Member Info for StoneFold

Could the spotters as HH say whether the pump was in use today 7:33 to 7:56 and again between 7:59 to 8:12 BST
and if so was it running at approx. 2 cycles per minute?

Something running at 2 cycles per minute from 3:05 to 6:10pm.

http://www.earthquakes.bgs.ac.uk/helicorder/heli_dir_shz/HORS_SHZ_GB_00.2018080700.gif

https://twitter.com/seismo_steve/status/1026740460684042241
Parts of thread in which Stephen Hicks replies to questions.

".....Nope, definitely no clear answer. The sequence of events doesn't match with the activity at Horse Hill - unless there is a hugely delayed response from the first flow tests in 2016 - but that seems very unlikely.

1:02 AM - 7 Aug 2018 from Southampton, England ......"

".........Yes, there is a temporal correlation with the start-up of production and injection at Brockham but it seems that the injection volumes are too low and the time between this and the first earthquake too short, and too far away in distance to have caused a stress increase.
7 Aug 2018 ....."

"....... Unless there are more events, we probably just won't know for sure. The situation is definitely not as clear cut as the Cuadrilla induced earthquake(s) in 2011 that occurred within just a few hundred meters of the well at the same time as hydraulic fracture simulation activity.
.7 Aug 2018 ..."

Banshee,

Perhaps there are tantric tremors occurring in Sussex.

Ibug,
Sorry I did not see any earlier posts in the thread, I'll have a look at the videos this evening.

Ibug,

For clarity, the "they" that I am referring to is the
British Geological Survey
Whose website
http://www.bgs.ac.uk
you included a link to.

So "they" did show the record for HORS (Horse Hill) from 18th July in the dropdown list
http://earthquakes.bgs.ac.uk/helicorder/heli.html

Where it was easily available to view for approx. ten days.

So your statement that "they"
"didn't show the records"
is false.

Ibug,
"..You have to wonder why they didn't show the records for the 18th July at Horse Hill!.."

They did.

If you were less lazy, you would notice that they only keep a few days worth of data available for display on the website for all the stations.
Currently there is today's and the previous 9 days data.

The dates the stations were installed (data feed available online within 24 hours)

RUSH 11-07-2018
HORS 12-07-2018
GATW 31-07-2018
STAN 01-08-2018
BRDL 02-08-2018

Before that the nearest was HMNX.

STAN is located at the presumed epicentre.

There is a photo of the readings from RUSH and HORS, it is tweeted on 17th and 18 July.
https://twitter.com/seismo_steve?lang=en

---

How they differentiate between a valid tremor signal and the variety of man-made surface noise I don't know.
When looking at HORS I wondered whether the surface noise was caused by equipment activity on the nearby HH site (generators pumps etc.) but it might just be road traffic.

Expecting first gold pour from the new Elikhulu plant on 16-08-2018.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g5u_xtv3L4s
30-07-2018

It is worth noting that once control of a company is achieved then transfer pricing may be applied in such a way to benefit the shareholders of a company on one side of production sales, and to disadvantage the shareholders of a company on the other side.
Ukrnafta shareholders lose as their oil is sold artificially cheaply.
Privat group shareholders gain when they buy that oil.

http://enkorr.com.ua/a/news/Privat_sekonomil_46_mln_grn_na_pokupke_iyulskoy_nefti_Ukrnafti/233255
26-07-2018

Superman86, A fair question.

The answer giving the reasons for two of the resignations was in today's RNS.
The answer for the third resignation is easy if you know anything about JKX.

He was "...executive chairman, of Zoltav Resources Inc. He was substantially involved in the company's turnaround and the appointment of a new board and management team whereupon he stood down from his role in September 2016. ..."

===

"..he was an independent non-executive director of JSC KazMunaiGas Exploration Production ("KMG EP") until it delisted from the London Stock Exchange in May this year..."

===

JKX is a operationally a good company but has been embattled for a number of years by Russian and Ukrainian oligarchs, who are IMO trying to gain control without paying a fair price.
The ongoing struggle for control has involved many changes to its board, which is no reflection on those directors. Currently a Russian shareholder is selling at a loss to a Ukrainian who has business dealings with the largest Ukrainian shareholder, who is often being taken to court by the Ukrainian Government who don't like the way he operates his businesses.

https://www.ft.com/content/84a2a7c4-67e3-3597-973e-cb4d3403aa33
28-01-2016
"
JKX’s entire board overhauled

Nathalie Thomas

The entire board of JKX, the London-listed oil and gas company, has been ousted after shareholders voted in favour of proposals brought forward by Proxima, one of its biggest investors, for a shake up of the company.

