RE: Irene21 Aug 2018 10:30
Irene, thanks for the clarification of COS....I thought it may have been a typo at first. Nonetheless, most points I do agree on.
However, although I agree with the meaning of transformational, it really isn't good enough as a definition when put into context concerning CERP. Transformational could be from 500 bopd, to 2000bopd.....all it takes is one sucsessful well, or several and happy days....it may go wrong, as well as it could all go right.
VSAs opinion bears no weight on my thinking, any well drilled on the planet risks the same potential fate, regardless of all the surveys that may have been gathered. But being near Venezuela aligns us with the saying....gold is most probable where gold is found, as is oil. Take my back garden for example, I have never found any traces of oil in my back garden, so it's highly likely that I will not find any if I went drilling.
If I went drilling in Saudi Arabia, I would have better odds, but not necessarily a guarantee. To say 10% chance of commercial sucsess is just playing safe, rather than saying 100%....it's the location that SWP is in that gives credence to any success.
Personally, I think we are all guessing, you, me and VSA.....the surveys give us more detail, but not precise detail. COS IMO is just a safe measure of probability used by VSA. Let's not forget, that same COS that would have been for the offshore wells that have had sucsess too....but they hit a target, and I bet it was a low COS previous to drilling as well.