The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/airlines-fly-close-downwards-debt-spiral-2021-12-15/
scary
GLA
travel wont be normal in march is the issue!
This SP is suffering both bc of sentiment and fundamentals....
And with Omicron spreading like wildfire lots of countries are likely to go into lock down either to stop brits coming in or to stop their own populations from mingling.
lets be clear Omicron is now worldwide, including china. So any measures taken can only slow it, not stop it.
I think the countries with poor vacc figures and poor vaccines (China & Russia!??) are likely to suffer most. So sadly this Sp might go down much, much lower and if it does I'll buy back in to lower my average as I already have a sizeable chunk invested in IAG...
GLA
I think this uk.gov move will potentially damage IAG SP bc if other countries see the uk letting in all sorts of variants they may be tempted to stop uk flights...
whilst a few like Tel Aviv wont make a big revenue difference , stopping the transatlantic will. And lets not forget stopping flights doesnt stop the spread of covid, especially the omicron variant, but they may close borders to uk flights to slow the rate at which Omicon is spreading....
GLA
I'm going to wait a few weeks before comming back in big....this could drop a Lot!
All depends on how other countries react to UK. If they starting banning UK flights this SP will be in trouble short term...
I still hold a sizeable amount...of XXXk so I hope it does rise but as they say in Lock stock & 2 smokin barrels..." All bests are off"!!
GLA
Covid is ******* with people on so many levels!
I thought this Share would stabilise last week now look at it!! luckily sold I sold 65% of my holding on Friday, now looking to buy back in but the question is when...!
How low will it go??
For sure this is a good buy but no harm day /weekly trading:-)
GLA
as stated above, VG LT stock BUT...
could easily go down between now and Q4 results are released. So the question you should ask yourself is when do you think it has reached the bottom before it rockets on Q4 results (assuming they are good results!!)
Gla
Good post Danphonic.
freedom is not curtailed bc the combustion engine is being phased out. That same argument was had back in the early 19oo's when 'horses were faster than cars and people were imposing a 5mph speed limit on cars with a guy waving a flag in front of it.
Neanderthal thinking process...
GLA
Welcome
it might go down again but not by much so don't panic or listen to the shorters on here...if you are a LTH you will do well, just be patient and don't follow the SP ups and downs as it will do that even by up to 10%......
Good luck
I posted this yesterday but thought it would take weeks for the market to realise that Omicron is actually much better for all of us than the Delta variant.
I sincerely hope many PI's didn't sell in a panic.
GLA
My Penny's worth
The answer is definitely a QI 'Nobody knows!"
So a few assumptions have to be made...
Whatever variants come along, and they will, the question is how transmissible are they and how deadly. The transmissible bit can be good. For example, Omicron is more transmissible than the Delta variant and so far data suggests far less deadly. This means it will boost those already vaccinated and for those unvaccinated, not kill them as much. Further, there is evidence to suggest that it will replace the Delta variant as the dominant strain (like the delta variant did to the previous strain).
That of course takes time to see and markets don't like uncertainty and have been spooked and that is why IAG SP has suffered. I don't think there will be much movement now either up or down until after the new year. ...
Caveat--- Knee jerk reactions could easily bear down on the SP like border closures etc. As long as the transatlantic routes stay open the money will roll in. How much is yet to be seen but it's fair to say once Q4 results published SP will rise significantly. (Feb). How much will depend on many factors, and it would be a brave man ( or foolish one) to predict that far ahead (too much risk and variables)... but on current trend the way is up...
GLA
@ Danphonic
listen to Northcot, so many people have now filtered Fig face that he's hardly here now which benefits everyone. please dont oxygenate his silly arguments and do us all a favour and filter him...
GLA
My Penny's worth
The answer is definitely a QI 'Nobody knows!"
So a few assumptions have to be made...
Whatever variants come along, and they will, the question is how transmissible are they and how deadly. The transmissible bit can be good. For example, Omicron is more transmissible than the Delta variant and so far data suggests far less deadly. This means it will boost those already vaccinated and for those unvaccinated, not kill them as much. Further, there is evidence to suggest that it will replace the Delta variant as the dominant strain (like the delta variant did to the previous strain).
That of course takes time to see and markets don't like uncertainty and have been spooked and that is why IAG SP has suffered. I don't think there will be much movement now either up or down until after the new year. ...
Caveat--- Knee jerk reactions could easily bear down on the SP like border closures etc. As long as the transatlantic routes stay open the money will roll in. How much is yet to be seen but it's fair to say once Q4 results published SP will rise significantly. (Feb). How much will depend on many factors, and it would be a brave man ( or foolish one) to predict that far ahead (too much risk and variables)... but on current trend the way is up...
GLA
I think there are more reasons to be optimistic especially if omnicron surpases the D variant... I'm with you on this Benny, Think woody is just grumpy his short hasn't materialised ...just bought over xxxk shares...:-)
GLA
@aim master you wrote
"Look for the signs. South Africa had 300 daily cases a day. A week later. They had 1600 off cases per day....last Tuesday they had 4000 cases in a day. That doubled to 8500 on Wednesday and today they announced its gone to 11000. 35% increase from a day before....so isn't that what's going to happen everywhere"
you do realise that is good news!!! Why?
bc the omicron variant is not only more transmissable than the Delta variant but far less deadly. that being the case it is evolving to provide mild symptoms....especially if you have been double jabbed....
gla
yep this made em city boys a few pennies... I've transferred some dry powder but wont show till after market closes shame bc I would have bought loads at 130 what a steal...
now will sit on my hands till SP recovers....and it will. well done to those who managed to buy at -20%
GLA
DEGIRO wouldnt let me sell even at 138, now dropped 20% do I think this is an overreaction Yep....
Now pulling out stops to get dry powder lots of dry powder as people seem to have forgotten that even if the NU variant can evade CURRENT vaccines, they only need to be tweeked to be effective again....
GLA