Shell and BP make the more calls for more WFT that will hit companies like SQZ with very little impact on Shell and BP leaving them to make more money importing O&G from overseas.

Probably due to increase WFTs Shell and BP do not think it is worth pandering up to the UK government on ESG projects as the UK becomes more irrelevant as they go to places where they are not at war with O&G.

GeneralLevy

“I don’t agree, renewables are cheaper than fossil fuels for power generation that’s just a fact and the gap is widening”

Only if you just count generation costs and nothing else.

Some facts on Renewables

1. The renewable generation costs may be less but that does not take into account infrastructure copper wires etc and the cost of decommissioning.

2. No matter how you look at it you need twice the generation capacity if using Wind and Solar and backup has to be something like gas, batteries can help a bit for a few hours but are another additional cost to this system. So to sum it up you need O&G backup system which are inefficient compared to ones run 24/7.

3. From European Journal for business Science Revised: March 14, 2022. It is concluded that in an electricity supply system based on wind and solar power, it is not the electricity generation that causes the greatest costs, but the storage.

4. The cost of electricity in the UK using gas, biomass wind and solar is far more than China using mostly fossil fuels. In June 22, kWh, U.S. Dollar, UK 0.472, China 0.079.

5. The most energy consumption is in an anticyclone in the winter when there is very little wind and the UK at its coldest as we have had recently, hence all the payments made for people to cut back on electricity during these times.

6. Large generators are most efficient when run 24/7, much more efficient and cheaper to run than backup systems so a fossil fuel generation is far cheaper running 24/7 than being brought up and down to fill in the gaps for Wind and Solar

Thehickster

Totally agree, it is like buying a dilapidated house where the survey stated the value is far lower than you are paying and the previous owner took the boiler, and all pipe work for their other property. Also you would have to handover 28% of your house all because of a rumour that you think may exists there is some hidden treasure in the cellar. But don’t worry it’s price may go up some time in the future.

NEWKOBT
“mysterious' backroom dealings that none of us are privy”

It is either the hidden treasure or a sweetheart deal for the BOD, if you think it is hidden treasure I have a great deal for you, some swamp land in the Mississippi and some tulip bulbs.

Andy144

Western Government spending is the elephant in the room and has been for many years, there is 3 ways to increase this, sell off assets, borrowing on the markets or printing money, the latter 2 have been turbo changed and it is the huge amount of printing money (especially during lockdown) which caused this inflation. What did governments think would happen as sure as night follows day it happens every time, take look at what John Law did to France.

The on balance sheet debt which is what you are talking about is huge and probably not repayable and must just have to keep being rolled on as long as the markets can take it. Then these is the off balance sheet debt which is much higher, this is the debt that governments want to hide, in the UK it is things like public sector pension, state pension, PFIs etc. It has been recently reported in the times that the state pension fund will run out in 2035 and then there is no money to pay pensions. In the UK the off balance sheet debt is probably around £7tn and I have head estimates in the US of over $100tn, it is hard to get a figure on this, I have found them before through google but searches do not bring this up any more (wonder why). There is one article from 2013 which states the US off balance sheet debt of $70tn. I once checked this with an economics professor as I thought this cannot be right, he said this is probably an underestimate. The western governments, BOE, Treasure are like judgers, if they can keep all the balls in the air we think they are magicians once one ball goes the rest follows and then we look at them as idiots. IMO it is just a matter of time before this whole house of cards collapses.

NewKOB

One problem with the analysis is that

“BP to cut back on green shift amid booming demand for fossil fuels”

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bp-cut-back-renewable-efforts-133044678.html

It looks like Shell may do the same, now looking to pull out of loss making Energy supply companies in Europe also now there are questions about how committed they are to green agenda.

My guess is that BP/Shell etc tried to keep UK and European Governments happy with green stuff energy supply companies etc but it has not worked, just more taxes so will be downsizing assets in UK and Europe. I think most of the NS O&G companies will want to unload a lot of their NS assets because of WFT, threat of more taxes and Labour government etc, perhaps these will be a bargain but I like them think there is very little future in UK O&G. Labour are still pushing the lines for more WFT especially after the Shell results which are only 5% generated in the UK, how Labour think they can tax earning overseas is beyond me, they can try but these companies will just leave the UK like Shell did in Holland. I can see every time BP and Shell put out good results there is more pressure to increase WFT even though it will make very little difference to BP and Shell as mostly out of the UK but it will to SQZ. I hope SQZ see the light and do not put more good money after bad in UK O&G assets but unfortunately I suspect they will.

Unfortunately I see Mercuria just finding ways to suck the cash out of SQZ and leave a debt ridden hulk paying almost all profits in tax. I hope I am wrong but for me the obvious reason for this deal is simply to take SQZ out of play for takeovers so the BOD can keep their jobs.

No information has come to light to show there is hidden value in this deal, the fact remains this deal is crap and our only hope is the BOD are hiding something, not much to for anyone to be a buyer of SQZ shares hence the current SP.

If there was real value in picking up NS assets I think Kistos would be after them which they clearly are not. The question that we should ask ourselves is SQZ or Kistos, BP, Shell, Harbour etc strategy the right one?