Member Info for tedoby

Exactly so CF73!

I don't see an issue with it.

The more questions we can ask and guidance we can get the better.

The copies look right to me. Thanks again sharecrew.

Very encouraging and as you say strongman Microtans link wasn't the right one.

Microtan I'm not sure he mentioned the DD piece in his interview.

Of course I could be wrong.

sharecrew thanks very much for sharing your exchange with GR.

It does sound very positive as you say.

Thanks to you too CF73.

Great posts today Strongman! Very good and very balanced.

GLA

glosman I'm aligned with your reasoning on Zulu.

There are a couple of things to take into account though which you might also want to consider.

Firstly as I understand it there are negotiations going on and the moment to increase Zulu's tenement area and hopefully the resources and reserves estimated in the DFS. We should hear news on how that's going this month or next I believe. You probably heard GR mention further exploration recently in his interview and I think that may be what he's alluding to.

Ans secondly Zimbabwe has to cope with the El Nino weather system and that fluctuates -good and bad and it's that that causes volatility in the seasons . Three years ago the country went through severe droughts which had a very serious impact particularly on farming. To mitigate the impact of that situation should it occur again this year the government are undertaking a campaign to drill boreholes into the water-table in all provinces and that campaign is heavily supported by finance from China. You may of heard about it.

The climate conditions will undoubtedly have an influence on Zulu's timescales and this year Washington Zhakata, who heads Zimbabwe's Climate Change Management Department has said that once an El Nino sets in, depending on its strength and nature, the chances of low or below normal rainfall are between 50 and 65%. Some experts consider that view could be conservative and Zimbabwe could be facing longer dry spells than normal tet again in what's classed as the wet season.

If that forecast is right then is quite possible that drilling at Zulu could be carried out throughout the year regardless of the seasons. It's diamond drilling so that helps and there are hard access routes for mobilisation and hardstandings for the drill rigs already established I believe.

I may be wrong but GR needs to be asked on Tuesday to give us a better picture.

GLA

Thanks to you too CF73!

If you are right, ( and I firmly believe you could be ) and PREM gets to a DFS on Zulu without releasing any more equity that changes the landscape for PREM shareholders completely.

MauCo has a good chance of being a $1.5bn value mining company within three years ( 250kt's of >6% Spodumene concentrate @ $1000/t - less costs).

So based upon the concentrate route rather than the more lucrative carbonate route PREM has the inherent value in it's assets that it can use to get the company there without any more dilution at all in fact.

That senario devolves into a SP of around 15p for Prem without counting anything else ( RHA & Circum etc ). All based upon going the less lucrative concentrate route!

Zulu is just a monster that's set to grow and quite soon too in fact!!

randomaxe if I'm right about why I think Cadence couldn't follow through on the HoT agreement I don't think it would be appropriate to shout it from the hilltops.

I don't believe the problem was any fault of PREMS. At the beginning of the DD everything was fine. At that time KDNC has a 7% equity investment and a 30% j.v. agreement at project level with a company BCN.

BCN needed to raise considerable Capex finance to move the project forward. But they failed and as a result they lost over 60% of their MC in a matter of a few weeks. At the start of the DD period BCN's MC was over £120m and today it stands at just over £50m

It follows that KDNC lost £5m or more in the same period i.e. in just a few weeks but their MC was only around £15m to begin with!! That must have shook KDNC to their very foundations and they could be feeling the repercussions from it for some time.

Of course all of this is public knowledge for all to see but as I say I doubt KDNC of PREM will want to be broadcasting it. PREM out of courtesy more than anything.

At the same time however I believe it's very important for PREMS shareholders to understand that the problem didn't lye at PREMS feet and to be told that PREM has alternatives in place which I firmly believe it has.

Of course I may be wrong but please DYOR and see what you make of it.

GLA

Thanks for sharing it with us all Strongman.

VBW

Strongman that could well be it in part.

I'm hoping we'll here about a new strategic mining plan for the next five years say to include a new inclined shaft to new and reformed shaped underground stopes with a mechanical extract system either by motorised trucks or perhaps better still a belt fro there.

We've seen in the past a production target of 10,000mtu's APT per month mentioned in PREM's information. But that was by extracting 40,000t's of ore from both the underground mine from the pit.

Now RHA are considering not only mechanising the underground mine but also open mining the pit and the tailings. So if that all falls into place we should see three sources of ore being delivered to the ROM pad. It follows that the 10,000mtu's figure could be increased considerably.

So I'm also hoping we'll see a new target of at least 12,000mtu's per month being which at todays APT prices of say $300/mtu would give RHA an annual revenue of $42m and hopefully an approximate "earnings" figure of at least $25m p.a.

From there let's say using a P/E of 10 and a with a shared equity of 60% PREM could enjoy $150m contribution towards it's MC which would in turn convert to a SP of 1.5p if PREM had 8bn shares in issue.

