The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Approximately 90,000 babies per year in the UK are treated with gentamicin on intensive care units. UK market therefore about £3m at £35 per test. Other countries like Spain have higher mutation frequency. I think Dave said yesterday world market is about £30m per annum. A nice market for us!
Some reading for those interested...
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2034737/
from https://www.ft.com/content/07f76b06-73db-4647-97b6-ef0a9a58626d
"One tender worth £22bn, released by Public Health England last week, is open to companies that make different testing equipment, including medical devices and “a range of clinical laboratory diagnostic testing services”.
Suggests we must be either under the BC or Sysmex tender as it looks to be the same one...
I have heard that testing is likely to be required for the coming 3-4 years, potentially longer in countries that won't have immediate access to vaccines. There are over 15 Bn rounds of vaccination to be delivered , going to take some time. In the mean time there is a probability that new genotypes of the virus that emerge that evade the vaccines induced immunity... what a mess...
not sure, someone did post both the other week and we only saw BC and Sysmex as tender suppliers so we have to assume that GDR are part of those as Dave said we were part of the tender process... it's a smart move as the relationship is with $Bn businesses and that should give confidence in delivery
I think because the market perceives this as a transient market, we need to discount that expectation, at least until we know that this is a 2,5,10 year opportunity. That said, with all of the sales combined, even at a 5x multiple that market cap seems achievable.
Agree Phil, we have to look at sales and what they support in terms of a MC, I think a more mature board discussion now over coming weeks as those approvals and sales start to drop in.
Even with the vaccines, questions will remain over what protection is provided. Certainly as long as vaccinations are required testing will also be required. There is strong evidence in other disease that when you suppress one genotype, mutations can be given a positive evolutionary pressure where they allow the virus or bacteria to evade the immune response. That needs monitoring via regular population testing.
That European sales contract is a key one very short term as it would provide income and adjust the market cap here. Although the covid market is probably a 2-3 year prospect (assuming vaccines give long term protection and don't fall over when the virus mutates), we can see combined revenues in excess of £50m+. It's starting to take shape.
a really positive and honest presentation from Dave and Matt today, enjoyable and confident things are advancing on a number of fronts and that GDR have the right partners to deliver value above the current market cap
BB, it’s the first time a vaccine of these types will have been used, first in line anyone?! They’re talking about giving it to the elderly first, I can’t help think there’s a reason other than they’re the most vulnerable.... a man made virus to kill a natural virus, mmmm that sounds like a good idea. Why has this approach never been approved before? Because it was all still research, C19 has allowed these companies to fast track an experimental process in the guise of doing good... my opinion
I agree BB, I think there’s a lot of ulterior motives going on here, whilst approvals are missing people who knock will knock. They’ll be gone shortly. I believe in Genedrive and the GDR BOD, David will
come good very shortly...