Finncap note3 Dec 2018 14:17
It is a bit dated (26/11/18), but interesting enough.
Third time lucky
AAOG has resumed drilling of the TLP-103C well in the Congo, which is expected
to be completed by the end of December. The well is targeting three different
horizons with varying risk/reward; the producing R1/R2 horizon (risked NPV
6.0p/sh), the discovered Mengo interval (risked NPV 17p/sh, unrisked 29p/sh),
and the deeper Djeno exploration target (risked NPV 15p/sh, unrisked 67p/sh).
?Drilling resumes. Drilling has resumed at AAOG’s TLP-103C well in the Republic of
the Congo following the repair and reconditioning of the rig’s brake system. The well
is at 660m with the three target horizons at 1260m (R1/R2), 1,850m (Mengo) and
2,230m (Djeno). The well is expected to TD towards end-December and we expect
the first target reservoir, R1/R2, to be reached in about two weeks. AAOG will provide
updates as it receives results from the target horizons.
?Significant compensation. The rig owner, SMP, has accepted fault for the delay
and, in addition to the rig being on zero rate during the delay, it will compensate
AAOG for a substantial amount of the additional costs incurred during the delay.
Compensation will be via a significantly reduced day rate for the rig going forward.
?Still all to play for. AAOG shares have been under heavy pressure since the well was
suspended for a second time, with the £1m drawdown on its £5m Convertible Loan
Note adding to the pressure. The resumption of drilling, alongside compensation for the
additional costs incurred during the two and a half week downtime, should help steady
the ship. Importantly, the potential of the well remains intact.
?New shares issues. AAOG has also announced that Sandabel will convert £750k of
loan notes, issued as part of its £1m initial draw down on the £5m CLN facility, into
11.9m new shares at a conversion price of 6.3p, representing 6.8% of the enlarged
share capital. This more than offsets the 3.6% short position (5.8m shares) held by
Sandabel before this issue. Sandabel has undertaken not to adopt any net short
position in the Ordinary Shares in the future.