Member Info for Strongman

1stTee, I think first target date since drilling restarted has been know by a few a week ago. They did say 12 days to R zones and 4 more to Mengo. It was always open to a bit of time line manipulation in that case.

By the end of today, we are 24 hours to 48 hours to being in the R's. That will be the end of the manipulation of the share price, as news is in a short time line window to be bearish on the stock.

There will be a almighty bounce at some stage, most likely at the most unexpected moment. I have added today.

I asked James about the process to get governmental approval to release data:

''No it is not a long process''

If they are in the R zones Friday, then Monday must be favorite for the first update IMO. 4 days after for Mengo, which should start counting down at the weekend.

7.01 v 7.38

7.38 now, WIN's is on false position, will allow small buys at 7.10, but anything on size and they do not want to know. Not sure what WIN's game is here, they been closing down the ask for last few days to control.

False ask, 50k shares demands 7.325 live ask.

LOL survey estimate, not that they hit this reservoir twice already I guess:

Cumulative production to 30th September 2016 is estimated to be 0.35 MMstb. The well TLP-101ST
completed in the R2 reservoir was producing 38 bbl/d dry oil at the end of September 2016. The bottom
hole flowing pressure has risen gradually from a low of 385 psi at the beginning of 2015, to 413 psi at the
end of September 2016. The producing GOR is a little variable but is in the region of 2,800 scf/stb. The
initial reported reservoir pressure was 1,892 psi. There is no reported water production. All the produced
gas is flared.
Production commenced in January 2007 at an initial rate of over 900 stb/d. There followed a marked decline
in both rate and bottom hole flowing pressure. This was accompanied by a variable, but generally increasing
producing GOR (Figure 3.4). During 2010 and 2011 the well appears to have been on cyclic production. A
velocity string was installed in the well in late 2011. Since then the well has been on continuous production
with a gradual decline in oil rate and a steady rise in the producing GOR. Over the past 4 years the measured
bottom hole flowing pressure has remained fairly stable in the region of 400 psi. This may be due to a
number of factors such as secondary gas cap expansion, communication with neighbouring fault blocks or
aquifer influx.

Each of the 3 to 4 horizons are at set levels down the hole. We all know that R1/2 is around 1300 down, so they know once the drill bit is down to that level they will hopefully hit the horizon. This horizon has already been hit a few times on other wells, it is also mapped out, so they have a excellent idea of exactly where the oil is. Same for Mengo, they hit that in one of the other wells and it showed hydrocarbons. That is why they can predict accuracy to where the horizons are on a oil well.

''Once we recommence drilling, we expect to hit R1/R2 about 12 days after recommencing and then the Mengo 4 days after that.''

Looks like a busy week coming then. They should be into the Mengo by next Tuesday if they drill through the R1/2 Friday.

Edit: Not at all, the size you are selling is **non-consequential

''but funny you think i have any impact on the sp...''

Not at all, the size you are selling is consequential to a days volume. Just the wining can be irritating that is all. Indeed I will let the drill bit do the pushing here, no need for any ramping, as the oil shows will move the share price in either direction and not some pi's on a small board like LSE. In some ways I should be grateful today to your sells, as they have enabled me to get a SB away at 7.10 a little while back. So there is a silver lining after all.

marineville, no issue. I class you the same as Sandabel to the share price rise when it comes. Both better off out and not able to impede the rise when it comes. So happy to see you sell, good luck elsewhere.

??

Lets hope you get locked out marineville, if one poster on here deserves to be sitting on the side line, it is you.

Fellrunner75, do not deflect, this is your original post last night:

AAOG RE: ALL IN ALL NOT A BAD DAY Mon 22:03

I’ve noticed a few posters are talking about a 90% cos on this drill. I’ve been around this industry since 1996, and I’d like to see where that % cos comes from if anyone can point me to the rns or interview. My understanding is 90% cos is impossible as it’s a cumulative multiplication of 6 different probabilities so each one would have to be 98% probability of success to get a 90% cos on this drill, sounds implausible. Thanks in advance for the reference.

I have explained to you how poster's are stating COS for R1/2 of 90%. The key word being R1/2 reservoirs. You dismissed the COS of 90% in your post above, as being ''impossible''. Time for acceptance or rebuttal of the facts Fellrunner75.

I believe most here are fully aware of the COS for all horizons. 90% R1/2, 60% Mengo and 25% Djengo. I cannot remember anyone saying it is 90% for all horizons on here and would welcome you pointing to that post your refer back to.

You posted:

''I’ve been around this industry since 1996, and I’d like to see where that % cos comes''

If you are going to make those statements, then you had better know a lot about the oil and gas industry to start with. Considering you have been apparently involved in this sector since 1996, in 22 years you have not learnt the basics of how COS is worked. Now either you are telling a few fibs, or are just plain ignorant.

COS is taken from the fields CPR report. R1/2 have a P90 (90% proven commercial oil) with a best P90 estimate of 7.47 Total Oil (MMstb). It also has a P50 of 13.09 Total Oil (MMstb).

Field STOIIP estimates for the R2 reservoir in the TLP-101ST fault block are estimated by Petro Kouilou as 10
MMstb. The STOIIP range has been checked by LR and a probablilistic range reported separately (Table 3.4)
for the R2 interval in the TLP-101ST compartment. In-place volumes are also calculated for the R1 and R2
intervals in the TLP-102 fault compartment.

I am sure you know this already with that vast experience of yours, did you bother to check the CPR by the way.

Edit: On SEAQ platform it is. But AAOG is on the SETSqx** platform

Been a long day, have a good one folks.

On SEAQ platform it is. But AAOG is on the SETS platform, so mid price is taken. You will see it adjusted after 5pm.

7.35 mid close.

It was a buy, sells are right on the 7.20 only. Anything above is a buy.

Good to see our own broker Finncap rise onto the bid at 7.20 this morning, and hold that line all day. Look like they are trying to stop the messing around by WIN's.