Member Info for Tallchad64

Great questions. Firstly Sprott are buying from the spot market, about 15m lbs comes into the spot market each year from various sources, the largest being BHP Olympic dam. I think that supply has been bought. My own take is that the very aggressive increase in SPUT price and, from what I see, modest issuance of new trust units, points to they are having major problems getting supply from the 30 day market already. Issuance of new units is required in order that the receipts from new issuance can be used to purchase U. My understanding is that only receipts from new units can be used to purchase.
The psychology of sellers will be to hold as you say. So I suspect SPUT are now looking at buying out on the 3m delivery curve, but they will find nothing as the only producers are committed to fulfill contracts. I love your idea of interrmediating SPUT with KAP, does anyone have insight to the available quantities and contract terms?

Yes. Closing spot = around a 328p YCA NAV so expect a gap up and possibly then some, from momentum and the relative value YCA offers vs SPUT. That's my view anyway

Pretty sure Kopernik were the biggest holders in UPC. Seems they like the better value YCA offers.

£3.50 would equate to around $45 spot. So about $9 above today's $36. Not out of the question. Will be very interesting to see how today's very significant volume in SPUT impacts on the spot market today and that will give us a clue. I'm watching the numerco website.

Spurt up in the spot price yesterday means yesterday's closing price of 265 is a 4.6% discount to NAV. Expect at least a 10-15p rise on opening today and who knows what action in the spot price today. It is clear that SPUT is buying on immediate delivery which will have maximal impact.

Spot on MTM. Nuclear driven electrification and Hydrogen are the key technologies to support decarbonisation of transportation (as well as heating which is often overlooked)

He's a bit biased, but yeah

Hi Sea7, yes that's understood, but a rising spot price should push both YCA and UPC up together. I wonder if the market anticipates that the premium on UPC, post-Sprott conversion, will continue or even widen? My reading was that the conversion may be more likely to cause UPC's premium to reduce.

Scratching my head here. YCA is currently a <1% premium to NAV compared with UPC which is 7% premium. Cant work out why, its not currency related (UPC is C$ so both have currency risk vs USD) and not really because one is more liquid than the other as they have similar market caps. Thoughts anyone?

Hi Will, haven't looked at this for a while, but I view this as follows, a little simplistically perhaps and I paraphrase and putting aside arrangement costs etc.... If the inventory is legally sold, but held in storage by the company on behalf of the legal owner (the SPV), with an agreement that the company will sell the inventory over time and participate in the sales proceeds. Sales proceeds to the extent that these consist of the valuation of the inventory held by the SPV shall be paid to the SPV, and to the extent that they are over and above will accrue to the company. So how do you recognise that on the balance sheet of the company? Well I'd say it doesn't appear on the balance sheet, but instead as a note to the accounts along the lines of 'during the year the company sold £x inventory to a 3rd party which appears in the revenue for the period.
The company has an agreement with the 3rd party to hold and sell the inventory on behalf of the 3rd party, including a participation in the sales proceeds. During the year £y of such inventory was sold and the company participation in the sales proceeds net of fees was £z which appears in the revenue for the period. At the balance sheet date, the £(x-y) of unsold inventory, owned by the 3rd party, does not appear on the balance sheet of the company as it is not owned by the company.

In effect, as year by year rolls forward such an approach would be applied in the notes and expanded to show the opening inventory, new inventory sold to 3rd party, inventory sold on behalf of the 3rd party, and closing inventory, with additional notes to show the fees and sales revenue from participating in sales of inventory to customers. Sort of a shadow stock account that links to the p&l, but doesn't actually appear on the balance sheet.

Tonight. Wouldn't want to be out of this over the weekend

Bargain prices now, the NAV is 250. People have got to buy this drop

Actually, sort of answering my own question here, the demand for this placing demonstrates there are investors out there that prefer the risk/reward of YCA vs U miners that have run ahead a little bit. An increase of 16% in the share base also bodes well for liquidity, and makes YCA more investable so could actually drive up the premium to NAV which currently sits at around 7% for YCA and 14% for UPC. After this raise YCA will have a MCAP of around $570m compared with $710m for UPC so YCA looks better value.

What is the benefit of this? Do the maths and the dilutive effect on the SP of 25m discounted shares, buying uranium at v close to current spot, may be around 3p by my reckoning. I'm an investor, and not meaning to be negative, but just keen to understand the rationale for this. Perhaps increasing market cap by 16% is a benefit?

Surprised not to see a discussion on this board. What do folks think the price action will be today and over the coming few days?

Any macro gold folks on this board watching this development? Trying to understand the facts and timelines - but I understand Basel III upgrades gold to a risk free asset and furthermore requires that this may only apply if the gold is in an allocated account or physically held. Paper contracts and unallocated gold, in contrast, require 85% capital backing. The impact of this on comex action, and gold leasing, would be profound. I believe it goes live with EU banks end of June, and (I think) also US banks a few days before. It goes live in UK from January next year. If you believe that central banks need to recapitalise, then they would have every incentive to allow the gold price to appreciate substantially. The fear is that EU has 10k tons, US 8k tons, but UK has diddly squat. So it will f*** over the UK into the bargain which for the anti Brexiteers in the EU and US dems is a convenient side effect. Thoughts anyone?

The conversion to a trust happens in July, subject to a 2/3rds majority shareholder vote (scheduled 7th July) with the application to list on the NYSE Arca to be submitted within six months of the conversion to a trust.

It wouldn't surprise me if Blackrock has a risk policy for small caps not to hold more than 5% of any company as a firm for liquidity purposes. That would explain why it is bumping in and out around that limit

It wouldn't surprise me if Blackrock has a risk policy for small caps not to hold more than 5% of any company as a firm for liquidity purposes. That would explain why it is bumping in and out around that limit

Are they new on the scene?