Member Info for Straycat

I'm saying it almost certainly is a contractual term that GKP cannot invest in any other proposition other than its commitment to Shaikan.
From the KRG's point of view, no other arrangement would make sense.
What do I think of it?
Well I've invested haven't I.?

'a very dodgy basket case investment racket for the KRG.'

No I don't see that at all.
But I did suggest that contractually the two parties would have had to negotiate terms that were acceptable to both.
As for your Stockholm Syndrome theory, well you can always sell up if you feel that way.
So it's not quite the same is it?

Anyway,I don't feel that way at all.
For me, I walked into GKP with my eyes wide open and I'm not in the business of blaming others if I've got it wrong.
Which I haven't (despite some 'blips'!!).
Not yet anyway.

Excellent.
That is a really good question which you have raised before.
And the answer depends on the initial contractual terms agreed between the KRG and GKP.
I've never been able to establish why it is that GKP haven't considered this possibility...maybe they have; I don't know. Certainly it's never appeared in any RNS or any other information I'm privy to.
However, if I were sat in the KRG's shoes, I wouldn't want any 'Shaikan' cash disappearing elsewhere into any other investments that I didn't know about, somewhere else in the world.
Because I'd want the money re-invested exclusively into ShaIkan.
So I would contract accordingly. Wouldn't you?
What about the other Operators in the area?
Have they been able to develop their company investment positions elsewhere using KRG cash? Not sure, but don't think so.
Thoughts?
Welcome back btw...

You will be the first contributor I've ever filtered C0ckeye.
But I'm done with your inane rantings.
Please don't make me do it.
Can't we get back to GKP?
Having said that, you've never posted a properly supported positive on the Company in all the time I've been on this bb.
Just try will you?
Tell me about GKP's financial outlook.
Talk to us about your view on this year's performance...as a LTH you must have a view, surely?
At least give us something to work with rather than your ridiculous use of this bb to spout your f*cked up view of the world.
Please don't let yourself down like this. I'm embarrassed for you.

No more GKP related opinions then.
Far less any backed by factual/financial weight.
But anything that propagates the 'Russian special military operation' gets prime time C0ckeye interest.
What a joke.

You really have lost the plot C0ckeye, haven't you?
Any chance you might ever provide informative contributions on GKP's current performance trajectory?
And your estimable opinion maybe?
Or is it all about Russian propaganda and personal insults nowadays?

So there's an investment decision to make right now as a PI.
And it's this:-
Given the relative collapse in the oil price and future forecasts for 2022;
Given GKP's struggle to improve its production performance to 55k bopd after so much recent capex;
Given the sp reaction to these and other ancillary geopolitical considerations;
And critically, given the impending XD and the $50m payout;
When/whether to buy at these prices?
For me it's not even an issue IF you understand the Company fundamentals and what's possible.
But if you're in it for a quick buck then you should really consider why you're investing.
JF's long standing narrative that he wanted GKP to become a 'boring old oil company' might finally becoming a reality...just look at the way we track the oil price nowadays.
The share price differential will come from production increases and the FDP approvals.

Meanwhile the dividend beckons...

Fun eh?

Hi BB,
Getting too micro on the cash flows can be problematic in terms of the assumptions used about when payments will be made.
But the more general cash flow point you make, based on your own micro assumptions, is still valid. Which is good, because it validates my own macro point.
And that is that unless there's an up tick in oil prices and production volumes then prudence is sensible given the decision to pay back the loan (which I wholly applaud by the way!).

Ha! Missed you too!

So, let's look at 2022 current cash flow estimates:-
Opening Balance $170m
Receipts $350m
Bond repayment $100m
Capex $95m
Dividend $190m
Admin/other costs £30m
Closing Balance $105m

Obviously I've thumb-nailed this to simplify, but what more might be sensibly possible in terms of shareholder distributions notwithstanding oil price and production flow increases?
I've already recognised/catered for another possible shareholder distribution in the narrative.

You've got to ask yourselves; who's selling?
It's not the Institutional investors (ignore BlackRock, that's just a technical adjustment).
It's clearly the new investors who thought they saw a quick win and can't afford to stay the course as macro market conditions change.
But all that's needed is to focus on the fundamentals of the business.
GKP has no debt.
GKP may make as much as $250m in 2022 (2021 $164m) pre dividend.
GKP will probably have net cash receipts in excess of $350m in 2022 (2021 $222m) .
GKP will probably pay out another $50m special dividend before the year end, with more shareholder distributions certainly possible.
Because it can easily afford to, despite net capex commitments of $85m-$95m in the year.
And that's @ 45k bopd. If they are able to move that up to 50k bopd during the year then those performance figures are certainly up for review.
Then there's the FDP which, if approved, will make for a significant market re-rate.

But this is no longer the trading share it once was, as newbies are finding out.
What it does suggest is how influential PIs are to sp volatility when they rush in and out on waves of speculative excitement/fear.

