Thanks for that ExtC (shame i had to read through another 200 posts of nothing to find it)
So, "The airline has nine slot pairs at London Heathrow and in the summer uses them to offer a daily return service from Zagreb and weekly flights from Rijeka and Split. In the winter the slots are used solely from and to Zagreb."
-------So definitively, 9 slot pairs is literally 9 flights in and 9 flights out a week-------
Also, "As the timetable information, above, from OAG Schedules Analyser shows, Croatia Airlines is selling four 10am arrival and 10:50pm departure slots (Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday and Sunday) and one 11am arrival 11:50am departure slot (Wednesday)." --------These slots have the average value of $3.9m (£3m)-------
From my research the other day Flybe average around 6/7 flights a DAY - so lets call it 40 flights a WEEK (so 40 slot pairs).
Some of those were early morning which we know from the OmanAir sale are the most valuable. Some are midday so can be valued as above. Some are evening so lets assume they are the least valuable because of time restrictions etc.
I will estimate/guess that a fair average would be £3m (to fair???) so 40 slot pairs at £3m is £120m... not bad.
Additionally, I noted these croatia slots were sold to Delta for transatlantic flights..
Talking of big losses... I checked my bottom drawer earlier and I have some TRP shares... at an average of £17.04 :-/ hahaha.
Based on share price performance I don’t think anyone can disagree with you. Take a step back and look at the bigger picture. MOD have been incredibly slow with news flow, this has effected both companies SP. Behind the scenes however a great deal has been happening in bots and it is my belief that the MOD London listing will bring a change in fortunes for MOD and ultimately MTR. ATB.
As announced in the trading update on 17th October 2018, in line with other airlines, Flybe has seen a slowdown of revenue growth in Q3 leading to a revision to expected H2 performance. As a result of this, and the associated increase in card acquirer risk, the Board has prepared a revised cash flow forecast and applied appropriate sensitivities to this forecast. This cash flow forecast includes several cash generating transactions over the next 12 months to provide further liquidity in addition to that arising from ordinary business trading. The Directors believe these transactions will provide sufficient liquidity for the Group’s needs and to manage potential consequences of downside risks as noted above. The financing actions range from short-term actions that are currently at an advanced stage and relate to the sale or sale and leaseback of assets or disinvestment of non-core elements of the business, and further medium-term plans that are being prepared to be transacted during 2019. FLYBE ARE NOT GOING BUST!!!!
Brown-dog - my thoughts entirely. My guess is three or four of these accounts are all the same person - you can tell by looking at their posting history and style of writing.
Scully - stop replying to it, you respond, they reply with more lies, you tell them they're lying, they say you're ramping blah blah blah. They want you to do that so the BB gets clogged and the actual facts and research got lost in the quagmire of nonsense.
Flybe ARE NOT GOING BUST an offer of 15p WILL NOT BE ACCEPTED. The fact that nobody can tell me why these facts are wrong says it all, just continuous subtle comments and outright lies.
An old school investor would not behave like you are. Neither would a five year old for that matter. I’m not even going to bother commenting on your 3.3p comment. I don’t believe anything I read on these forums, anything. Not unless it can be proven. A poster a few years ago was proven to be telling lies about having cancer to garner sympathy. What a sad world we live in. That’ll do for me today.
Subtle ;-)
And because EZY are interested and because of the aforementioned LHR slots BA/IAG will be on the defensive irrespective of the BACF tie up rationale.
Dude, chill out on the opening price. IMO - It won’t be 15p, it’ll be 9p. It could well go a little lower as I would think Aberforth have another 2-3million to sell. There is however appetite on the buyers side from PIs, as has been proved this weekend there is a significant upside in this stock whether that be from takeover/merger or from Flybe continuing its recovery. Maybe take a break from the board scully, leave the sad acts to it. Anyone just shouting 5p 5p with no basis is totally ignored anyway. Not one of them has been able to given a genuine reason for what they say. Enjoy your Sunday.
Three recommendations at 10 o clock on a Saturday... does make you wonder, I’m going for one sad act with nothing better to do. Scully maybe best to leave them to it and just counter with facts. Share price will take care of itself. Home time!!!!!!
ExtC thanks for that. And yes that makes total sense, so however we look at it it’s clear they are worth something considerably more than what I originally thought.
So. Different times different days but overall 0845, 0945,1120, 1450, 1805, 1820, 2020, 2045.
However from the SAS article "Last year Kenya Airways sold its one and only Heathrow slot to Oman Air for no less than US$75 million. Oman Air now uses the slot for its overnight Muscat-London service which arrives early the following morning – a peak time for long-haul arrivals at Heathrow which explains the hefty fee Oman Air was prepared to pay.
NOTE: "overnight Muscat-London service which arrives early the following morning" which would mean according to Oman website is the 0555 ARR and then the 0825 DEP.
