Member Info for Stoopid

Sorry I ment Judicial Review, stupid typo.

The one month chart looks terrible (down approx 10% over the last 4 weeks) and it appears that traders might be hunting stop losses. The CBG price shows a clear disconnect with some of the big banks over the last month.

Some of the commentary I have seen suggests that CBG are being used as an institutional hedge, but im just a little PI and have no real info or idea, but CBG are clearly the whipping boys atm.

Roll on the FCAA scheme. Im hoping that there is no requirement but the more I read and see, im worried that Knot will be correct and the FCA will be hawkish with a scheme and force the banks hand regarding a JD and we end up with another 12 months of legal shenanigans.

Another indication that the FCA may be paving the way for a watered down redress scheme that aligns with the supreme court decision to avoid a juducial review and the loss of his job.......

https://www.ftadviser.com/content/5fe6caec-4dca-4a73-afb0-2bcd8d6b9603#:~:text=FCA's%20Nikhil%20Rathi%20confirms%20there,keep%20and%20which%20will%20shift.

CBG loosening the reins in Premium Finance/Motor Finance?

https://www.insurancetimes.co.uk/news/close-brothers-reverses-commission-disclosure-and-consent-requirement/1457816.article#:~:text=TechTalk-,Close%20Brothers%20reverses%20commission%20disclosure%20and%20consent%20requirement,explicit%20consent%20to%20commission%20arrangements.

Https://www.ft.com/content/bc45946e-3751-402c-94b8-947d2fc41717

Suprised that with the softening of the FCA stance almost a month before the scheme comes out that there hasnt been more of a rise today.

Also, if you noted Blackrocks change from actually holding the shares to a partial derivative position whilst still "owning" the shares? They are well known for lending out shares and they are probably part of the chain assisting short sellers?

So, the "free float" of 42 million that you are referring to is the "technical free float" i.e. shares which the public and institutions can trade if they want. So, whats out there to buy and sell if the price is right and the holders actually want to sell. The "effective float" is whats pubically availble to buy i.e. not 42 million.

The 100k i was referencing is what is available to currently BORROW, from a borrowing pool of holders. So its not part of the "free float". The actual tradeable float is small, possibly less then 10% and over a 5 year period, Paypoint has been tightly traded with only an average daily volume over 5 years of approx 165k per day.

The CAT dispute - Utilita already settled out of courd and actually forged a new deal/partnership with Paypoint suggesting that there was no money and no real evidence in the claim/litigation. Paypoints lawyers also pointed out that Global365s own emails suggested their platform was a frankenstein mess and wasnt market ready suggesting in a rather huge way that Global365s failings were entirely of their own making and that the big utilities didnt want to use their software.

https://www.lexology.com/pro/content/cat-told-uk-claimants-product-was-frankenstein-mess-in-damages-trial#:~:text=CAT%20told%20UK%20claimant's%20product,in%2Dperson%20at%20a%20shop.

Dont know how accurate this info is as its open source but,

The current borrowing fee for PAYPOINT shares is approximately 0.40% (annualised). While this is historically low for many stocks, it represents a "hard-to-borrow" status for a mid-cap company like PayPoint where the available "float" is rapidly shrinking.

Availability: Only about 100,000 shares are currently available to borrow from major lenders. When you relate this to a short position of nearly 3 million shares (4.9% of the 62m total), this means the "supply" of new shares to short has almost completely dried up.

The most immediate pressure on shorts atm is the upcoming 9.9p interim dividend. This represents a collective cash penalty of roughly £297,000 just to keep the trade open through March.

Paypoint have already announced record profits, recovery in parcels, growth in digital and 90m+ EBITDA for the year. The elephant in the room still is the CAT has still not posted the result of its deliberations over global365. This is what would appear to be keeping the shorts involved as the financial metrics are getting better month by month.

The public reporting on the CAT dispute suggests that it will come down heavily in Paypoints favour.... if it does i will see you all at 750/800!!

Https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/news/santander-takes-fresh-swipe-at-city-watchdog-as-its-car-loan-scandal-bill-tops-460m/ar-AA1VDJAN?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=6983363aa6d04f898ddd5613147dd0c9&cvpid=6983366589814ec2860b390a9c995f22&ei=20

Santander moaning about the FCA today in a Guardian article....

It just shows how undervalued and disconected PAY had become compared to its financial metrics, peer businesses and how well they are actually doing (record profits this year?). The large buyback and share consolidation have also helped a lot, with the share base reduced by about 8m (12%?) shares in the last 12 months.

Not only has it not fallen this morning, it has actually opened higher today and now back on the rise. Still far too cheap with shorts still trying to close in a crowded trade.

The FY results and capital markets day to come will be very interesting as Paypoint showcase a growing fintech business with £100m+ EBITDA and an EPS of around 100p per share. The only remaining possible fly in the ointment is the CAT result. I dont believe it will be material, all the commentary I have read suggests either nothing or a minimal settlement (1m - 15m?) that wont be material. But, no one will know until the judgement is released.

So much for Barclays broker note of 420 price target and sell. Wonder if it was acting as a broker for any synthetic swops that the short funds may have had with them and was talking down its own book, hedging by selling PAY?.........

The dark arts of Quants and investment banks like Barclays, eh?

Gruyere, no its not just a reiteration, they have, reviewed the results, maintained their targets and made 7 points in relation to the growth story.