No need for another NED at all.
Except that both the Chairman and the CFO are under severe shareholder scrutiny (69% and 70% approval ratings respectively at the AGM). Not nearly enough shareholder acceptance under Corporate Governance requirements (80% minimum).
Answer? Draft in a friendly Bermudan local as NED who'll tow Jaap's party line for money and help quell Boardroom unrest at the continuing shareholder revolt against the Chairman's sullied tenure.
Effectively Jaap's antidote to Garrett Soden...it won't work because as a non-independent NED, Soden is Lansdowne's 'goalkeeper'.
And he's going nowhere.
What it DOES indicate is shareholder and possibly Boardroom friction.

Hi again Indrid,
Like I said before; you don't need any help.
You're easily the match for C0ckeye/truthsayer.
As you have demonstrated.
Repeatedly.
Good effort my friend.

So in my fantasies, you, Indrid, are female, Scandinavian and attractive (preferably very attractive).
And if any of that's not true, I don't mind. It doesn't matter.
What does matter is that you have that fire in you to call out this nonsense being propagated by truthsayer, 147king and more recently (and most surprisingly) ignorant C0ckeye.
What a load of unsubstantiated old tosh they're touting. Tragic Putin legacy.
Absolutely no relevence to the way the rest of us get it.
Well done Indrid.
Btw, I'd properly join in, but it doesn't seem to me you need any help at all given what you're dealing with.
Third raters with no real understanding of how the World's moved on since Stalin.
Good effort Indrid.

It's Huijskes' Chairmanship that hasn't impressed Lansdowne's. Hence the vote.
The dividend is down to JH's stewardship since his appointment.
And he got 91% shareholder approvals for re-election as a result.
I don't think Lansdowne are currently looking for a cheap takeover offer.
I think their looking for a value for money new Chairman.
And I'm with them.

The benchmark 2018 Corporate Code requires 80% approval from the shareholders for re-election of their Board Directors.
Jaap gets 68% shareholder approval for re-election. Weatherdon 70%.
Meanwhile Garret Soden gets 93% support ( as a Lansdowne non-independent appointee).
So a non independent non exec gets many more votes for re-election than the Chairman and the CFO.

' The Board notes that Resolutions 2 and 7 were duly passed but did not attain the support of 80% of shareholders who voted. Substantially all the votes against resolutions 2 and 7 were from a single major shareholder, who voted against the re-election of the same Directors at the 2021 AGM'.
So that'd be Lansdowne then.
'As set out in provision 4 of the 2018 UK Corporate Governance Code the Board will now consult and engage with the single major shareholder, along with the Company's other major shareholders as appropriate, and will provide an update within six months of the AGM.'
Now Jaap and Weatherdon have to go back to Lansdowne and make their case for re-election...again.
And they'll probably fail...again.
Yet Jaap limps on as before, without Lansdowne's support.
But the markets will continue to note Jaap's lack of major shareholder support and therefore his corporate legitimacy.
Now that IS a drag on GKP corporate credibility.
If the Chairman can't keep his major shareholder(s) onside then what is his purpose?
He's run out of road. Surely? Doesn't he get it?

Unbelievable panic here. And for no reason apart from children spooking the bb;
So irrational.
Let's have a look at the sp as the first and second XDs approach...

Shut down the debt. Excellent. Makes GKP impervious to 'outside' short term influences, given our current cash balances/forecast cash flows..
And a bold statement as to our outward looking confidence ref. self-funding growth.
Also a really good use of excess cash in the context of an $11m P&L cost every year.
XD beckons...sp?

Tomorrow's AGM is a pivotal moment in our GKP experience.
JH has the shareholders within his reach...but will he reach out to them?
I think so.

'In 2020 JF had to contend with four missed payments and the collapse in the PoO, hardly a scenario for a full scale attack on increasing production.'

The explanations for failure are scattered on the career graves of many vaulted senior executives.
The problem with JF is that he's an over promoted Geologist with no real general management experience. That's why he was recruited.
And while, because of his training and experience, he wasn't capable of making the big calls that would have seen us up to 55k bopd by now, he was definitely smart enough to extract a MASSIVE PAYOUT for his inaction at critical points during the post Restructure real politic.
When Jaap Huijskes was the GKP anchor.
Like I said, the bopd facts speak for themselves.
You've never run a serious business TM, so I don't expect you to get that with the big bucks come big responsibilities.
And making the right calls at the right times is what separates the best from the rest (horrible phrase, I know).
JH has added major impetus to the GKP cause and should be recognised for what he's already done. His inspired dividend policy, which is still in play, has been influential in the sp rise from which we're all reaping the rewards.
And it looks to me like he's going to keep on teasing his support with further significant shareholder capital distributions.

But he still has a difficult path to tread...nevertheless, for now he's got my support.

Post Restructure and under JF's tenure GKP'S annual average output from 2017-2020 was just over 34k bopd.
JF was retired at the end of 2020. Let's ignore his 'advisory' role in the early days of 2021.
2021 output increased to 43.4k bopd, a 27% increase in JH's first year against a four year drift under JF.
And latest update from FYR-
'2022 YTD gross average production of c.45,500 bopd...'
i.e. 33% up in fifteen months on JF's performance averaged over four years.
No need to re-write history on this, the facts speak for themselves.
JH wins the battle of the barrels hands down.