Paul Davies, who was JKX’s chief executive, has been replaced alongside all other board members, with Thomas Reed, a former chief financial officer of Ruspetro, becoming the new chief executive.

The new board was put forward by Proxima, a Russia fund led by Vladimir Tatarchuk, a former banker, who blamed the former management for the 90 per cent slump in the company’s shares in the last five years.

The company’s former board claimed that Proxima was spearheading an attempt to take over JKX and its assets without paying a premium, likening the move to a “corporate raid reminiscent of the Soviet era”.

Following an extraordinary general meeting, JKX said its chairman Nigel Moore, chief executive Paul Davies, commercial director Peter Dixon, technical director Martin Miller and Lord Oxford, one of its non-executive directors had all stepped down.

Cynthia Dubin, its finance director also resigned “with immediate effect” earlier today, as did non-executive Dipesh Shah. Richard Murray and Alastair Ferguson, two other non-executive directors, have also decided to depart.

"
===

https://twitter.com/seismo_steve?lang=en

See tweets July 22nd and July 26th.

---

Likely cause based on the small amount of data acquired = Normal fault system in sedimentary strata at depth of a few hundred metres.

My interpretation is that the Horley/Gatwick section is sinking or the Newdigate/golf course section is rising, either way it is a natural occurrence.

Clearly this weight imbalance could be resolved by building a large town at Newdigate and a major airport centred at the golf course, or by extracting a large weight of oil from Horse Hill ;-)

A good choice for the next Chairman, already a shareholder, and with experience in large project fund raising, pipelines and managing Wytch Farm which is the largest western European onshore oil field, situated in the south of England.

RNS

"...today announces the proposed appointment of Alastair Ferguson as a non-executive director and Chairman-designate of the Company following the proposed retirement of Neil Ritson as Director and Chairman...."

"..Mr Ferguson is a Chartered Engineer and has over 40 years' experience in the oil and gas industry, the last seven of which have been spent in various Chairman and non-executive director positions. He spent 25 years with BP plc and a further 8 years with the TNK BP joint venture, based in Moscow, where he held a variety of senior business roles. Most recently, he was an Independent Non-Executive Director on the board of JSC KazMunaiGaz Exploration Production, a subsidiary of the Kazach state-owned gas company and has served as Executive Chairman of AIM-traded Zoltav Resources Inc. and as non-executive director of JKX Oil & Gas plc (traded on the London Stock Exchange's Main Market). Mr Ferguson has considerable commercial management experience and has specific expertise in business development and managing projects in complex political environments."

".Mr Ferguson currently holds 5,714,286 ordinary shares in the capital of Solo Oil plc equating to approximately 1.21% of the Company's current issued share capital.."

"...Alastair started his career in 1978 and as drilling and petroleum engineer with BP and took up the role of Operations Manager at Wytch Farm in 1987........"

==========
Wytch Farm
Sandstone plus Kimmeridge Clay clay/limestone oil reservoirs.
More than 100 wells (including producers and water injectors) were being operated from 13 well sites.
The fluid output from the well sites is sent via infield pipelines to the gathering station located at Wytch Heath where crude oil and liquid petroleum gases (LPGs) are separated. Oil from two other Perenco-operated smaller oil fields namely Wareham and Kimmeridge is also transported to the Wytch Farm gathering station for processing.
Oil from the gathering station is sent via a 91km long and 16-inch diameter pipeline via the Fawley refinery to the Hamble oil terminal.

The ultimate recoverable oil reserves (including cumulative production and remaining reserves) of the Wytch Farm oil field as of 2003 were estimated at 480 million barrels.

I would expect the funding requirements to be like the drilling, that is in two stages, first CH1 then about a year later CH2 or NT3 etc.

The reason for the gap is that is the 3D seismic won't start until the farm out agreement is complete in December 2018.
Then the final results from the processing of the seismic won't be ready for approx. nine months.
Then add another couple of months to study the information and select the best drill sites.
Then apply for permits, get the sites prepared and get hold of a rig.

It would be a waste of money to drill wells then months later after looking at the seismic data, realise you had not drilled the best targets.

willowpillow,
75% from Portland and 25% from Kimmeridge.

