The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Scot, it was not my intention to insult you or refer to you in any way with regard to the price of a barrel of oil and Iran attacking Israel. The intention was to point out that the price of oil, which I think will be affected by the attack, does in no way reflect my thoughts on the many who will lose their life in this new hostility and should not by others as it would make them look mercenary. The fact that you are obsessed with the market valuing PANR oil at a lesser rate than 88E and therefor looked like a legitimate is not my fault. That said, if I offended you in any way then I of course apologise.
Scot, I see that even after this said offence you are still posting about the oil value difference. I have not even read the rns but I assume that it is good news or you would not be here. Just woke up zzzzz
Wow Adnauseam, that was some read. It has been many years since I had to worry about sin and cos. Obviously way beyond my capabilities to follow that article, especially as I have no experience regarding oil industry. Always liked maths but that was just too much ;) Good luck anyone attempting to create a model for 88E with this.
Rabito, we are all using assumptions, estimates, guesswork, as until we know facts we are all looking at the black ball. PANR are no better, further down the development route but still guestimating. Even with assumed reservoir size and $ per barrel no oil has left the ground for commercial use. I have never compared both companies like for like as it has always been stated that PANR had bigger reserves, but 88E are in a good position for farm out, subject to good 2nd test results etc. Whether PANR are heading for development or not is irrelevant to 88E success as I'm sure we are on different paths.
MMO, I see the anger in your posts and it can't be healthy for you. You do not come across as someone who suffers fools lightly, and it's difficult to argue with someone who can use estimates to create a reasonable argument. That said, I also have had issues with that type of post and in trying to combat it I just look ignorant or as Scot says just lying. I never intentionally lie but interpretation is a fine line. Unless you are 100% sure of facts you can never win. Best to agree or disagree and move on. It is all a learning curve for me.
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Older, I appreciate that PANR are further in development and use that to achieve $5-10 figure. My using that figure was for best case as I do not expect 88E to be developing, it will be moved on to someone capable who has deeper pockets. I noted that 88E are not prepared for agreements with anyone who is not in a position to move the lease forward. I think that says much thought has gone into the farm out process for Phoenix.
As usual I thank anyone who is prepared to educate and as long as the information is not taken at face value no harm. MMO does appear in the most to question such posts and that is a positive as to outsiders we get to see both sides. I don't always understand the language of oil but I have gained by being on this board.
Chrisev1, even if Older's figures are correct and assuming PANR's own figures of recoverable oil being $5-10 per barrel that still leaves $410M in the ground. Add the other flowable reservoirs and 88E are sitting on a very large payday.
It may be time to reflect on what we have not what we want. Roll on the 2nd result and analysis.
Wasn't aware of PANR figures so appreciate that. It also explains why no tests expected by 88E in those reservoirs. It makes me more invested in the awaiting results as that would be the catalyst for share movement not the potential from the other drilled targets.
On the note of WW111 post, a very busy night by Iran and depending on the response it may push the price of oil. It also may be too late for millions of people. Very sad reflection on those only concerned with the price of a barrel.
Good luck all here and abroad.
Older, an extension by definition cannot be the same size, however I do see the depreciation part of your analysis. Can I just say that this 1 BOPD well may be the reason they are placing 2 new as this will remediate the slowdown. As far as I know there are still 1M Barrels available for lifting and it would be prudent to try and recover as much as possible.
Can I also ask a genuine question on a reply you gave to another, where does the 29% come from?
Older, a simplistic view but maybe a layman's view/analogy, if I pay to put up an extension on my house I would expect the value of my house to increase by at least what it cost to build the extension. "Creative stuff, moving expense/spend into asset value" is exactly my point, nothing wrong with that as my extension has increased the value of my house by more than the cost, and to add to that more people are interested as it is now a larger property ;)
Thank you Older, always appreciate your input and corrections. I am aware that they are investing more into Longhorn as this is the asset that 88E expect to cover costs going forward. They have a plan, they have funds in place and I am confident that by year end they will be hitting 600+BOPD.
Scot, I am not responsible for any other posters on this board, especially holders, and you may want to listen to yourself as the main theme of others on replying to you is that nobody cares what you think.
I maybe see you differently as I am prepared to listen and learn, but I think anyone on this board who makes financial decisions based on anything either of us say would be foolish, that goes for me also as I would consider myself pretty stupid to listen to a stranger then buy/sell on the strength of what they say, especially as you so rightly point out that I do not have the knowledge and that some of what you say is guesswork.
I see that you are still stuck on the market valuation of a barrel of oil, please let it go and maybe just maybe some will listen to you without ridiculing or insulting you.
My opinion is that LONGHORN will be exactly what 88E wants it to be, a cash cow for future leases and exploration.
I also think Phoenix will not be developed by 88E but will be farmed out with a non working % retained and a lump sum. IMO
2B or not 2B that is the question
My apologies to all on this board for encouraging Scot, I didn't realise I needed so many corrections. And he didn't even follow up on my suggesting Texas was actually making money not losing ;) I am happy to call Longhorn a cash cow ;) 16.02
Not sure why you think Texas is losing money, it may not be at the point expected but it is still turning over and as management said it is there to cover lease costs and exploration. And, said this a few times, by year end they will have a further two wells working toward a target of 600+BOPD which even at 75% is a good investment. $5M loan in place should it need support for remedial or new works.
I couldn't find how much PANR are making but going by their p/e figure (can I use it now?) of minus $250+M I guess they are struggling along on their $8M cash reserves whilst still paying the bond and capital.
Thank you for correcting all my errors ;)
Just watched a previously posted video, and noted the comments about possible farm out. They did not want to speak with potentials prior to flow test as they did not think they would get the right offers, but from what he said he sounds confident of getting better offers after the flow test.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y6F6VtxGwR4
Not sure there is one chrisev, we had the video from the company showing flame from first test and a roadside pic of the first but nothing since. Annoying that there was doubt about the picture being real and the company holding onto that video when it could have confirmed.