RE: Question: how is blue Cheaper than Green?18 Jul 2021 21:11
Intersting article Taskmaster.
Blue is being driven by companies/countries where there are significant assets 'in peril' in a post carbon world - and can actually make carbon capture and storage work. .
Green will be stronger where there is a 'clean sheet' start eg Australia, Chile and arguably large parts of the Middle East looking at a post oil economy. Wind, solar and electrolysis give them a (relatively) easy route forward.
I see two 'killer issues' that offer green the medium ot long term winning hand. The first will be carbon taxes and the associated certifiaction/accreditation of the hydrogen source.
The second will be the costeffectiveness of working CCS at very large scale. There are not many working examples anywhere and in the UK both goverment and corprates have bauled at the costs of implementation eg BP and Peterhead power station - and of course guaranteeing that the CO2 etc is securelyy locked up for a minimum of 100 years. Not impossible but expensive.
Consider the costs of nuclear de-commissioning - never included in the cost of building becasue the state will pick it up when service ends. The State will not be doing that for CCS - the full lidfe cost of 'decommissioning teh CO2 will have to be rolled into the cost (and price) of Blue hydrogen.
Compare that with green where the scaling up and technology improvements in turbines, solar and electrolysis will drive costs down with certainty.
This is not a VHS/Betamax winner takes all but green has a future potential of reducing costs and I am not sure Blue offers that in the medium longer term. Short and mediuum term Blue is a defensive opportunity to protect existing assets, but those assets will age and decommission - look at the North Sea now.
I think ther is a geo-political angle too. THe west (EU, USA , Japan, UK etc) will push 'real' green and tax/tarrif accordingly. China, Russia and their circle will be happy to use blue/grey and just call it green.
Anyway some thoughts on a Sunday evening.....