Member Info for Strike123

£1.65

Jamie Dimon has been wrong with his predictions since 2022. He said SP500 would drop to 3800 in 2023 due to recession but it breached 5000! He said SP500 would end 2024 at around 5300 but it breached 6000 nearly! His predictions and forecasts are finger in the air numbers or by a flip of a coin.

Fact is markets have been resilient despite the recession fears and with higher interest rates. Markets have seen a lot in the last few years starting with covid, Russia war, Israel war, high inflation, high interest rates and yet markets have grown to new highs.

German stock index rose by 20% since pandemic. Their growth is more or less same as ours or bit worse than us. Japan's stock index rose too.

FTSE is due for a bounce. Torys politics were chaotic with no big policy changes to show growth and that held back FTSE. Our companies valuations are too low. With elections over now, I think a rerate is due for FTSE. We are just into 2nd day of this year. Let's see how it goes. ATB

Finley,

Yes, in my view the bad news around interest rates and Reeves budget is priced in. Because SP dropped nearly 25% from a high of 165p since the start of strengthening CGT news and then the budget announcement. No other sector dropped this much after the budget so in my view this drop already priced in the bad news. Going forward we need to see if TW can sustain the dividend and still sell homes. I know a builder who is not reducing the new built price despite the interest rates forecast and stamp duty changes. To be honest the impact of stamp duty changes is not that massive for homes sold by the builders. The impact is short term and first time buyers would eventually buy in despite the reduced stamp duty once the rates start to come down.

In the end it comes to numbers and TW seems to be well placed. Hopefully Labour does not come up with any more draconian changes for housing sector that affect builders!

If TW confirms the dividend in the upcoming trading update then market should react positively. Agree that I took risk buying in much before the update but to me there is no risk with dividend cut and TW balance sheet is better than other builders.

Also the increase in short position by Point 72 on Dec 27th could be due to the anticipated slower rate cuts this new year. They were changing their positions since November if you see their short history. Rate cut is coming in Feb and Point 72 could reduce their position after that.

As this is already down by close to 25% since the top in October so for me bad news is priced in. Any lower than this would be short lived. AIMO

Thank you Crossley. That is a very good information. Let's wait for the update. Hopefully the numbers are good. ATB

Chatroom,

You mentioned that there are 2 more sites starting with the build?

Do you and others see that TW has acquired enough land to build the homes? If so then I think there is no cause to worry about the profits that TW can make. Although interest rates may not lower to precovid levels soon but they are lowering compared to previous year and that should help reduce the build costs too for some extent. I think if dividend is being maintained and some positive commentary in the updated then this should rise. Also house prices increased by 3-4% YoY despite higher I interest rates last year. I think it is prudent to buy TW now than waiting for market conditions to improve. Short increase could be due to them betting on bad results in the upcoming update. But all the bad news is prices in with respect to the interest rates as this already dropped from 165 to 120. I don't believe it will go below 100. It did previously due to Liz Truss disastrous budget. Current Reeves budget impact is already priced in including the stamp duty change. I added this morning. Will be in till year end to see where the price goes. GLA

They increased it from £8.50 to £9 due to lower fuel costs going forward.

After considering share consolidation, precovid price is £11! So I think at least £7 SP is reasonable.

I don't know if market is anticipating a $100 oil again due to Russia and ME conflict. If that is the case then all other airlines should should be priced accordingly including the airlines across the pond.

I think this is undervalued among FTSE. This is easily 20% undervalued. Just ramping it but surely this is way below the precovid price. 20% rise from current level will only take this to 660p!

This can become an easy take over target if the price lingers here for long.

BT SP could have ended this year near 160p but I think market became cautious with BT due to the uncertainty of the court case. Market was preparing for negative outcome so the SP dropped from 160p. But now that the court case is concluded with positive outcome for BT, new year 2025 should be good for BT. If the positive cash flow is maintained with steady dividend, I can see BT touching 200p in 2025. First step is to get back to 160p which could be achieved as we get to full year results. GLA and Happy New Year in advance!

