Member Info for Tallchad64

This also happened back in August I think, it is one of the reasons I now prefer SPUT, it is less volatile and the mechanism of action means the price tracks closer to the NAV. YCA was a quite a premium and this has been wiped out by the placing.

Wow. Another $550m to be taken off the market. My understanding is that Cameco and Kazatomprom are also committed to buying more themselves from the spot market, I thought this year. It really is building nicely

There is some erroneous data out there, numerco is the reliable source

Chill its $46.5 bucks

The framework agreement has an option to purchase $100m per year through to 2027. Has anyone kept count to the amount this year? I think we are there or thereabouts with the $65m purchased in August and there was some earlier in the year.

Exactly MoreThanMe. SPUT should be far less volatile hereon in, particularly on the upside, due to the dampening effect of issuing more units.

Thats right, SPUT can only issue new units when it is >1% premium. New units are sold for cash. Cash is then available to buy Uranium. What you need to bear in mind however is that units can be issued consistently during the day, and in issuing units, buyer demand is absorbed and the share price doesn't really rise. So a fairly flat share price may be disguising quite alot of new issuance and uranium buying. Yesterday seemed to be one of those days, a lacklustre share price performance day, but 680,000 units were issued and $9m cash raised used to buy 200,000lbs (cash balance fell from $8m to $7m. So quite a decent day, at this rate that's 1m lbs a week, which is 50m lbs a year and about 3x the rate at which new supply usually hits the spot market (15m lbs a year)

My reading is that we are in a bit of a pause for breath. The imponderable is the pace and timing at which flows into SPUT will recommence. Heavy inflows make SPUT a forced buyer in the spot market which pushes up the spot price. In recent days the flows have been a gentler, and buying subdued and probably private investor driven. At some point we need a whale or two to get involved, and they will be wanting to take positions in the equities ahead of launching a bombardment on SPUT. They will be looking carefully at timing their trade, hoping for a lower entry point, but aware they aren't going to be the only whale waiting, and that the fundamentals playing out means the clock is ticking. That would be my take. Very interesting times

Another way of looking at this is that the market is foreseeing a dip in the bid price to $44 but this is unlikely in my view as Sprott isnt allowed to sell.

Yep a 7% discount. This should be higher on the basis of the arbitrage opportunity with SPUT if nothing else.

So current price of 365 at current exchange rate of 0.7244 and spot of $50.38 is a 5.4% discount to NAV of 386. A bargain.

Excellent SGD27, I concur and have adjusted my model.

Surprised this hasn't gone up more on the open. 365 is 7% discount to NAV and a bargain. YCA and the uranium story is still quite under the radar for UK investors I think.

Apologies final spot $50.38. My calculation is this is a discount to NAV of 8.9% at current exchange rate 0.7243. So NAV is 392 or 35p above where we are now. If you take the bid of $49.75 this changes to 7.7%/387, 30p above where we are now. Interested to see others calculations if they disagree

Spot uranium closed at $51 today, so YCA is currently at a 10.1% discount to NAV. I expect a 30-40 point rise in the morning. Happy days ahead folks

Yep, expect YCA to rise to 350 this morning as it is at a 3.4% discount to NAV. Momentum may take it further, and then lets see what the US market open brings. Good times ahead

With the upsized ATM of $1.3bn now in place from today I believe, I suspect the sharp fall in price on opening is a sign that the trust is issuing new units. The cash raised by the trust from these new units will feed straight into spot market demand and higher prices. Anyone else have a take on this and my logic? I guess all will be revealed as the day pans out, we see spot price move and at the end of the day SPUT reports the numbers

Plus Cameco and Kazatomprom are also forced buyers!! And the price inelasticity of demand. Superb outlook. I've kitchen sinked it into this move

People are missing that the moves in spot aren't a result of SPUT purchasing, but due to the psychology of (a small number of) sellers to hold for a higher price, knowing money is flowing into SPUT who HAVE to buy. Forced buyers!! Its going to gap up when the $1.3bn ATM is live.

The $1.3bn ATM facility is not yet live, expected in the next day or two. Consequently SPUT hasn't purchased any U since last Thursday and yet the U price is up about $4 or so. In that time, the premium to NAV has climbed, and so SPUT find themselves in the position that they will have to issue significant new units to purchase U as soon as they are able to. I cant work out why they haven't already done that, so that they can build a cash position, but I presume there must be a cash limitation in the trust mandate? My reading is that the spot price has jumped purely in anticipation, not because of volume. When the volume comes this is going to fly