Member Info for Temple_of_Doom

Be careful about interpreting buys as sells Trek … the MMs are using Level II to try to spoof investors … Recently I’ve been getting orders through the books that pay little attention to LII pricing …. Almost not worth paying the extra for the facility IMO

Forward electricity prices are reverting back to pre pandemic levels while US gas is down at 20 year lows after the Ukraine spike … US are cutting gas production hence the mini rally this past week, while spring and autumn lows are not uncommon as people switch from heating to air conditioning …. While the UK market itself is weak reflecting the economy with higher for longer interest rates hence the sell off in this sector the last two months.

Probably some additional nerves about a Labour government at what it has in mind for the energy sector …

… energy storage in the UK is a take back control basket case so lots of ill wind blowing against NESF hence the 94p-73p sell off these past two months in the sector.

SEIT led the way early january … but has now recovered … I expect the same here … with a current average of 80p against 105p last year and a tad over 10% yield suits me fine.

GLA

Longer term investors are already “loosers” and given potential losses the annual ISA contribution the least concern. While anyone holding DGI9 looking for a quick buck takes their risk - as now clearly highlighted in yesterday’s RNS.

In my view, the DGI9 share should have been suspended the moment the decision to wind down was made pending confirmation by shareholders - don’t really give a dam about sideline issues ….

I bought back more yesterday, revenues look fine, interest rates look like they will fall, I expect hedge funds to be dipping their hands into their pockets to buy me out.

GLA.

The “company” also stated today it will look to add short term debt if needed assuming I read correctly.

All that will happen is that ISA holdings will move to trading accounts …

The difficulty with CAML is a lacking in growth with 15 years or so of life left out of current assets as far as I can gather. Too much time between the takeover and Sasa and new acquisitions, where exploration should have started much earlier - but my guess is that the bet was to match Sasa with another deal over the past 5 years. Not happened and now two such deals are needed to replace existing production going forwards.

On the plus side, in 10 years CAML could have $360 Million in the bank having returned 200p to shareholders with 5 years or so to decommission and sell off machinery .... as well as having some returns from solar power to the locals.

So the share seems more like a bond is it stands now.

Anyone disagree?

On the plus side, however, cash rich and getting richer. Let's be conservative with 15p divi and 15p stored in the bank each year - makes 30p so current holders will have value equating to the current share price in a tad over 5 years from now in terms of divis and cash stored in the bank assuming current trend continues ...

HL. Is down … one of those sell on the news declines IMO.

More likely results have been mooted under the table… in my view … week to go shorts buying back my view.

NESF have made a big play on subsidy free renewable energy production post 2017/18. It’s looking to reduce RCF debt with sell offs … but on the other hand it has £200 million preference shares recorded as debt on the balance sheet paying 4.5% interest at this point … that is cheap given the current market rates.

US Natural gas spot prices are close to 20 year lows - bringing electricity prices down with it in anticipation … is the recent issue.

Bought two lots at 35p .. cleared one lot for the next low.

"who is selling?" My own view, looking at the list of shorts and connections, is that purchaser of Metro share rights issue at 30p or whatever .... with upfront knowledge of the transaction put in place a quiet short to hedge for losses thus recouping their investment .... it's what I would do on the quiet - were I so wealthy. All in my opinion of course.

"Morningstar maintains a 3-star quantitative star rating for Metro Bank Holdings, derived from the

firm's valuation and uncertainty scores. The company's shares last closed at 0.33, below our quantitative fair value estimate of 0.83. These shares have traded between a 62.37% and 28.6% discount to their fair value estimate over the past

year. "

83p.

Bad numbers and bankrupt numbers are not the same thing. I see value here and am prepared to take the risk, and I expect a reward if the risk taken lands in my favour.

At the end of the day, the consultation extension is a few months, and the Icelandic concern the weight of investment of Ardian France SA in Iceland if I have read correctly.

My bet is that 3 months won't make much difference to DGI9 given revenues, and that approval will follow.

Thereafter, looking at the Arqiva transaction, £300 million went towards equity with the rest VLNs that in principle earn a return for DGI9 has holders.

We will see.

"a suspension now." There I agree ... should have been suspended after the announcement of the wind down until clarity prevailed. Too late now.

"If DGI9 cannot relinquish the other assets, it's curtains."

Posted 6 month revenues were of the order of £24 million after taking away management fees. The issue is that current revenues do not pay the 6p dividend intended plus interest from the RCF.

As yet we don't know what revenues have been June-Dec 2023 nor do we know the future investment cash demand of current businesses. Someone will know be leaking that information .. and it likely will not be pretty. But these are currently unknowns to the wider market.

"My maths at the moment, sell Aqua Comms for £150m and Elio for £30m + £50m cash."

I can work out the sums .... now read the background text ...

"As such, while D9 will continue to consider and be open to all options for Arqiva which are value-accretive to shareholders, the Board has decided to defer a sale process for D9's stake in Arqiva for the time being. The Board will continue to explore various options including capital markets alternatives."

Arqiva will more than likely list on LSE in the near future ... that process was delayed in 2017 because of Brexit uncertainty.

Whether DGI9 survives long enough is a different matter.

I want 50p a share. That's my target - so I'd vote against a takeover.

"The Board intends to immediately commence sale preparations for the Company's wholly-owned assets ahead of launching competitive processes later this year. "

The board are not in a hurry to sell assets .... but bear in mind as assets are sold, management fees relative to income will increase so head count needs to reduce proportionally.

In principle yes the blocking of Verne sale means a change in strategy … but the cash return on assets is currently 6% rather than the predicted 10% … there is no dividend … so that’s a cash saving … if the company is winding down it can reduce head count, making further savings … and no profit warning as yet so either the directors are in breach of their duties that is entirely possible … or things can bumble on to get past the current hurdles as interest rates fall.