"We maintain our EPS and net debt estimates, noting growth with BankLocal, Royal Mail and InComm. We make 7 points: 1) Target for 5-8% revenue growth implies FD EPS of 109.2p, indicating material upside to our FY 28 estimate of 89.3p; 2) We expect Q4 to be stronger in Love2shop, reflecting revenue recognition of cards; 3) We expect to hear more about strategy at a CMD later this year; 4) At Payments and Banking, Digital net revenue increased 18% and local banking gained momentum; 5) At Shopping, growth in service fees has off-set a reduction in card payments; 6) At Parcels, the operational disruption recovered in Q3 and there was 6.7% transaction growth; and 7) At Love2shop, Love2shop Business traded strongly with 5% billings growth and strong performance with InComm. A CY 26 P/E of 6.4x and ordinary yield of 10.4% are far too cheap. Target price 1100p"

No surprise is it really, the business is doing well having navigated the recent storm regarding parcels, the ecommerce units (obconnect etc) are growing well, the £100m EBITDA target is in reach, reducing/low net debt and the equity base is going to fall to approx 60m shares due to the ongoing buybacks.

The current shorts Citadel, Two Sigma, PDT, Winton, Connor Clark & Lunn are likely looking at the figures today and doing some covering?

The results are in line with expectations, also, "In the closing quarter, we are focused on finishing strongly and delivering record profits for the year,"

The share buyback continues and it looks like by the time it finishes PAY will have cut the equity base by approx 20% to 60m shares.

Digital grew very well and overall the 100m EBITDA target looks like it will come sooner rather than later?

And boom, up 6% at open. See if it lasts. People selling the results yesterday........

The main game here is still the CAT result.....

The only conclusion I am drawing is that you are chatting crap and the volatility atm is just "noise".

The results whilst important are not the main event. This update will continue to suggest the business is working well, continuing growth and the road to 100p EPS is still in sight. The on going buy back and 12/13 share consolidation after the royal mail deal have reduced the number of shares significantly, this will have a big affect on accounting and EPS figures.

But, the main event will still be the CAT conclusion. Until this is settled and any quantum/liability decided, the share price will stagnate and be liable to sudden moves......

Liberty, thank you, had to read up on that to understand it fully, especially as you said it "loses value" if it is over 5 year old.

"Under Basel/CRR (the regulatory framework that applies in the UK and EU), Tier 2 subordinated debt qualifies at 100 % of its value so long as it has more than five years to maturity. Once it enters the final five years before maturity, its regulatory capital recognition is reduced (amortised) each year by 20%"

As such it would affect the Tier 1 capital levels, yes?

Smart move at the current time, gives them certainty going forward and preserves Tier 1 capital....

Whist Wednesday will be important, the CAT decision will be the main mover of the share price when the result is known.

if the CAT judgement goes wrong then PAY could be on the end of a hefty bill. In fact anything major would likely require large a rights issue or bankrupt them.

Will it be 170m? Unlikely. Ofwat have never made a formal finding against Paypoint for breaching competition law and it is unlikely the CAT will now.

Utilita have already settled with Paypoint despite being part of the same litigation as Global 365 and have actually now entered into a 5 year contract with them and accepted an undisclosed sum.

Paypoint have continually stated that they will win and there is no basis for Global365s claim.

PayPoint’s defence counsel argued that Global-365 fundamentally over-estimated the market opportunity and that its product was not yet market-ready. PayPoint suggested that energy suppliers simply weren’t interested in it.

Also, Paypoints legal team pointed out that "an internal Global-365 email by a quality-assurance tester in 2021 that described the company’s own SMARTprepay software as a “complicated Frankenstein mess”

This is why I believe Utilita settled and why Global-365 didn’t;

Utilita,already had customers, already had volumes, already had a working product and could show actual lost margin

Whereas Global-365 is trying to prove a missed market entry, are depending heavily on hypothetical success in a notoriously tight and hard to enter market and as can be seen by the Paypoint defence, vulnerable to internal-document attacks.

So, £172m? On the balance of it, even if something is proven or the CAT Tribuneral find something, the damages will be minimal (say £0 - £10m) and not material in any way.

But, pay your money, take your chance. The risks are known, as is the upside of 850+

If it goes pete tong, nobody can say they were not warned or informed......

So, the CAT is not like the court of apeal or the supreme court, the decisions can take up to 6 - 12 months. The approximately seven-month wait since the hearing ended is consistent with the complexity of standalone competition damages claims, which often involve extensive expert economic evidence and "difficult and finely balanced" legal analysis.

From the CAT site;

"Cases before the Tribunal often raise complicated issues and may involve a significant number of parties so it may be difficult to know at the outset how long a particular case will last. However the Tribunal does seek to manage the cases tightly and, in general aims, to complete “straightforward” cases in less than nine months."

So, next Wednesdays trading announcement is very important currently, with the CAT resolution the outstanding risk.

Apparently Barclays have put a broker note with a target price of 420 and a sell rating on the 07th Jan. I cant see it as its behind a paywall at investing.com https://uk.investing.com/news/pro/barclays-maintains-paypoint-at-underweight-with-a-price-target-of-420-4441602

But, another point of view here on this Youtube podcast - Paypoint "silly" valued - 38:40 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=amDy_b8xxmM and Panmure Gordon posted a target price of 1100 on Nov 20th 2025 saying that Paypoint were undervalued.

Lets see what happens Wednesday next week when the trading announcment is posted 28/01/2026. Then all the company needs is a good CAT judgement and hopefully a bit of a short squeeze to amuse us holders? Its a big difference between 420 and 1100, someone is wrong, lets hope its barclays....

Looks like RBC have retained Knots services for legal/financial advice!

"With so many different parties (on both sides of the fence), it is difficult to see how someone will not take this to judicial review," RBC said. "This will lead to a pausing of compensation payments and a potential multi-year delay."