Member Info for SuperAl43

One word to repeat to yourself when the doubt is setting in...
STOCKPILING

Once a few orders come in, Synairgen’s revenue and therefore share price will look after itself.

Agreed RICH - success and EUA leads to Numis base case of c£10.

Where it goes from then depends on the quantity of pre-orders, success of competitors, pharmas looking (fighting each other?!) to partner with us or take us over. Which could be off the scale if it all falls into place.

I agree PhilG - some people think in % terms and think 100-200% is a lot. But if you estimate sales / revenue / NOI and apply a multiplier of anything like other biotech companies then you get an MCap of multiple billions. It may be that a big pharma buys us out before we hit a big big number but it will still be many multiples of the current share price. The only reason we are not higher now is the market is assuming vaccines will be more effective than they will in reality and/or applying a lower probability than we should have. I believe in the science and that the market has got the pricing wrong with regards to risk/reward so I am happy to pile in.

Tarka - I think they go hand in hand. Han**** and chums spaffing money left right and centre on their neighbours / landlords / own companies or random Spanish businessmen is criminal.

And they could easily have coughed up an £80m loan / advance to Synairgen (and same for other promising pharmas/biotechs) immediately after P2 results which would have avoided delays caused by seeking funding for P3. Much better use of money.

I agree with Doc and Matt with regards to the interpretation of what RM said. However, I think with the US involvement, I’m pretty sure plans are in place to ramp up to those sorts of levels pmjh and others are talking about when the first orders roll in...so we’re all right!

His favourite game is Kerplunk, he drives a Honda Civic, and he often frequents the Island of Lesbos.

Only that he is effing minted!

Always utilise ISAs first. Assuming you trust your wife of course. (That reminds me of that scene in Shawshank Redemption!)

I’d be surprised if Italy was not up and running already. I remember an interview from RM last year where he said Synairgen tried to get a phase 2 study up and running in Italy last March and they were close but it was just as the Italian healthcare system got swamped by the first wave. I imagine there would be good connections still alive and in place to get it up and running quickly.

My favourite bit...which is emphasising the point for for all the people in the media (and derampers like Happy last night) who overlook this very important aspect:
“...as it is a virus agnostic and, we believe, strain agnostic antiviral, which is easy to use in the hospital or home setting.”

Agreed Meelie - RM has played a blinder. He has done exceptionally well. Anyone that can’t see that has some other underlying issues that is clouding their judgement (Scinv / some idiot on ADVFN)

We have to remember that the Numis base case was applying a 70% chance of success - so once the various trials (fingers crossed) have proven successful that base case target price will be revised up towards £15. My personal view is that once this gets towards £10-15, and we look like we could kick on towards the bull case a big pharma will swoop in and buy us out for £20-25. That will suit me fine.

I should add - I don’t think it’ll affect how things are running for us now - all looking good...it’s just the principle of it which gets on my tits.

This is annoying. A bit of funding or a govt grant or any support in fact for Synairgen post The phase 2 results would have helped accelerate phase 3, and the treatment might potentially be out there already. Now Handjob is making a big deal out of accelerating other treatments when there is already one ON OUR FECKING DOORSTEP. What a bunch of cretins. Once we get EUA in the US - and the UK is still scrabbling around for other treatments- Handjob and chums will deserve all the stick they get.

Doh forgot the link!
https://www.kshb.com/news/coronavirus/kansas-city-covid-19-daily-briefing-for-feb-11

For those who didn’t watch this earlier...see the COVID update from the University of Kansas - well worth a watch from 10.45 in for 5-10 minutes. Draw your own conclusions re whether they have started recruiting already or they are just ready to go now...either way he seems confident the trials will be filled quickly and results will follow swiftly too.

I should have posted my previous message under the Kansas link. I think they have moved onto discussing other topics now but it will be well worth seeking out the video again and watching from the beginning when it is posted.

Well done to Geoff and Andy from the Uk who asked about interferon and why US were slow in getting started.

In his answer he name-checked Synairgen and also said they’re recruiting now, ready to go (he gave out the number to call several times), said they’d recruit 100 people quickly, and once initial results are in - perhaps early Spring, the the company would apply for EUA. And the P3 element would start a immediately after P2 to test safety data, although a couple of the doctors had already mentioned about testing with interferons for years so had a track record already.

Great snippets of information found in the last few days. All the evidence is piling up. And that one straight from the mouth of the FDA is the best of the lot. Well done Kev and pmjh.

Although I should add I’m not overly confident in WHO after the announcement about sub-cutaneous interferon last year on the solidarity trial. I think that set us back a lot more than we appreciated at the time.