Member Info for Tamovv

Congrats Stevo,

I was very happy to seeing the net debt figure, before I realized the Cash tax payment Date was after the reporting Date ;)

Kraken/Stevo,

Happy to join your net debt. guessing game for Wednesday.

Let my try as follows:

- 7,5 mboe sales (Stevos 7m boe are rather pessimistic)

- revenue 540 mUSD

- H1 opex 225 mUSD (simple half of 2025 guidance)

- cash tax 100 mUSD (see official guidance, this will equal to most of the 2025 cash tax burden)

-> CFFO (after tax) 215 mUSD

To calculate the "true" operational performance, we should deduct Magnus profit share and lease (reduced from April)

- 24 mUSD Magnus profit share (price and volume adj. vs. 2024), no idea if this is actually payed on a quarterly basis

- 21 mUSD Q1+ 6,5 mUSD Q2 lease (reduced by 70% from Q2) = 27,5 mUSD for H1

-> OCF (adj.) 163,5 mUSD

- interest payments should be 35 mUSD

- ABEX 30 mUSD (simple 50% of management guidance)

=> about 100 mUSD before CAPEX (which is the tricky part)

Overall 2025 capex guidance is 190 mUSD, but they pointed to "extensive H1 2025 capital activity", so lets assume 60% of the FY spent to occur in H1, which equals 114 mUSD.

19 mUSD net debt increase at 30th April was already announced. This should have worsened because of the 100 mUSD cash tax payment in June (hard to fully compensate for it by operational performance, so kinda unfair to expect a debt reduction is H1 given the cash tax timing).

So my best guess is less than the 50 mUSD net debt build Stevo is expected but certainly no debt. reduction either. Lets say 410-430 mUSD net debt. on 30th June, but maybe below 400 mUSD if they opt to report net debt. for the 31st August 2025.

Maybe, thats also one of the reasons for the late reporting. They might now report net debt for 31st Aug. to have had two months more of operations to work against the deb. builtup.

However, I hope they will update the outlook and bring those good news, they were not allowed to communicate during the last call (takeover code forecasting restrictions). They sounded pretty optimistic about their free cash flow potential to organically finance capex needs. This implies their ability to reduce net debt, even if they decide do don´t do so, but rather execute on organic investment options.

I expect a positive sp reaction based on improved guidance, but unfortunately no M&A announcement (yet). 11,3 pence is a bargain (in my humble unprofessional opinion - no advice).

PS: Stevo, I am afraid the "delay" in the announcement date was caused by the 26 Aug 2025 Indonesia RNS. I assume they wanted to have this one out before communicating the Q2 reporting date (the reason for this being rather late with end of Sept., might be like a 4 weeks minimum announcement period? If I recall correctly, the 24th Sept. was communicated 1-2 days immediately after the Indonesia RNS, which is pretty exact one month in advance)

The YE-dividend tranche is already pre-announced and with o&g prices holding up strongly as of now, there is no reason for them to skip it.

Stevo,

glad to See you back (especially with some interest for ENQ).

Mostly agree with your Assessment as usual.

The only Point I am slightly more optimistic and thats why I am already heavilie Long ENQ is the following:

Oil supply surplus Q4-25 to Q2/3-26 is very likeky for informed people. Question is when does it materialise (First weakness signs are showing already). However, with ENQ I am hoping for two short term catalysts

A) UK tax Regime change

B) M & A (Yes, we have been all waiting quite a while now)

Timing wise, a and b could happen any time by the autumn budget (delayed to end Nov as far as i know). M & A might be afterwards to have clarity First.

But for me, despite high oil Price sensivity, enq should Profit from every possible tax scenario:

Improved) high upside as a highly leveraged small cap

Unchanged) consolidation to Speed up again (for example: SQZ/ENQ deal Not off the table, see recent SQZ Call , or Waldorf to give up, etc.)

So as usual I am more afraid of missing upside whilst afraid of lower oil prices. Hopefully we will enjoy some meaningful pushes North before giving back some gains (before from end 2026 Energy structually to explode, See Shift in yesterdays IEA Outlook).

Comparing ENQ to basically all other U&K oil & Gas stocks 2025, I sense a Performance gap to be filled (Hopefully from next wednesday. ENQ seemed restricted by UK takeover code last call and wasnt allowed to say Many positive things - haha, Yes I noted I Sound „naive“)

Is there Any fixed Date by now? Their official calendar still says „September“?

Just re-visited the call:

"This is an investment in a public upstream oil and gas company, that does not require any further disclosure from us, so we are not commenting on it"

No explicit mention of a UK listing, so I am afraid options are wide :(

Thanks londoner! As always, highly appreciate your input.