The flights at the top are DEP. The arrival times of the Flybe slots include 0620, 0705 and 0855.
Average value is still going to be good if the 0555 is worth $75m / £58m.
For balance the turnaround times for long haul stuff is obvious going to be a lot different so not sure how that would work.
It does show however the LHR slots are worth more than what some (myself included) have attributed.
Fair point ExtChief. Will keep digging..
Another possibility. Just not sure how the rest of the route network would fit into it.. obviously they could then offload the bits they don’t want... I am personally looking at this from both angles tho and so it’s not something I would like to see. At least with AirFrance/KLM they would (maybe.. hopefully..) see some purpose in the none CDG/AMS routes. BACF my preferred bit I suppose the LHR slots would then be under the same completion rules...
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/10075367/Flybe-sells-Gatwick-slots-to-easyJet-for-20m.html
25 slots were sold for £20m. So pro rata 6 slots is £4.8m. BUT that was Gatwick and that was 2013.
https://www.businesstraveller.com/business-travel/2017/03/30/sas-sells-heathrow-slots-75-million/
2 slots at $75m (£58m) also sold a single slot for $60m in 2015!!!!
https://www.routesonline.com/news/29/breaking-news/270502/flybe-gains-access-to-heathrow-with-scotland-remedy-slots/
Flybe will have 45 flights a week (25 EDI and 20 ABZ) The SAS article "states SAS has the sixth largest number of Heathrow slots. Its current tally of 19 slots will, after this particular pair of slots are transferred, therefore be reduced to 17 (slot) pairs." So my assumption is that the slots are daily slots? Flybe have 45 flights, so 6/7 a day?
Lets say each slot is worth £30m (they are daytime slots) 7 slots are therefore worth circa £180m???
Looks like i was totally wrong!!!!
Thoughts??
I think its a valid point, I don't have the facts to say 100% but yes it is my understanding that that is correct . Not the main reason for a takeover IMO but clearly they are extremely valuable to any suitor.
I have just read through nearly 200 posts on here!!!!! The vast majority complete tripe, including information that has been posted several times before. The bashers are running the BB down to the point relevant information is being lost. It does appear there is either a group at work or one very sad person - who keeps contradicting themselves. What a waste of a weekend..
TAKEOVER.
BA/IAG/BACF - Do people actually realise that BA/IAG own BA cityflyer???? THAT is why BA/IAG are a potential suitor. And for myself and all the crew I have spoken to they are the best fit for all stakeholders (employees and shareholders) It will also be a good deal for BACF, similar fleets and similar routes. It will allow them to consolidate at LCY as well as gain a genuine foothold in the regional market as opposed to just being LCY centered. I personally would prefer to see some sort of merger - this evenings reading, but a buyout is more likely.
Easyjet - I don't buy it and wouldn't really want it. This rumour surfaces itself every few years as anyone involved with Flybe would know. It would however help Flybe and their routes in relation to competition with RyanAir, particularly as i believe Easy and Norwegian already have an understanding. It's just a question as whether Easyjet would want anything to do with the current fleet Flybe operate and what that would mean for the actual regional flying.
Stobart - Obvious seeing as they have already had a bid turned down.
AirFrance/KLM - COW obviously has contacts at AirFrance. There are some synergies in terms of regional stuff plus significant feeder traffic to AMS/CDG with Flybe already having codeshare deals. They also have masses of cash.
GreyBull - Please no. Can see the benefit to them with their MAEL holding and the fact that Flybe are there single biggest customer.
Airport owners Rigby / Peel - Probably not, but who knows.
GARBAGE.
Flybe going bust - IT ISN'T GOING TO HAPPEN. In year or two's time yes it's a possibility, but not tomorrow and not next month. The share price is on its arse because Aberforth are selling down their position. Flybe is less then 0.1% of its small cap portfolio, they are abiding by their portfolio rules. If they know something why don't Hoskings or T.Rowe?
15p takeover price a best - COMPLETE NONSENSE. Not in a million years will that be accepted. Why would it? The turn around plan is being implemented. The fleet will continue to be reduced and importantly the ridiculous 195 deal will be over. (stupid management signing that deal - i have my own thoughts on that...£££)
Julian, market cap is based on share price alone (share price x shares in issue) alas the share price is based on much more than just “what the company is worth” sentiment plays a major part, hence the reason people spam and bash on public forums ;-) The sale IMO was to show the market, that the BD are in control. That or a precondition of the MERGER..
Without checking... If I recall correctly they have made full year profits before several times (mainly due to the BA connect acquisition and subsequent payments) they have made a profit for H1 2018 as they did last year. The main issue is the stupid and expensive 195 lease deals of which are slowly being ended.
Going to disagree on this one on the basis that there have been a lot of these trades the last few days and abercorth continue to reduce. Worked sell for me. Alas makes no real difference. ATB.