Missed the CAT news and missed adding more here for the dividend. With court case thrown out it should be all blue skies with the SP here. Most likely due to holiday season big investments into BT is not happening I guess. Most likely next set of results confirming the cash flow should lift the SP to 200p. I will add here in small tranches.

Bloomberg said UK companies are very much undervalued with instability in France and elections in Germany in 2025, next year would be good for UK shares says Bloomberg after their survey with various fund managers!

Interesting article about China's safeguarding measures against strengthening US dollar. I think any higher tariffs on imports from China would impact Elon M Tesla! It will be interesting to see what will happen to Tesla with the tariffs. May be he can influence Trump decision on tariffs on China?

Thing to note is that China economy was growing during Trump's first term. It is down after the covid. With interest rates lowering further next year and with China's stimulus demand for goods could grow and that should help PM prices and so the Glen SP.

Glen

Definitely a bit and just keep adding the lows. I sold at 420 when it was on the way down but bought at 402, 382 as I thought Chinese stimulus would help strengthen their economy this the demand for metals but Trump tariffs is going to hurt China's economy but need to see if the growth dampens. If China shows resilience then I think demand for commodities will rise and so will be Glen SP. Market is pricing as if commodities will go down due to strong dollar. Let's see where this goes. It could touch 330 briefly before the ex divi but that should be the bottom imo and will bounce high. If not happy to collect dividends and will add more. It is not a company that will go down so nothing to worry. Buy low sell high! GL

Track11, well said. It is unbelievable that they have held the interest rate despite the growth slowing down and high taxes. They could have reduced the rate by another 25pts if not by 50pts.

I'm happy with my small £10k worth of shares bought for 170p avg. Nice profit on the paper so far. Google shows precovid peak at around 429p so 350-400p easily at some point next year.

Many shares are multiple times higher than precovid price so IAG has lot to catch up!

Sorry for the typos... not good typing in mobile.

Anyways want to ask what people think about the SP if BoE holds the rates tomorrow?

But surprised that this is blue today considering the rose in inflation which could make BoE hold the interest rates tomorrow?

Or it has git bottom now? Bought some at 128 so waiting to see when to add again.

Don't understand the reason for the fall to 140s again. Today's wage inflation seems to have impacted majority of the FTSE stocks with interest rate likely to stay the same and no cuts.

Still but surprised with the drop from 160 so quickly without any bad news specific to BT?

I think there are few factors for SP not moving -

Current hopeless govt is going to continue with the windfall tax till the end of current govt, which is for next 5yrs!

Uncertainty about the Trump policy on oil. He wants low oil prices or is it that he wants shale companies to produce more oil and make US the largest exporter of oil but shale companies can't fall for Trump this time as they want returns on their investment which is only possible when oil prices is high. Uncertainty around the Trump policy is a risk that puts off investment.

Uncertainty around holdings of the large share holders from Wintershall. Once the locking period is over then we need to see if they will continue to hold or not.

China stimulus not helping yet to grow their economy. Trump tariffs are another problem to add to their growth concerns.

Pressure is on Labour govt to show growth but their approach for growth is through greener economy so that doesn't help for oil industry.

Only way out I think is to list in US or some US company acquire HBR.

Https://www.bloomberg.com/features/companies-to-watch-2025/

Bloomberg top 50 list includes global companies from US,UK, China and other Asian companies.

ITV is listed for possible takeover in 2025 including EasyJet!

Google shows precovid peak price as 423p considering the additional issued shares during pandemic so from current price there is quite a catch-up to do to just reach pre pandemic price!

More than 50% rise needed just to get to the pre covid price even though balance sheet is much healthier now than covid.

Disappointing that there is no RNS from ITV about the bid. It is all over the news so some statement from ITV would be good for SP. Either say we won't sell studios or consider selling if there is a good offer.

Nice rise and well done to those who topped up last week!

I think Dame this time will sell Studios as she has realized the market reaction after the trading update.

Even buybacks did not help steady the SP.

I can see a bid coming this time.

Surprised that RNS was not released today after hours either about Sky news.

Most likely tomorrow morning ITV will say that it is reviewing the offer received.