To be honest, I was not aware of that 3% treshhold, thought it´s maybe a 10% treshhold, so they could have bought 9,9%.

Okay, maybe I have to widen my thinking and also consider potential other targets, thanks again!

The more I think about it, the more i like my idea. Just to share some further colour of my reasoning:

- Ithaca flagged west of shetland as key growth area for them and the UK energy security as a whole

- so its not only Cambo, also Tornado and potential near field developments

- one analyst questioned their rather low capex spend for Rosebank with drilling due soon (maybe they want to do this from a restructured legal entity already to potentially use to be acquired tax losses for Rosebank too)

- ENQ tax losses could massively improve the tax profile of their west of shetland play as a whole

- why would they buy 10% on the open market? Maybe as a poison pill to shield against other ENQ M&A plays being discussed (obv. SQZ, maybe harbour UK)

- ITH is keen on adding one more region to get international exposure (= ENQ would come with some nice Asian exposure as a side benefit)

Just added to my ENQ position (no investment advice, could be dead-wrong with my idea).

Ithaca disclosed a 23,5 mUSD investment in a UK O&G company in todays results (balance sheet on page 24 of the trading update). They decided to not fruther comment on an analysts respective question, haha. I need to wait for the recording to be uploaded, in order to re-visit their answer again.

Think Stevo is reading here (again) - I am of course happy if others could answer as well.

Just thinking out loud: Would it be possible, from a UK tax law pov, to buy ENQ (ITHs war chest shows up to 2bn liquity) and organisationally place cambo below the to be aquired ENQ legal entityy, in order to allow those future Cambo profits to flow through ENQ targeting the immense tax loss position? Since its pre FID, moving around the 100% operated license should be possible cheaply (just my assumption when comparing it to German law). The capex spend could then be done afterwards.

Moooore,

Possible range is 0,08-0,12 GBP,

My best guess is 0,10.

Sorry, seems Like I have reached max. characters early.

Question was, if you Can Report anything with regards to June and Q2 Production (NSTA figures were published on Friday if I recall correctly)?

I intended to post this earlier, but work kept me busy. Would have seemed cleverer dated Thursday 31st July with brent at 83:

Good Question!

To begin with, I believe they are both undervalued (as many energy stocks). I am currently not invested in HBR, whereas ITH is by far my biggest portfolio position.

Both companies chose to deal with the disastrous UK O&G related fiscal development completely differently. Whereas HBR chose to diversify, ITH has taken a path of regional consolidation. For now ITH was more “successful” if you compare pure sp performance. Morally, the path Linda has chosen (to prepare for a potential good bye), can be perceived as the correct reaction to the political nonsense everybody is facing…

Financial comparison (ITH vs. HBR):

- Number of shares quite similar (doesn´t matter per se, info just provided to calc div. per share) with 1,69b vs. 1,53b

- Dividend 500 mUSD vs. 455 mUSD, dividend per share 0,29 USD vs. 0,29 USD (does not include for non-equal divi distr)

- EVs 7,3b GBP vs. 3,4 GBP

Share price developments will (beside oil & gas prices) depend on UK fiscal decisions to be made between now and early November (Autumn budget). ITH should benefit stronger from positive decisions, since they are a UK north sea pure play with high direct production exposure and additional development potential (i.e. Cambo).

Thanks to the global diversification strategy, HBR has developed from a quite similar operating model (UK pure play) to a much more diversified global active player. With development opportunity in Mexica/Argentina (some people could argue the UK has proven worse…). In a worst case scenario (Labor does not move a bit, which is highly unlikely in my personal opinion given all the consultations during H1-25) HBR could end up selling their UK exposure (to Ithaca and Enquest for example), ending up a non-UK play in the end.

From a macro perspective, people I trust and follow see oil prices potentially under pressure for another 3-4 quarters. Inventory builds to start from Q4 after cooling season subsides. Next oil bull run to begin latest end of 2025, when the broad market realizes that there is no further growth to be expected from US shale, but global oil demand will continue to grow. In the meanwhile oil supposed to be rangebound between 60 and 70 USD/boe (could start falling soon, if Trump does not get serious with secondary sanctions on buyers of Russian oil)

My personal investment strategy looks like:

- I´ve sold HBR as a “hedge” against falling oil prices from now (brent at 73 USD/boe)

- Would start adding HBR from 1,80 GBP (maybe if brent gets down to 60ish)

- ITH IPOd with 11% dividend yield, which implies 2,00 GBP per share, so at close to 1,80 GBP we are approaching an okay level and had some run since 1,00-1,10 GBP absolutely overseld levels.