It is just a guess, the proper figures will appear later this year from people that will get the actual EWT data.

Jettydog, The main point of the calculation is to determine which company would on paper give the best profit.

If all the assumptions I made were correct, for instance the current share prices, the number of shares in issue, the working interest in HH and that the companies other assets did not change value, then that ranking of profitability would remain valid.

The actual profit is a secondary matter, it may be higher or lower than my estimate.

There are no money back guarantees here.

Part 2 [re-posted to correct wrong figures: ]
(section 4 -other values £)
(section 7 -new mcap £)
(section 7 -new share price pence)

1)
Ticker == Shares issued == Current share price pence

DOR == 50,420,109 == 9.596
SOLO == 471,953,594 == 2.495
ALBA == 2,848,614,934 == 0.595
PRIM == 2,796,619,343 == 0.167
GUN == 4,882,924,490 == 0.045
UKOG == 5,207,240,526 == 2.17
TELL == 240,520,000 == 594.376

2)
Ticker == % of Horse Hill that each company owns

DOR == 6.5
SOLO == 9.75
ALBA == 11.765
PRIM == 3.25
GUN == 1.3
UKOG == 32.435
TELL == 35.0

3)
100% of Horse Hill was last valued at £30,769,230 when SOLO bought 5% of HHDL for £1 million.

Ticker == Last value of Horse Hill that each company owns £.

DOR == 1,999,999.95
SOLO == 2,999,999.93
ALBA == 3,619,999.91
PRIM == 999,999,98
GUN == 399,999.99
UKOG == 9,979,999.75
TELL == 10,769,230.50

4)
For each company the mcap. is made up in part by the last HH value and by the other value of projects/assets that company holds.

Ticker == mcap £ == Other value £.

DOR == 4,838,313 == 2,838,313.71
SOLO == 11,775,251 == 8,775,251.23
ALBA == 16,949,258 == 13,329,258.95
PRIM == 4,670,354 == 3,670,354.33
GUN == 2,197,316 == 1,797,316.03
UKOG == 112,997,119 == 103,017,119.66
TELL == 1,429,593,155 == 1,418,823,924.70

5)
If you now buy £100 worth of shares in each of the seven HH companies, that £100 would consist of:

Ticker == last HH value £ == Other value £

DOR == 41.34 == 58.66
SOLO == 25.48 == 74.52
ALBA == 21.36 == 78.64
PRIM == 21.41 == 78.59
GUN == 18.20 == 81.80
UKOG == 8.83 == 91.17
TELL == 0.75 == 99.25

6)
For the sake of this calculation the other value remains unchanged.
Following a successful EWT, confirmation of commerciality and recoverable reserves, and Near to the start of production the new value of HH by my estimate would be £100 million.
This would give an increase figure for the value of the HH part of the £100 invested. From which a profit figure can be produced.

Ticker == new HH value £ == Other value £ == New Total £ == Profit £

DOR == 134.34 == 58.66 == 193.01 == 93.01
SOLO == 82.80 == 74.52 == 157.32 == 57.32
ALBA == 69.41 == 78.64 == 148.06 == 48.06
PRIM == 69.59 == 78.59 == 148.18 == 48.18
GUN == 59.16 == 81.80 == 140.96 == 40.96
UKOG == 28.70 == 91.17 == 119.87 == 19.87
TELL == 2.45 == 99.25 == 101.69 == 1.69

7)
This gives the implied new mcap. and new share price

Ticker == mcap. £ == New Share Price pence

DOR == 9,338,313.71 == 18.521
SOLO == 18,525,251.23 == 3.925
ALBA == 25,094,258.95 == 0.881
PRIM == 6,920,354.33 == 0.247
GUN == 3,097,316.03 == 0.063
UKOG == 135,452,119.66 == 2.601
TELL == 1,453,823,924.70 == 604.450

Only for entertainment - DYOR

Also

Estimated recovery factor 30%
Which gives Estimated recoverable reserves 3,900,000 bbl. oil

I thought that I had posted this here earlier as it is relevant to UKOG.

Estimated profit example for investing £100 in each of the seven Horse Hill companies.

6.

For the sake of this calculation the other value remains unchanged.
Following a successful EWT, confirmation of commerciality and recoverable reserves, and Near to the start of production the new value of HH by my estimate would be £100 million.
This would give an increase figure for the value of the HH part of the £100 invested. From which a profit figure can be produced.

