Member Info for Strider4

BU, I do think that there is merit to FR's stated strategy here.

Grims' post earlier was more or less spot on though ref FR. He comes out with decent insights and BS in equal measure.

BU, some clarification.

I am not a trader hater! Far from it - I use technical analysis myself.

This is exactly the sort of share into which you cannot always buy back at 8:01 am just where you left off...think BHP at 45p, think takeover. Not sure I'd want the bulk of my holding sat on the sidelines trying to catch 10% when a takeover offer comes in at 100%++.

You have a choice to buy one of two excellent businesses, identical with the exception that business A's model will become obsolete in 17 years whereas business B is expected to be thriving for at least 50 years, providing income not just to you but to your children and quite possibly grandchildren too. They are both on sale for the same price. Which do you choose?

Good spot Jerry - we'll be using the latest tech.

Chrysus, while you were doing your research did you notice we have a choice of two ports?

BU, true BHP took me by surprise - I was looking for a bigger retrace into a discount placing. Missed that. Got carried away and started my buying at 41p, but average down to a reasonably respectable 38.5p.

35p was a standout buying point on the chart. I was, and remain, too excited by the prospects here to have "risked" holding my entire stake off the table until it hit that level. From the sounds of it you don't have a large investment here, but are just trading it along with many others.

Missed this in your essay there FR:

"despite this, you won't pop up and say 'sorry I was wrong', "

Oh the irony..."cut-off" grade anyone?

FR, yes you're excited to see the back of 35p now you've stuck your "long" on from your trading pot.

BU - I seriously doubt you will get your chance. More likely you'll end up being sat on the sidelines watching it bounce up from 31p again (IF and that's a big if 35p doesn't hold).

NM isn't going to delay the PEA for any of that. This thing has a multi-decade lifespan, transcending any of this short-term nonsense.

FR, it's a risk selling to catch the next support and you know it.

I believe Bottomup tried for 29.5-30p last time round and ended up missing the train to 45p...now there's an expensive miss trying for 10%.

But hey, whatever floats your boat. I know you've been trading the 35-38p range, getting all positive at 35p and then wanting "balanced" views at 38p after you've sold.

All I can say is good luck trying to trade that one, if it happens. The next major support is not far below and by the time you've sold (assuming you're giving 35p some leeway, which any self-respecting trader would), you'll have 10% or less to play with...

are based solely on an estimated 17 year life of the high grade core. They've attributed nothing to the rest. Yes, on an NPV basis they're probably right, given that after about 10 years value drops off a cliff, but the absurdity is clear.

No, I believe the investors will be sitting tight and fully loaded at this juncture. We are due a storm of news in Q1.

Lull before the storm...

1) Alpala - Tier 1 copper-gold porphyry.
2) Exploration upside - 11 other primary targets with 5 priority. All show surface potential to be significant resources. Latest news - PV15 surface expression better than Alpala (03/01/19)
3) Cashed up ($104 million in the bank)
4) CEO has plenty of skin in the game (90m shares).
5) 2 Majors on the share register (Newcrest and BHP) and recently active:
a) BHP unveiled new investment strategy - projects that could turn into the next tier 1s...well we have that confirmed already here. BHP's recent (Sept 18) "aggressive" purchase of Guyana's 6% stake, followed up by an "efficient" purchase of a further 5% at a 30% premium to the then market price (Oct 18).
b) Newcrest upped it's stake by 2% to 15% (Dec 18) in an off-market transaction at a 15% premium (40p) to then share price (36p).
6) Strong upcoming newsflow (PEA - ANYTIME, drill permits - PV RNS implied Q1, assays for Alpala, regional news - 6 month backlog due anytime, resource updates, potential conditional funding packages, PFS at end 2019).
And the biggie - Takeover Offer (this is a very real possibility given the tier 1 Cu resource and two Majors on board).
7) Ecuador making the right moves to become a mining friendly jurisdiction. It needs revenue to replace depleting oil supplies and it doesn't have to look far to see how rewarding good mining policies can be (Chile), if you've got the natural resources.

Bounce off 2p support. Those numbers look very tasty.

Same here - it's now at the stage when the RNS could land anytime.

Addicknt, ah ok - so what do you reckon the % is, as you may well know all of those institutions? I would say we can discount most of the 1%s. Should leave a fair chunk in sticky hands though.

pg.11 - the top 20 holders account for more than 80% of the share capital, so less than 20% is retail.

Ref their CAPEX calcs I think they've been rather conservative with their $1 billion estimate for the "Surface infrastructure (power, hydrogeology, roads etc)".
I also note that they've allocated $400m to "Studies & project delivery" which seems a bit all-encompassing - does that include PFS/BFS?
Hannam estimated the initial CAPEX to be $2.3 billion and comparing the two reports I know which one has the greater depth of insight.

nm