Member Info for SumOverHistories

I think I’m going to have start following your tips Roxbury. It sounds like you’ve totally crushed it this past year. I’m currently up about £30K on the £90K I started trading with in April last year. I feel like I’ve missed out on so many opportunities though through my lack of experience and knowledge.

If I was sat on the kind of profit you are, I think I’d be looking at paying maybe £1K or so to get a professional accountant to sort everything out for me to make sure my tax return was 100% correct.

I’m not too big on technical analysis, but yes it does look like a cup and handle pattern. However, the problem is the news is now full of stories about virus variants and the possibility of holidays this summer being unlikely.

I think this will likely retrace back to 230 again. We’ve been stuck in a 200 to 300 trading range for the past 3 months. It will probably take the arrival of some better news for it to break out of the range.

New CEO does a rights issue. Solves short term liquidity problem, shores up balance sheet by paying down some longer term debt, uses remainder to improve online offering and put together a superb advertising campaign to promote the online channels. Jobs a good un, multi bagger within a year or two.

Those look like really good figures considering they don’t sail for another 4/5 months.

Don't forget to add the £140 million cash injection to the market cap. pmsl

Our friendly local accountant Banbury can probably confirm, but my understanding is that the profits from insurance offset the current cash burn from cruising, meaning that overall the business is more or less cash neutral at present.

I’ve only been a premium member since the weekend mate. You seem to get a few worthwhile things like live prices, full share trade history, level 2 access etc.

I signed up purely to get access to the level 2 console because I wanted to be able to see the live order book for SAGA to see if it was any use in terms of understanding the current level of demand.

This Oxford vaccine business is going to be all over the news for days and it is billed as being superior due to cost and practicality. It’s also the most important vaccine for the UK because the government has got 100 million units on order. I wouldn’t be surprised if this share has another good week.

This company is in good shape because it has good cash on hand following the rights issue and is operating more or less cash neutral due to the insurance arm. There’s now a clear path back to normal operations next year. It must be worth 350 of anyone’s money surely given it’s probably worth between 800 and 1000 when Saga’s earnings return to normal levels.

The Motley Fool was and is an utter fool and his site full of contradictory articles.

Are Carnival really in any kind of position to be making acquisitions at the moment? I understand they have significant levels of debt.

Thanks Doofus. Just had a read through your posts and its been very insightful. Cheers.

I can see why another capital raise so soon could raise eyebrows. This one looks like a drop in the ocean though. 507,458 out of a total of 139,594,769 is 0.36% by my calculation. A small price to pay for keeping loyal employees incentivised and happy.

“I think that is such an odd statement... the market values the company...”

Possibly poor wording on my part chips. If you include the sentences that followed in the paragraph however, I think I’m pretty much in agreement with you.

I was just trying to make the obvious point that the open market price at a given point in time does not necessarily truly reflect the underlying value of the business. Which is basically the reason why a lot of us are here I guess, we think this share is currently undervalued given the fundamentals.

LTI - yes I don't disagree that the 495 p claim doesn't stack up based on the numbers. I'm just trying to understand the effect of the dilution and cash raise myself, as I'm invested here.

Smorty - I also don't disagree that the market currently values the company at 146 p per share. However, I think the wider point is that the market doesn't always assign the correct value to a company. From my perspective, based on the numbers and the pre covid profitability of the company, this is good potential recovery play.

Thanks, TFE. The before and after issued share numbers are exactly what I was looking for. I concur with your 86% increase calculation.

Obviously, as has been previously pointed out, a company is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it and the previous 33 p offer is now essentially irrelevant. However, just for the sake of argument, if you accept my logic of adding the £150 million raised to the £370 million valuation at the time of the offer, then you have a market value of £520 million.

If you then divide the £520 million by the post rights issue number of shares - 2,093,921,536, I think you are looking at approximately 25 p per share old money and 373 p per share new money (the 25 p multiplied by 15). The 25 p is a good number really, because it is very similar to the 27 p that Mr Haan Man paid for his premium allocation. Perhaps he was thinking along similar lines to this with his valuation?

If a company is worth £370 million and then raises £150 million in cash, then surely it logically follows that the value of the company has increased to £520 million. 370 + 150. The cash raise is of course good for the balance sheet of the company, but at the expense of existing equity holders who see their holding diluted.

Quick one for you TheFarEnd - you say the rights issue added 86% more shares. Is that correct? I've been trying to understand the extent of the dilution myself, and I was under the impression that it was a 5 to 9 issue. In other words, 5 new shares issued for every 9 existing shares, which I don't think adds up to 86%. If anyone can clarify this, it would be much appreciated.

Shake shake shake the room

You can set your watch by it.

https://www.travelweekly.co.uk/articles/389810/saga-introduces-special-interest-holidays

I bought in post rights issue and pre consolidation when it was around 150 p. I can't say I'm particularly happy with the fact it's dropped like a stone since then. However, it does feel like something is not quite right here. As has been rightly pointed out, at the current price Mr Haan Man might as well take over the entire gig.