Member Info for stuzeeuk

Hi Runner, Yes been in Tesco Lotus many times, Tesco certainly seems pretty dominant, at least in Bangkok, with 7/11 picking up the local stores. Good point re:Tesco in the UK. I agree the competitive landscape in the UK looks tough. Agree also ANW is a buy, although a long term political settlement would greatly improve things, I note Thailand is the 12th most uneven economy in the world. I still think the difference between the urban rich and rural poor needs to be addressed and greater moves by all parties to address it. Enjoy your visit also and the festive period.

http://www.hl.co.uk/news/articles/blackrock-world-mining-trust-research-update

I am heading out next month, will try chat to a few people about the state of the nation, unfortunately its a jolly, so I wont get a chance the meet the Central Bank of Thailand, Ministries of Finance or corporate banks as I did in Nigeria. Anyway I will I do my best to get a sense of he mood of the place. On a separate note is anyone considering a punt on Tesco?, investing in a crisis and all that. On one hand the only way is up, on the other I don't want another Marks and Sparks ...... any thoughts ?

Any thoughts on the outlook for this one? What can we expect over the next few years?, Any views welcome

What the falls ?, does anyone know?

A good article in the economist this week with the on the thai economy essentially saying the situation is finely balanced. Spending is weak, investment down, trade and tourism shrinking. A drought is looming in the provinces while in Bangkok easy money has pushed the bourse nearly to an all-time-high. Personally I am a bit more positive than that. I think short term outloook is good and to be fair the tourism number are begining to creep up again. I wonder if the article is using lagging data. Regardless its a decent piece

World Bank expect growth of only 1.5% this year (interesting the article says 3% for the second half of the year) http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/finance/436268/world-bank-revises-thailand-growth-to-1-5

BG, I normally only follow the headline indicators and increasingly try to invest in a crisis. This one was in a crisis (political stalemate and protestors on the streets), so I thought I would take a nibble, as soon as the protestors got off the streets. I should really look at the individual stocks more, but basically I don’t have time. Anyway my analysis so far is, now the immediate constitutional crisis has been averted in the short term and we have had the initial bounce. I think we are in the longer economic recovery stage. Some of the indicators on tourism seems to be turning in favour of Thailand and rice exports appears to be recovering too. I note Thailand is due to go back to being the No1 exporter of rice again. I personally think it will take a while for the whole economy to recover. We have a military intervention at the moment and an interim government. The biggest issue for this one is a long term political settlement between the urban rich and rural poor. If that flares up again I would sell immediately. However as long as peace holds the economy should begin/continue to turn in which case we should see further progress, although it will be slower. Given Thailand is a middle income country, I think the potential upside is significant, so long as a political settlement can be found. I would say hold and we should seen stocks rise, but sell if protestors appear on the streets again. Is my basic rudimentary analysis. I am heading out in Nov and should getter a better sense of things on the ground then. Have a look at BRFI. I was very impressed by Nigeria (well lagos, less so Abuja) when I visited. I think runner is already in.

Not sure how much of the portfolio is in Kenya. I am in Nairobi for the next few weeks and really impressed by the development and economic progress here. Lots of new (mainly US) private firms around and looking for area of investment, housing, frachising and banking. One risk looms large on the horizon is My Kenyatta's imminent appearance in the Hague in front of the International Criminal Court (ICC) http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-29483657

I was 60% up on this one stage, now ill be lucky to get out without a loss. Its been a true shocking few years ...... ah well you win some you lose some ....

I was in Pakistan 2004 - 2011. The economy had a decent but bumpy run. Tax revenue less than 1% of population, but a vibrant private sector, most of the bank have been restructured anfd functioning reasonably well, Might have a nibble at this one, now that Nigeria has not had any more Ebola cases.

Yes another smart move by SMT

Hopefully we can see steady progress ;-)

I really need to start getting some google alerts for this one. I haven't followed this at all and yet it seems to have taken off.

I will wait till the Ebola situation plays out in Nigeria before committing. More cases in Port Harcourt at the moment. If the WHO can get the situation under control is West Africa and/or Nigeria gets the all clear. I'll take a nibble.

This one seems to have benefited from the weakness of the pound post Scottish referendum polls. Hopefully we will have returned to £5 pre Christmas, I am hoping confidence returns in the run up to the festive period.

Yes back towards our highs, and a good divi too, roll on :-)

I think the drop in the pound today has supported the ANW price, as all my overseas based shares are up. Which is almost all my portfolio, happy days

I was in Lagos last week and very impressed by the city and the amount of commerical activity. Abuja is somewhat slower paced. The economy is fairly diversified, although oil revenues are significant and steady growth of 7% or so. They recently rebased their economy numbers and should now appear among the middle income countries in Africa. That has pros and cons. One of the pro's maybe capacilty for additional borrowing from IFI's. Having looked at the Ebola stuff, I am more relaxed about any implications for Nigeria. I'll perhaps have another look BRFI over the next few weeks.

Looks like the Bull run came good, lets hope it continues.