Ticker == new HH value £ == Other value £ == New Total £ == Profit £

DOR == 134.34 == 58.66 == 193.01 == 93.01
SOLO == 82.80 == 74.52 == 157.32 == 57.32
ALBA == 69.41 == 78.64 == 148.06 == 48.06
PRIM == 69.59 == 78.59 == 148.18 == 48.18
GUN == 59.16 == 81.80 == 140.96 == 40.96
UKOG == 28.70 == 91.17 == 119.87 == 19.87
TELL == 2.45 == 99.25 == 101.69 == 1.69

Only for entertainment - DYOR

For calculation detail see post HH profit estimate 24-07-2018 15:55
on the SOLO board

http://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.asp?ShareTicker=SOLO&thread=B1ED39D9-EAAD-4229-9F92-64192A4D1E0D&status=reply

Estimated profit example for investing £100 in each of the seven Horse Hill companies.

6.

For the sake of this calculation the other value remains unchanged.
Following a successful EWT, confirmation of commerciality and recoverable reserves, and Near to the start of production the new value of HH by my estimate would be £100 million.
This would give an increase figure for the value of the HH part of the £100 invested. From which a profit figure can be produced.

Ticker == new HH value £ == Other value £ == New Total £ == Profit £

DOR == 134.34 == 58.66 == 193.01 == 93.01
SOLO == 82.80 == 74.52 == 157.32 == 57.32
ALBA == 69.41 == 78.64 == 148.06 == 48.06
PRIM == 69.59 == 78.59 == 148.18 == 48.18
GUN == 59.16 == 81.80 == 140.96 == 40.96
UKOG == 28.70 == 91.17 == 119.87 == 19.87
TELL == 2.45 == 99.25 == 101.69 == 1.69

Only for entertainment - DYOR

For calculation detail see post HH profit estimate 24-07-2018 15:55
on the SOLO board

http://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.asp?ShareTicker=SOLO&thread=B1ED39D9-EAAD-4229-9F92-64192A4D1E0D&status=reply

Estimated profit example for investing £100 in each of the seven Horse Hill companies.

6.

For the sake of this calculation the other value remains unchanged.
Following a successful EWT, confirmation of commerciality and recoverable reserves, and Near to the start of production the new value of HH by my estimate would be £100 million.
This would give an increase figure for the value of the HH part of the £100 invested. From which a profit figure can be produced.

Ticker == new HH value £ == Other value £ == New Total £ == Profit £

DOR == 134.34 == 58.66 == 193.01 == 93.01
SOLO == 82.80 == 74.52 == 157.32 == 57.32
ALBA == 69.41 == 78.64 == 148.06 == 48.06
PRIM == 69.59 == 78.59 == 148.18 == 48.18
GUN == 59.16 == 81.80 == 140.96 == 40.96
UKOG == 28.70 == 91.17 == 119.87 == 19.87
TELL == 2.45 == 99.25 == 101.69 == 1.69

Only for entertainment - DYOR

For calculation detail see post HH profit estimate 24-07-2018 15:55
on the SOLO board

http://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.asp?ShareTicker=SOLO&thread=B1ED39D9-EAAD-4229-9F92-64192A4D1E0D&status=reply

Estimated profit example for investing £100 in each of the seven Horse Hill companies.

6.

For the sake of this calculation the other value remains unchanged.
Following a successful EWT, confirmation of commerciality and recoverable reserves, and Near to the start of production the new value of HH by my estimate would be £100 million.
This would give an increase figure for the value of the HH part of the £100 invested. From which a profit figure can be produced.

Ticker == new HH value £ == Other value £ == New Total £ == Profit £

DOR == 134.34 == 58.66 == 193.01 == 93.01
SOLO == 82.80 == 74.52 == 157.32 == 57.32
ALBA == 69.41 == 78.64 == 148.06 == 48.06
PRIM == 69.59 == 78.59 == 148.18 == 48.18
GUN == 59.16 == 81.80 == 140.96 == 40.96
UKOG == 28.70 == 91.17 == 119.87 == 19.87
TELL == 2.45 == 99.25 == 101.69 == 1.69

Only for entertainment - DYOR

For calculation detail see post HH profit estimate 24-07-2018 15:55
on the SOLO board

http://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.asp?ShareTicker=SOLO&thread=B1ED39D9-EAAD-4229-9F92-64192A4D1E0D&status=reply