I also hope we'll hear about a potential equity partner giving RHA three shareholders and PREM holding the lions share of about 60% as I've used in the calculation.

Finally I hope we'll hear about a better off-take arrangement perhaps with or without Noble but with an additional debt finance facility that could be called upon if and when it was needed at a couple of % above LIBOR for PREM to use across its portfolio.

GLA

CF73 yours is a very measured post too.

We should be open minded until we have the facts.

GLA

The reasons behind the failure to crystallise the the Heads of Terms agreement on MauCo are undisclosed and it's clear that shareholders in PREM will be looking for clarity in the coming days. It's only right that they should.

Today the facts we have are that the political situation if anything has improved since the extension to the period was agreed. However conversely it's evident that KDNC's finances have worsened considerably since the RNS in June. BCN one of KDNC's prime investments lost over 60% of it's value during the period and that's had quite an impact on KDNC. It too lost over 25%.

I may be getting 5 when adding 2+2 but I would say raising the $5.1m for MauCo probably became a bridge too far for KDNC during the DD period. The original $1.5m would have called for equity release which would likely have caused discontent amongst shareholders against the backdrop of a falling SP.

I'm not convinced the reason was political. Neither to I think we should judge anyone without the facts.

The deal with KDNC hasn't just been about the money for PREM. The priority has been about finding a partner with the right skill set.

KDNC was first choice. But PREM have always kept options and thery're still on the table as I understand it.

PREM has been showing favour the KDNC by helping with their DD and granting them an extension etc. Not to mention giving them first refusal.

I doubt KDNC out of courtesy would have run this to the wire if the answer was a "no". They would have let PREM know long before now if that was the case in my view.

From KDNC's point of view they'd be bonkers to turn the j.v away if what we've been told is correct and there's independent verification of it all so it should be.

Clearly there will more potential in Zulu in an improving market as time goes on. But even if those stayed the same Mauco will be at least a $1bn to $1.5bn mine in less than 3 years. It'll be producing at least 200kt's of concentrate by then giving the mine an annual revenue of around $200m with a PBT of roughly $150m.

so in an earnings metric appraisal with a P/E of 10 we're talking about a $1.5bn mine! If KDNC's ownership didn't change that would give them a contribution of £500m towards their MC within 3years all for a staggered payment of $5.1m!!!! and give them the control level they're looking for too.

As I say they'd be bonkers to turn it away and they would've let PREM and the market know before now.

GLA

CF73 thanks for your great posts today. Thanks for yours too Charlie.

Your figures on Zulu were also confirmed as about right by Cadence in their webinar CF.

GLA

Great posts today CF! Really good so thanks.

I'm guessing but I imagine Circum will be be revising its DFS. In particular the costs and logistics in the old one are sure to have changed considerably now.

GLA

I agree NaPoM

In fairly short order and whilst we're doing the analysis work on the pit and tailings I think we'll see thr uderground mine brought back into producing where it was last December - i.e. 6,000t's of ore delivered to the ROM pad. At that point the mine should easily "wash it's face"and negate the care and maintenance costs which have been running for the last 8 months. It should produce between 2,500 and 3,000 MTU's/month processed through the sorter and break even is said to be just over half that at todays APT prices.

40,000t's delivered to the ROM pad from both the underground mine and the pit as you say is a reasonable target and it should give us the original 10,000 MTU's/month APT production rate.

But we now have at least another two pieces of the jigsaw to consider. The mechanisation of the underground mine and processing the the tailings. I'm guessing but I could see production being increased by 25% to 50% implementing these two changes.

GLA

degsie - excellent data and information. Clearly there's great potential in the stocks listed based upon the NPV's

On the face of things you're correct to draw attention to the apparent disconnect between KDNC's MC of £13m and your assumption of what it perhaps should be i.e. £50m

FWIW the development of a mining stock and it's value generally follows a "logarithmic curve" which as you probably know is the opposite to exponential. What that should tell you in a convoluted way is that generally the stocks are at the bottom of the curve near the axis. It follows therefore if the NPV's are correct that the growth from here should be relatively rapid providing things go to plan.

To get a much clearer picture each stock should be considered on it's merits. Then combined to give an overall view.

I'm not sure if I've complicated things but I've simply tried to help.

GLA

I'm not sure milnrowmug. On the photo's I've seen he doesn't look as though he has a disability.

International support seems to be growing now which is no bad thing!

"Germany has pledged to open lines of credit for Zimbabwe and deepen bilateral relations as the international community warms up to President Mnangagwa’s administration following free, fair and credible elections held on July 30. The commitment was made by Germany Economic Co-operation Minister Dr Gerd Muller, the first German minister to visit Zimbabwe in 20 years, after he paid a courtesy call on President Mnangagwa at his Munhumutapa Offices in Harare yesterday."

VW might be after the Lithuim!

Another one:-

https://www.newsday.co.zw/2018/08/zim-germany-renew-economic-co-operation/