Member Info for Strider4

For those new to the share.

1) Alpala - Tier 1 copper-gold porphyry.
2) Exploration upside - 11 other primary targets with 5 priority. All show surface potential to be significant resources. Latest news - PV15 surface expression better than Alpala (03/01/19)
3) Cashed up ($104 million in the bank)
4) CEO has plenty of skin in the game (90m shares).
5) 2 Majors on the share register (Newcrest and BHP) and recently active:
a) BHP unveiled new investment strategy - projects that could turn into the next tier 1s...well we have that confirmed already here. BHP's recent (Sept 18) "aggressive" purchase of Guyana's 6% stake, followed up by an "efficient" purchase of a further 5% at a 30% premium to the then market price (Oct 18).
b) Newcrest upped it's stake by 2% to 15% (Dec 18) in an off-market transaction at a 15% premium (40p) to then share price (36p).
6) Strong upcoming newsflow (PEA - possibly this month, drill permits, assays for Alpala, regional news - 6 month backlog due anytime, resource updates, potential conditional funding packages, PFS at end 2019).
And the biggie - Takeover Offer (this is a very real possibility given the tier 1 Cu resource and two Majors on board).
7) Ecuador making the right moves to become a mining friendly jurisdiction. It needs revenue to replace depleting oil supplies and it doesn't have to look far to see how rewarding good mining policies can be (Chile), if you've got the natural resources.

Only a fool sells at support.

Bottomz, you raise a fair point. However, SOLG are very comfortably off for cash at the moment. If instos want in via a placing they might well have to pay top dollar...

JP Morgan, and the other big instos, make their money through fees. Not by being right - it's well documented.

So yes, I've no doubt I could do just as good a job at managing a fund as half of that lot - just invest in an index tracker - job done.

Looks like they got one of their junior analysts on the job.

Nice to see positive coverage from a major institution - should reach a few ears that are as yet unaware. I'm hoping for a big beat of their assumed CAPEX ("close to $3.5 billion") and a possible 20%+ beat of their NPV estimate ($3.5 billion).

Zoom out a bit - the "handle" is well in tact with room to spare. The chart remains positive. The newsflow remains imminent and likely to be extremely positive. I remain with my full quota.

FR, lol, well you would be feeling a bit negative wouldn't you! After all you're hoping to get that slice you took off the table back in at 35p aren't you...hashtag transparent...

Clarification: given the run that the FTSE/DOW has had in the last week or so we're due a dip in the FTSE/DOW.

FR raises a point that I've been thinking about. He's lightened up a bit here to free up capital to catch the rebound in the stock market...I doubt he is the only one, hence the drift we've as we wait.

Given the run that the FTSE/DOW has had in the last week or so we're due a dip again (hopefully it's just that), but as a result I think the "hot" money will as a result start trickling back. Additionally, clearly 35p is seen as a buying point and has yielded profits to traders so far - if we visit the low 35s, and that's an if, I expect to see people freeing up capital to take advantage. Further, the close we move to the end of January, the closer we get to the PEA release. Since it's expected to be rather tasty and act as a possible takeover trigger subsequently, I would expect that investors will want to be loaded up to their full quota fairly soon.

Quady, Sorry but what on earth are you on about:
"you mustlearn thedifferance between a statement, a fact, a conclusion and conjecture."
Is English your first language?

" a bid could emerge, however it won't be from BHP till Oct2020." Incorrect - a friendly bid from BHP is allowed at any time.

Quady, you come from a scientific background do you? So what - so do I. You've picked out all of the facts there and omitted the greater part that was your opinion - fine, let's dissect your latest post.

"BHP tried to make a bid and was rebuffed. " Fact agreed.
"NM says he wants to extract maximum shareholder". Fact agreed - he has said that. Note the fact is that he SAID that, not that it will happen. Of course, logic, as distinguished from facts, would suggest that he will do everything he can to make this happen as he is a significant shareholder.
"NM says he is taking this to production" The fact here, as above, is that he SAID that, not that this is ACTUALLY going to production.
"If you carry on digging holes you burn cash". Self-evidently a fact. The holes don't dig themselves. Digging holes adds more value than it costs when you've got something as prospective as SOLG has. Can't remember what the cost per ounce so far is, but I do remember that it's rather tasty.

And that whole diatribe was to support the fact that you think NM means it when he says this is going to production under SOLG...the FACT is Quady that he has to say this is going to production under SOLG regardless of whether or not it is true. He would be an absolute fool to do otherwise, and clearly he is a canny businessman.

You may come from a scientific background Quady but I remain unimpressed.

I note you don't deny that BHP have packets of money, but change tack.

Depends on the price tag, but a minimum of $4 billion I would say. They could possibly stretch to it, with a combination of cash and shares. However, it is clear it would be a big ask. More likely they would JV with another major (not BHP) or manufacturer (e.g. Mitsubishi) that is open to JVs.

Newcrest may well be becoming larger soon anyway via merger or takeover. And yes, they, like BHP, are not interested in a minority stake here.

Good find Padmaster:

"The December meeting of the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) in Beijing, a meeting of top Chinese officials chaired by President Xi Jinping, agreed that China must eventually rely on its home market alone for future prosperity. As part of this process, the conference reiterated an older goal that China must “urbanise” 100 million citizens by 2020(source: SCMP, Dec.2018).
Infrastructure projectshavebeen delayed due to extreme cold weather in some provincesand the Trade War ,but arenow set to accelerate to help stimulate the economy. Regardless, China is focusing on two key
milestones in 2021 and 2022, which will ensure that the current infrastructure build-out goes smoothly. These two milestones lie ahead: the 100th year anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China in 2021 and President Xi’s 10th year in office in 2022."

= Copper demand

Quady, I feel compelled to reply! Not sure that this is the definition of a fact:
"Facts are events which are observations made directly or indirectly"
Regardless, you then go on to make a case that is based mostly on your opinion/interpretation!

And I'll leave it there, as we wouldn't want things to get "silly" again would we!

Good morning Quady, just have.

I'm looking at the evidence square on and what I see is this:

Do you really think Newcrest and BHP would be interested if they actually believed that NM was going to take this to production? The answer is no. NM has emphatically ruled out JVs, and that I believe. That leaves a takeover. The only question in my mind is when? Hopefully, after we've had enough time to drill the other prospects...or hive them off from any takeover package.

ET - one thing BHP is not short of is money! A big wad of cash goes a long way towards shortening timelines as well...

FR,
"You may recall monte, BHP tried to buy us - we said no" - It was an offer that NM thought under-valued the company. He was right.

"You ask why did BHP buy us?
The question really should be, why haven't BHP bought us?" Not sure you're right there. It's standard practice to get a stake on the table first. Perhaps they are waiting for the PEA? There are plenty of numbers that will be included in that, that are not in the public domain and so they won't be able to model it themselves with much accuracy. Perhaps, they think they can afford to wait a bit...after all nobody is going to steal their prize without them getting a say so.