PS: Londoner, I intended to work myself through the NSTA numbers this weekend but didn´t find the time. Do you have anything to

Hi Londoner,

Appreciate, as usual.

Yes, I do remember the mention of a 1/3 + 2/3 split as well. Must have been before the ENI merger, if I recall correctly. So hoped with a new major party on board, there is some room for discussion.

One third of 500m USD equals 0,08 GBP, so same as last year’s September installment. I am still optimistic, that they opt to top that, whilst I agree, 250 mUSD or 0,12 GBP/share is a rather optimistic stance ;)

To argue in favor of a larger payment, I understood that the 500 mUSD can completely come from the "organic earnings power" (CFFO after tax) this time, without touching the fourth column of their respective slide in their presentation "evolve". Thus, we might see two payments without the December one. Of course you can still be right with the 1/3 + 2/3 split. I don´t have any obligation against it. The last thing we want to see is negative press about "increased dividends of a major UK O&G player" before the Autumn budget. So my dividend can wait as long as it helps the government to present a sensible outcome (w.r.t. taxation).

As mentioned earlier, I am from Germany, so far from an expert in local UK politics. Seen some rumors about instability around the chancellor with risk of even more left-minded successors. My JOG shares came back quite significantly from recent heights. I see them as an indicator for optimism in a regime change before the regular end date. I can recommend a recent interview of Serica´s CFO who did a great job phrasing things in my opinion.

ITH is quite active on Linkedin, so regarding Captain, I have noticed Yaniv and Odin visited the Flotel recently. Glad to see they are focusing on that asset now. I recall one analyst question during the last call, where he mentioned than captain didn´t always fully come up to expectations. Hope they can make the polymer program a success story, but 32 kboed as you´ve described below sounds interesting!

Looking forward to the NSTA release end of next week.

Hi Londoner,

Same question as every quarter: Are there any NSTA production numbers for June (Q2-25) we can compare against Q1?

H1 results are due 20th August. I do remember an earlier date around 3rd/4th Aug., which was reset within 48h, but I might be mistaken - or there is any deeper reasoning behind, so they decided to postpone by 2 weeks in order to come up with something interesting before...as they did before the last two earnings dates ;)

I look very much forward to the dividend announcement. A decision for 250 mUSD would hammer this years 500m target in stone.

PS: I noted and appreciated your posts on the ENQ board (since yesterday ENQ is my 2nd biggest portfolio position, after ITH). Not sure if you can answer and/or if Stevo is reading here, but could ENQ taxlosses be of immediate use for ITH, if they opt to buy ENQ, or would this require and kind of reverse takeover, which could be challenging comparing both companies in size, haha. On the other hand, does a later (I am not an expert in UK taxation, but recall a 3-5 years lock period) use-date for potentially acquired ENQ tax losses maybe not be as bad as one would assume, given ITHs existing tax losses shielding for another about 4 years, before new losses need to be in place. However, normally I am afraid UK NS M&A will remain muted over the summer before the autumn budget.

*H1-25 due 20th August, sorry.

Hi,

Platforms usually use cum. LTM dividend, which was 400m usd. 500m usd is Managements future guidance (however I am very certain it will materialize).

500m is 125% of 400m. So multiplying platforms 11,7% x 1,25 you get pretty close to your 15% calc.

H1 figures are due early August, 3rd/4th cant remember it detail. If they announce the interim close to 250m, markets can be much more certain 500m will be payed out in the end.

Do you guys think it might be related to the very low cash offer for Deltic from yesterday? JOG is certainly in a stronger position (more cash, but not endless). So the Deltic case might have some impact on Mr. Markets view on JOG.

Not useful, if not even a "bad analysis". Not a single word wrt. the EPL. Dividend safety was measured against net profit (which is low, given the EPL), whereas CFFO (after tax) is high (given tax loss position). Comparison against Chevron and Exxon, haha, who could have thought of other peers...

Can´t read it, could somebody please share (in a legal manner if possible...).

What love to agree, but ENQ has relatively high OPEX (incl. lease) and oil share of production. Thus, relative to peers, the recovery in brent positively effected ENQ (which was also the reason for the strong downturn beside the called-off merger obviously). Spreads and longer time brent futures improved, so ENQ did. Enquest functions like a leveraged call on brent (given their higher oil exposure and leverage ratio compared to SQZ for example).

On the other hand, in my opinion, thats a positive. Any kind of M&A announcement and or EPL-amendment should add on the winnings we´ve made recently.