Member Info for Stupmy

For the moment, the market isn't behaving as if it's over reacted. Brent 71.8. US30 below 34600, US500 4565. If it doesn't stabilise, monday's open won't be pretty.

I thought policy was not to name new variants after the countries of origin to avoid stigmatising them (the host country, not the variants). Could they not call this one 'The Andromeda strain'? Got a catchy ring to it, nostalgic even.

Brent is 73.35 at the moment.

From my point of view the gap to 17.25 has now closed (2h chart). In fact closure of the gap initiated some buying so further falls were immediately rejected (for now at least). I guess that the SP is on the back foot still so I'm not convinced that there's any urgency to buy. There is another gap that would close at around 14p (daily chart). If Magnus problems were not resolved I guess that might encourage some more selling. There are possible supports around 16.6, 15.9 and then around 15.
The size and speed of the sell off today shows clearly that markets are very edgy. If it's the risk of a new strain of COVID triggering more mayhem to business that's causing this, it'll take time to resolve itself. There'll be some buying for those that think they are seeing bargains, but this may not be sustained and we could be seeing the start of a more sustained general sell off. That could hit ENQ even if it's not directly affected. If another globally important event occured for example Russia invading Ukraine we could see a lot more market nerves.

Brent at 78!!

I'm guessing it's that that has knocked the travel companies this morning. Heading into ski season, it's an important holiday destination for the winter period.

Not sure what the trigger was, but the US market futures are dropping pretty hard also. Maybe we're finally starting a wider market correction?

Many (all) of you are really bright people, doing lot's of research and understand the operational, capital expenditure and financial side of companies such as ENQ. I wonder if all of you understand the bit of the market that is based upon human nature. All the rest of it changes on a day to day/week to week/month to month etc basis. Human nature doesn't change, at least not very quickly at all. That means that when the market (us) is presented with information that isn't what 'we' wanted, then usually the market will react in a predictable way (taking this 'vague', but useful approach will not allways benefit you, but you don't have to be very bright to make it work for you more often than not). The way it reacts won't change fast. That means, you can make decisions with a better (much better?) than 50/50 chance of being correct. That means that if you are careful with risk-reward and are disciplined, you can make money over time. I'm not a '**** or buster', and maybe some of you are, maybe some of you want ENQ to be the be all and end all for retirement.
KO, I can see this hit you hard (you commented about feeling 'physically sick' d'alleurs on a all felt this way in our histories). From what I remember of your posts, you get pretty stressed with a pull back in price, then you calm down, then you decide the basic story is still valid and then 'add'. That means, you are accumulating. That means, every time the SP comes off, you're holding more and more risk. I know nothing of your financial position, but assume that you are wealthy and hoping to get wealthier. I don't know why I'm bothering with you really as you've been rude to me for no reason in the past, but why don't you consider that ENQ, like all companies has risk. Some of that risk is somewhat predictable, some will come out of nowhere. This one was somewhat predictable. Next time the price rises (if/when), why don't you consider rationalising your risk? It would seem to me that it is the fact you can not decide to do this, that leaves you so stressed when the 'unexpected' happens. I hope you don't take this the wrong way, it's meant to encourage you to be more decisive.

From my point of view, without good news, there is unlikely to be substantial buying interest before 17p (that's simply a gap on the chart). Closure of gaps often doesn't act as support so buying at 17p is by no means certain. So I think that the SP is likely to get to 17p now. What will be more interesting is whether it closes the 2nd gap to 14p.

Goddamn, you guys are super sleuths. That does really say it all!!

What's bubbly? Highland Park? Anyway, oil dropping quite hard and Enq SP looking vulnerable for the moment. If things don't pick up overnight the SP is likely to drop somewhat. I closed all of my leveraged positions when I posted my last post under 'TA view' thread. That was my first loss on Enq in a while. I'm still holding shares.

I have the SP dropping below it's rising TL support on the daily chart (Oct 30 2020/Dec 31 2020/3rd touch today at a price of 22.4ish). A close below that seems to invalidate the line as support and suggest a high risk of the SP falling further. For supports we might see some buying around 20.75, 18.75. Maybe some minor supports in addition. Worth considering that the 2h chart shows a gap to 17.25 area and the daily shows a gap to 14. At current POO market participants would presumably have to believe that there were significant difficulties to mark the price down below 17p. As with all things, only time will tell.

Clearly dropped a fair bit here. Not a great trading share due to volume and spread issues meaning that it's not always easy to get in and out quickly at a good price. However, I do trade it. Looks likely to me that price will test it's short term falling tl resistance (Oct 5th/Oct 28th/potentiall next few trading days for a 3rd touch of the line (currently around 175). Should the SP close above that then 176/177 area would see close of the gap on the 2h chart (around 176.75). Gap closure often doesn't act as a resistance to further upside so SP could go higher (possibly 188-192 area). For the volume/spread reasons alone there are better trades out there, but I have to say I'm buying (168-172 so far). Speculative and aggessive. Time will tell if it pays.

Sorry to 'highjack' others threads, but It's too much hard work to find 'TA view'? Can anyone tell me a simple 'hack' to continue an existing thread without too much effort?

A move to nuclear and somewhat later fusion is looking very likely at the moment. Both the UK and France are pushing that way. Some speculation that the first commercial fusion reactor will be in service around 2040. I find that amazing. It'll take until 2030 for the next generation of nuclear and mini-nuclear reactors to be commisioned.

Epiphany, how much can Iran influence the supply side while US sanctions are still in place? Are you considering the lifting of sanctiones in the near future? I see that Tehran is involved in discussions to re-instate their nuclear treaty with the US and 5 other nations. Are you assuming that successful conclusion of these discussions will lead to lifting of sanctions?

There's been speculation for while that Saudi's Oil reserves have been overstated. I believe that was rediscussed at the time of the ARAMCO float.

Just google Saudi Oil Reserves Overstated, or here's one link from that search.
https://ourworld.unu.edu/en/wikileak-cables-saudi-arabia-oil-reserves-overstated

Very difficult to understand at the moment, but clearly the SP movements are not particularly bullish and, from my perspective, they risk turning bearish. Time tends to explain things mind you, but sadly I'm not Marty McFly and therefore can't take a little peak into the future. When all of this will become hindsight. At that time I imagine that we'll either be the right side of what's happening or we won't.

chilting, seems not to be ENQ specific at the moment. Take a look at HTG for example. Really, dropped back a lot over the last week. Odd in a way, as you'd expect them to do well with POO staying high. ENQ SP has a gap to fill on the 2 h chart to 23.35 and a 2nd to fill around 23. Looks very likely we'll see those levels without news. If GE didn't complete early November I guess the SP would fall more. I know it won't be popular, but I still worry about the 17p area. Not sure what the reason is for the ENQ SP drop, but it may very well offer an opportunity when it reverses.

I think you're probably right Mrc, a quick win on a trade feels great, but the more of them you have, the less bothered about them you become. You focus more on balancing the books each year and controlling losses. I trade much more than invest and for me winning is a lot less emotionally affecting than losing. I suspect it's because I've been at it for a while. I remain long on ENQ at a much lower level than previously. When you see the broker notes it's so tempting to jump on them, but it's odd, when they're negative, people say they are nonsense and not worth reading. When they support peoples theses, all of sudden they are valid to those people.